Tracking #NE02

by Street Sweeper on October 31, 2014

NE02The latest we have heard in Nebraska’s 2nd District Congressional race is that tracking polls show Republican Lee Terry down no more than 1% on Democrat Brad Ashford.

And trends showing the gap narrowing all week.

That is good news for the Terry folks, who have been battling back for some time now. And we would add that 1 point is significant here. Five points down could be just a little more scary. (Boo!)

So you were looking for encouragement Terry camp?
Is a one-point race close enough for you???

So now we ask…

Can Sarpy County bail Terry out again?
Will North Omaha show up for Ashford?
Does the Dan Frei “endorsement” make much of a difference for Terry?
Will the Minimum Wage absentee voters pull it out for Ashford?
Will the Steve Laird option on the ballot hurt Terry?
(On that last note, we would still guess not, unless it is crazy close.)

We will update you as soon as we get answers to these and other questions.

***

It seems local female leaders read Leavenworth St.’s last post regarding misogynist Chris Jerram, featured in the recent Brad Ashford for Congress ad.

They have mailed the following letter to Brad:

Dear Mr. Ashford,

Watching your most recent television advertisement, we were appalled to see featured in your ad Omaha City Councilman Chris Jerram, who last year infamously displayed a sexist, misogynistic and vulgar t-shirt about Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert. That such a person would be featured by your campaign in any way is reprehensible, but the fact that the advertisement in question touts your record of so-called positive support for women’s issues only adds insult to injury. We are writing to request you take down the television advertisement immediately and ensure Councilman Jerram is not featured in any future Ashford campaign material.

We find it deeply troubling that you chose to feature in your campaign advertising someone who was caught degrading, insulting, and sexualizing a respected elected official simply because of her gender. It is the pinnacle of hypocrisy and the women of Nebraska deserve better.

We look forward to your prompt action in removing the advertisement and scrubbing Councilman Jerram from your campaign material.

Sincerely,

Mary Daub
​Wife, Former Congressman and Mayor Hal Daub

Joyce Simmons
National Committeewoman, Republican National Committee

Gail Werner-Robertson
President and CEO, GWR Wealth Management ​

You do have to wonder at what point the Ashford camp said, “Hmm, Chris Jerram. Now THERE’s the guy we want to bolster us on women’s issues. Maybe he can make US a t-shirt!

***

The big legislative race to watch will be the District 8 between Democrat state Senator Burke Harr and leading primary vote getter, Republican Gwenn Aspen.

We chuckled a bit at Joe Jordan’s characterization over on Watchdog that each was spending hundreds of thousands of campaign dollars “looking for that $12,000 a year Unicameral salary”.

We would suggest that anyone running for the legislature is NOT doing it for the $12K per year. If you were looking to make some extra cash, rummaging through Warren Buffet’s couch cushions could probably get you there faster than a Unicameral gig.

The thing about the Leg races — like City Council — is that you can win or lose by actual face to face contact with voters. Walking these districts make all the difference. Probably more so than all of the cash raised and spent.

Watch this one closely Tuesday night.

***

We don’t think we posted these two before, so just for your afternoon viewing pleasure, here is one of Lee Terry’s ads regarding ObamaCare…

And then here is Ashford confirming that he will be a solid vote with Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama…

***

Remember to follow us on the Twitter for instant updates!

{ 12 comments }

Ashford and Jerram 01

The latest ad in Democrat Brad Ashford’s Nebraska 2nd District congressional campaign says Ashford is better than Congressman Lee Terry on women’s issues.

But the ad also features Ashford sitting and chatting with Omaha City Councilman Chris Jerram — who infamously displayed a t-shirt depicting Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert as a “stripper”.

Stothert strip shirt 02 - Jerram

Leavenworth St. broke the story (the OWH’s account notwithstanding) of Jerram sitting in a bar grinning, holding up the t-shirt which read, “Jean Quit Stripping”, and showed an image of a woman depicting Stothert wearing a bikini, hanging from a “stripper pole.”

The shirt also stated that it was “Sponsored by Suck My Private Sector”.

Stothert strip shirt 01

And now Ashford features Jerram in his ad for Congress.
Wonder what sort of advice Jerram is giving…

Ashford and Jerram 02

{ 18 comments }

Closing arguments

by Street Sweeper on October 30, 2014

New 30 second ads out in the #NE02 race.
See Lee Terry’s spot here:

This is an accurate spot regarding Ashford’s position.
Will it make the difference at this point?
Not sure.

This is the argument most Republican Senate candidates with a tough race — like in Iowa and Kansas — are making. If the Democrat wins, the Congress hangs in the balance.

It is a much harder sell for Terry in the House race, where that national dynamic isn’t really being sold.

***

And Brad Ashford comes out strong on the issues against Lee Terry, just like the OWH and his other supporters point out.
Oh, wait. No he doesn’t.
He again says, “Dang straight.”

Here is the DCCC’s spot…

And here is the Ashford camp’s spot, with Lincoln’s Kathy Campbell, from Jeff Fortenberry’s district, telling the people of the 2nd District that she doesn’t like Lee Terry.

What could be more convincing?

***

As we noted yesterday on the Twitter, Stu Rothenberg has changed his prediction on #NE02 from “Pure Tossup” to “Tossup/Tilts Democratic”.

Our guess is that he was waiting for some actual polling evidence to show what most believe — that Ashford holds the current polling lead. And, as we noted, even more than the straight up, “Who will you vote for?” question is the “Favorable/Unfavorable”, where Lee Terry is tanking.

It is THAT rating that gets the blood flowing for most pollsters.
No doubt it got Rothenberg to lean to Ashford.

***

Dave Domina was on Sean Hannity’s radio show yesterday.

First, let us give some props to big Dave for going on this show. He knew he was going into a buzzsaw, but figured it was a national audience, so why not. And Dave thinks he is smarter than everyone else, so he plowed right in.

We did chuckle a bit when Domina was exasperated to announce that he voted for Barack Obama twice, and gives him a 7 out of 10 rating as a President. Domina was almost angry that he had to say it.

And Domina extensively defended his record of taking a former Nazi as a client.
He also staunchly defended his TV ad where a comatose person was wearing a bright green Domina for Senate t-shirt.
And he laughed at the idea that U.S. borders needed to be further secured.

Hannity also needled Domina with the current poll numbers that show him 20 points down. Dave said they were going to shock the world on Tuesday.

And that’s fine (and delusional), but you gotta come up with a better line than that. Domina’s such an evidence driven guy, he could have pointed out some other times polls were wrong, that this poll was off, that Democrats have a voting lead or some such. He came off particularly weak there.

And then Hannity got into making bets with him, where he could have laughed it off a little, and gone to whatever strong suit he thinks he has. Instead he got angry and responded, “Mr. Hannity I wont’ take part in illegal wagering on your program and I decline.

Mmm OK Dave. Party on.

***

We will update when there is news!
And follow us on Twitter for instant updates!

{ 14 comments }

“He worships my [unintelligible].”

by Street Sweeper on October 29, 2014

sarcasmdetectorsimpsonsIs it impossible for reporters or newsies or commenters or what have you to note saracasm?

Do they only get it if they clearly get a “#sarcasm” or “<sarcasm>…</sarcasm>” inserted in a statement for them?

Case in point, the Nikko Jenkins “endorsement” of Lee Terry.
See what we did there?
We put the word “endorsement” in quotes because Jenkins didn’t “endorse” Terry “for real”.
He was being SARCASTIC.

But you wouldn’t know that from reading press account of Jenkins’ court room statement:

  • KMTV: Nikko Jenkins says ‘vote for Lee Terry’ in court
  • Watchdog: Nikko Jenkins in court: ‘Vote for Lee Terry’
  • Roll Call: Nikko Jenkins Endorses Lee Terry
  • Cook Political Report: “Probably not the endorsement headline you want”
  • LJS: “”Vote Lee Terry guys, greatest Republican ever.” — Nikko Jenkins. No but really, he said that.”

One reporter from Channel 3 couched his tweet a little, saying “Nikko Jenkins in court today, joking or not, says he backs @LEETERRYNE. “Vote Lee Terry guys, greatest Republican ever,” Jenkins said.

Joking or not?
“...Or not“?????

Crazy man Nikko ALSO said of Terry,

“He worships my [unintelligible].”

Was that “ass” or “shit” or “tattooed face” or “ethereal presence”?
Help us out here KMTV.

This reminds us that all reporters are 3rd grade girls out on the playground who say, “You LOVE Booger Billy, don’t you????!!!!!!
And then the deadpanned response is, “Ohhhh yes. I am DEEPLY in love with him…
And the reporters squeal (and in the modern world, Tweet), “OHMYGOD! She admitted she LOVES HIM!!!!!!

We recently went through this after using a joking image of a serial killer next to a local radio host.

Point being, here are serious, we assume educated, reporters saying, “Oooh! This looks bad! A murderer just ENDORSED Lee Terry! Oooh! He ENDORSED him! We heard it!!!!!

We feel like Mugatu here!

***

As long as we are talking extended goofiness, here is the Lincoln Journal Star’s headline telling us how awesome Amanda McGill would be as State Auditor because she’s a woman and how Democrats…well, let us just read the headline:

Democrats seek more women in Nebraska government

Ya got that? MORE is your key word there.
But let us delve into the article:

This year, three women are running for positions in that exclusive club: lieutenant governor nominee Jane Raybould, auditor candidate Amanda McGill and attorney general hopeful Janet Stewart.

Each is running as a Democrat.

They are joined by seven women running for state Legislature: Laura Ebke of Crete and Patty Pansing Brooks of Lincoln, along with Omaha-area candidates Carol Blood, Stacy Ryan, Joni Craighead, Gwenn Aspen and incumbent Sen. Lydia Brasch.

On the officially nonpartisan legislative ticket, all but Blood and Pansing Brooks are Republican.

So, let us do a little math here:

5 Democrat women are running for office in Nebraska.
5 Republican women are running for office in Nebraska.

But the Democrats want more?
Seems to us, that the Democrats actually want the same number.
And we would argue that the odds of Republicans actually ELECTING more women is greater.

<sarcasm>But we will have to analyze the polls on that one.</sarcasm>

***

We are convinced that the media’s spin from state Senator Steve Lathrop’s hearings today will determine how Governor Dave Heineman is viewed in all of this.

That is nothing, but especially here, where Lathrop is working court room style, but Heineman will have a pulpit to speak from later.

And does this affect Heineman and the UNL gig?
We will be watching.

{ 12 comments }

New #NE02 Poll

by Street Sweeper on October 29, 2014

Terry-Ashford 01A new poll is out from a Democrat polling firm, for Nebraska’s 2nd District race.
Here are the toplines:

Brad Ashford (D): 46%
Lee Terry (R): 41%
Steve Laird: 6%
Not sure: 7%

The Margin of Error on the poll, according to the pollster, is 5.1%

If you then want to take the poll at face value, that puts the race in a virtual dead heat.

However, a few notes about their survey of 365 Likely Voters.

Their sample was 33% Republican, 31% Democrat and 36% Independents.
Our understanding is that Independents will represent 16% of voters, at best.

Then their county breakdown went like this:
30% – Eastern Douglas County
53% – Western Douglas County
17% – Sarpy County

We find that to undersample the GOP stronghold in Sarpy County as well.

As noted by Roll Call, the poll “was conducted by DFM, a Minnesota-based polling firm that polled for North Dakota Democrats in 2012.

The poll of 365 Likely Voters was taken October 21-25.

***

From what we hear from our sources, the race is still tight.

The latest we hear is that Terry’s numbers among women have jumped in the past few weeks.
We had heard, anecdotally, that the Terry camp has been focusing their message to women.

Considering all that’s in play, that’s as much info as we can cobble together these days.

***

We will say that Terry’s Favorable/Unfavorable numbers, no matter the poll metrics, are not good.
They broke down 34/54.
Ashford’s were 40/34 (which frankly seemed a little high to us).

Senator Deb Fischer’s Fav/Unfav taken in this poll were surprising at 36/37.
We don’t know any particular reason her numbers would be that low, which also fuels our suspicions about this poll.

***

We will leave it there for now.
Check back as we will likely have more to post, likely around noon.

And follow us on Twitter!

{ 9 comments }

The Latest Polls

October 28, 2014

First, a quick Separated at Birth… Democrat Senate candidate, and chief anti-Keystone pipeline lawyer, Dave Domina’s campaign logo.. And the logo for TransCanada, the maker of the Keystone XL Pipeline! That’s hilarious, no? Ya think the Domina peeps had TransCanada on the brain just a little when they came up with that? Same color scheme, [...]

Read the full article →

Steep grade ahead

October 27, 2014

For campaigns coming down to the wire, this will be both the longest and shortest week of your political life. Enjoy! At least the weather’s nice! *** A story by the AP in the LJS confirms what we noted about the Minimum Wage vote in Nebraska: It is proposed completely to turnout Democrat voters. Its [...]

Read the full article →

Calling BS on Becka

October 24, 2014

Yesterday on his radio show on the Mighty 1290 KOIL, Tom Becka fleshed out his reasoning for why he is voting for Brad Ashford in Nebraska’s 2nd District Congressional race. (Click here, and go to the 2 segments from 10/23 on Lee Terry, to hear the replays.) And we are calling bullsh*t. The gist of [...]

Read the full article →

Democrat ad flood

October 23, 2014

The Nebraska Dems have a new wave of ads up. Let’s take a look! *** Democrat Governor candidate Chuck Hassebrook has a new negative ad up of people pretending to listen to him. See it here: Pols from both parties do these spots (though the Dems are taking advantage of them here) and they’re generally [...]

Read the full article →

Bombing the Waves

October 22, 2014

You can’t watch an episode of “Boating Naked” or “Afraid to Cook Naked” or “Naked with Thomas the Tank Engine” these days without getting hit square in the mug with a political ad. Let us take a look at a few of the latest! *** First, from Lee Terry, a new ad on the topic [...]

Read the full article →

Two Weeks

October 20, 2014

If you’re on the Ben Sasse Senate campaign right now, you are dreaming of your next gig and how you feel about DC being the most expensive city in the country. If you’re in the Pete Ricketts for Governor camp, you’re still pounding the pavement, but trying to figure out just exactly what might be [...]

Read the full article →