Drawing a Line in the Sand(hills)


Republican 3rd Congressional District Primary Odds!

Adrian Smith 2:1
Jay Vavricek 4:1
John Hanson 10:1

Reasoning:

Adrian Smith

From the curb of Leavenworth Street State Senator Smith seems to be an assertive, aggressive campaigner, and a good fundraiser. He appeals to the social conservatives on the right – the ones who vote in the primary. He also has the cashe – clearing $200K+ in the bank.

Jay Vavricek

The Mayor of Grand Island has the GI voting base, but word is he’s having trouble getting a good message across. If he gets GI, he has a solid base to get the nomination (and these odds could flip). But if Mr. Smith chips away there, V’s chances get slim.

John Hanson

Hanson, TO’s Ag guy, is smart, but not assertive enough for this day to day cut-throat primary. He’s not raising enough money and is primarily relying on TO’s coattails. That, likely, won’t be enough. Hanson is viewed as the Moderate of the group — death to a Nebraska primary candidate (see Bromm, Kurt).

Coming tomorrow!
See this gang’s Separated at Birth photos!

See previous odds for the Senate and Gov’s race.

Note: As mentioned before, this series on odds for the Nebraska elections is for amusement purposes only, and should not be seen as endorsement for illegal gambling or a guide for your NCAA brackets.

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