That he’s retiring from the Senate and NOT running for President:
1000 to 1
That he’s running for re-election to the Senate, and NOT running for President:
500 to 1
That he’s running for President, not bothering with an exploratory committee, and is in it to win it:
30 to 1
That’s he’s forming an exploratory committee for President, but that he’s running full bore and not running for re-election to the Senate (essentially like what Giuliani and McCain did):
5 to 1
That he’s forming some sort of exploratory committee, and leaving his options open until the fall to decide if he’ll continue a Presidential campaign, run instead for re-election to the Senate or just retire all together:
1 to 1
The last one is the CW out there now and seems the most likely. We can’t imagine that with the way his poll numbers are running now, that he’d risk being a lame-duck in the Senate in order to pursue what could be a Quixotic Presidential run. Instead he keeps his Senate prestige, stays on Meet the Press, gets to rub elbows with the other candidates and give his views on the issues of the day, and if it doesn’t work out, he can decide later.
We’d point out that UNO isn’t exactly the setting that one ordinarily associates with a Presidential announcement – but if the weather is nice (it’s supposed to be 65 degrees on Monday!) a possible outdoor setting could work.
It will also be interesting to see what other GOPers are there. Heineman? Bruning? Terry or Fort? Daub? Ricketts?
It should make for an interesting morning.