First of all, at this time we canNOT confirm anything about this poll. We don’t have the cross-tabs, and it is purely on the word of people in the know, whom we trust. So, if that’s not good enough for you, so be it, just ignore it. No problems here.
So we’ve been told that, in Nebraska’s 2nd District…
We’ve felt that way for a while now. But the noise about the Obama campaign seems to be swelling around Omaha, so what to make of it?
First let us look back at the Dem caucuses and then the Dem Primary.
Remember the Obama-thon at the Civic? Barack and Ben Nelson slow dancing? And then the caucuses came around and Dave and Dolly Democrat couldn’t even get in the door to cast their piece of blue paper for Obama.
Obama beats Hillary 67% to 32%.
B.O. wins by 35% ! Ouch!
Then the Primaries came around. Where actual voters cast actual votes.
And Obama wins….but by less than 3%.
So when Obama dropped in fifteen “paid” campaign staffers (what are those wages?), we were at first impressed.
Then we saw that he opened an office! My, that’s never been done in years, we are told.
But guess what?
Is Obama just spending money in Omaha because he has money to spend?
So anyway. We have no doubt that Obama is going to run ads in Iowa, a swing state, and will double up in the Omaha market.
And we can’t doubt the enthusiasm of the Obamaniacs that showed up Wednesday night and disobeyed the cops and blocked traffic and whatnot.
But we are skeptical of Obama’s real chances in the Omaha area. As a local political observer suggested to us, if Obama wins Omaha, it will be after he blew out McCain across the country, and didn’t need the 2nd District’s one vote anyway.
But we think (as of today) that it will be close nationwide. And that NE-2 goes for McCain.
So what does that mean for the Jim Esch campaign, and their Red to Blue money-money-money? Well, some have said that the DCCC could pump as much as $400K into each of their targeted races across the country.
However, what is more likely is that they will NOT spend their money proportionately. They will instead likely spend lots more on the big races, and just a little on the chance races — like Esch’s.
That’s why Esch’s fund raising email, that pointed out the Red to Blue designation, pleads for more money by September 30th. That way they may get some more — maybe matched — by the DCCC into their race. Can they get enough to make a difference on TV? We guess we’ll see…
Finally, we happened to run across this Blair Witch-esque YouTube clip (via our Google reader).
It is Lee Terry giving an impromptu speech to supporters of H.R. 1279, which would “provide funds to States to enable them to increase the wages paid to targeted direct support professionals (i.e. home caregivers) in providing services to individuals with disabilities under the Medicaid Program”.
We thought it was just interesting to see Terry standing out in the rain, pumping up non-Nebraska voters on an issue that he deems important. You probably won’t see it in the news or even on campaign pieces, but this stuff does happen.
He’s not the only one that does this, but there’s one example, nonetheless.