NE-2 stays RED

The voter registration tallies for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District are out (as opposed to those for just Douglas County). They show that the 2nd is still a majority an advantage Republican district:

Of course this shows that, assuming party-line voting, this election will come down to the large number of Independents.
One interesting dynamic in this is the turnout of voters. In 2004 it looked something like this:
R – 72.1%,
D – 65.9%,
I – 56.4%.

Will things tighten up this election? Could be. We’ll see.

The reality of the 10,000 registration advantage for Republicans in heavily military Sarpy County also shows one of the big reasons Jim Esch is trying to frame Lee Terry as soft on veterans support. Of course those are based on out-and-out falsehoods of the Esch camp, but nevertheless…

***

New NRCC ad out entitled, “Jim Esch Doesn’t Care About Us”. Note that it’s to the tune from “Curb Your Enthusiasm”.

See it here:

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On that note of curbing one’s enthusiasm (in this case, the Dems) we’d like to take a look at the recent “Cook Political Report” prognostications.

In the latest from Cook, they draw the NE-2 race between Terry and Esch as a “toss-up”.

That’s an interesting take. We don’t see it that way, but we suppose you could argue it.

But from Cook, we would hope to have some data behind such a claim. It seems to be based on the spending of the parties, Obama’s spending and, most notably, a recent Esch internal poll that no one has actually seen.

So is it worth even giving that sort of “analysis” any credence?

Well, let’s look at their analysis of the Nebraska Senate race:

In find Mike Johanns ahead they said,

Secretary Mike Johanns has seemed in command of the race since the day he announced his candidacy.

There has been a frustrating lack of reliable public polling in this race…

Our sense is that Johanns is over 50 percent, while Kleeb trailing somewhere in the mid- to high- 30s.

So basically it comes down to, here’s the gist were feeling so….here are some numbers. Not based on anything.

Are they correct about that race? Maybe. Maybe not. But when main stream media outlets point to Cook and say, “Cook says it’s a toss up!”, they don’t follow that up with, “Of course it’s based on some sort of gut reaction and not any poling data.”

As we’ve said here on Leavenworth Street, we like more information rather than less. We just ask that if it’s the “less” side, the media restrain themselves.

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45 comments

  1. Anonymous says:

    Seeing as how Kleeb is down double digits in the polls, you would think he would be doing more than sending his Henchman/Stalkers to private Johann’s event’s in Hastings, and pimping himself out at the Wagon Wheel for 23 year-old’s votes. That’s a fine strategy early in the campaign or if you’re leading in the polls, but not down by double digits.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Jim Esch’s supporters have been sayin some pretty nasty things about Leavenworth Street lately. And, ya know, I couldn’t agree with them more!

  3. Anonymous says:

    I guess they just can’t stand that the Republicans have a funner Blog to play on than they do. That Lisa and Kyle guy suck!

  4. Kyle Michaelis says:

    “Funner”? Good lord, SS, what sort of grammar are you teaching your people?

    Anyway, I just wanted to point out that Republicans’ 40.9% in CD 2 is hardly a “majority.” It’s a very weak “plurality” that has Lee Terry scared shitless because he knows which way those 20.1% of independent voters are leaning in this election.

    But, by all means, deceive yourself and your readers if you so choose.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Kyle, Kyle, Kyle tsk tsk… such a potty mouth.

    Oh and, McCain/Johanns/Terry will win, along with Fortenberry and Smith.

    Maybe next time, if you find candidates who have done something the people can identify with.

    Sweeper, thanks for the forum!

  6. Anonymous says:

    Yes, Terry people, pray tell why in heaven’s name do you think the high number of Independents will sway towards Lee Terry? Please explain — this ought to be hillarious.

    Oh, and also, could you please show us the results of the Lee Terry poll he ran over the weekend?

  7. Anonymous says:

    Oh, and fyi, my husband and I count for two registered Republicans in the 2nd district who will be voting for Jim Esch. And I know personally of quite a few more.

  8. Kyle Michaelis says:

    The language was uncalled for. My mother raised me better than that. Apologies to any who might have been offended.

    It was sufficient to say Lee Terry is right to be scared of all those independent voters.

  9. Anonymous says:

    Street Sweeper:

    How many more independents are there this year compared to those other years you listed?

    And do you really think the political climate is the same as those other years? If so, have you been living under a rock? Do you need someone to come and help you out?

    Come on, Street Sweeper, you’re slipping. First you were arguing that drilling in ANWR would actually help someone, anyone, anywhere in any feasible way. Now you’re arguing that independent voters this year are actually leaning towards voting for the republican in the congressional race, Lee Terry? Come on. You’re smarter that both those positions. Right?

  10. Anonymous says:

    I certainly hope Lee Terry is compensating Street Sweeper in some way. Is he listing Leavenworth Street on his fec report as an in-kind? He should! Street Sweeper deserves some kind of compensation/recognition for all this blind devotion towards Lee Terry!

  11. Street Sweeper says:

    I will give you that I’s may be more inclined toward Obama.

    But Jim Esch has not given a single reason why I’s (or D’s for that matter) should vote FOR him.

    Being the anti-Lee Terry won’t get him there.

  12. Anonymous says:

    While you may not think Jim Esch has given independents a reason to vote FOR him, Lee Terry has given them plenty of reason to vote AGAINST him.

    People are mad at Republicans, George W. Bush, Congress, and all of the policies of the last 8 years that have led us to where we are today. And Lee Terry helped George W. the entire time.

  13. Kyle Michaelis says:

    “I will give you that I’s may be more inclined toward Obama.”

    Holy Jesus, SS, did Nebraska’s leading Republican blogger just write that Obama is going to win the 2nd Congressional District?

  14. Street Sweeper says:

    Kyle,

    Did you just call L. St the leading Nebraska GOP blogger? Oh, that’s sweet.
    (but, uh, lay off the bold characters, huh?)

    And since you’re such a stickler for detail, note the word “may”.

    We still think McCain will prevail in NE-2, if that helps you.

  15. Uncle Wiggily says:

    GASP!!

    Liberals saying bad things about the Sweeper and his (most excellent) blog?? I’m shocked – shocked and appalled ….

    I’m gonna hate to see liberals become extinct – what will the adults do for comic relief?

  16. Anonymous says:

    I love when people read my comments here and refer to me as a “Liberal.” I know I always post anonymously, but seriously — I’m a registered Republican who is voting for Jim Esch. And there are lots of us. Be afraid, be very afraid.

  17. Street Sweeper says:

    I think if you have something to say to Kyle, you might want to go to HIS blog to say it, no? I’m sure he would like the comment.

  18. Anonymous says:

    When you lose for attacking a well liked Congressman, you resort to attacking his staff.

    I guess someone should tell Congressman Terry’s wife and kids to watch their backs, there is a limited number of staff to attack and then one can only assume that they will come after a woman and her children as a means to an end.

    You libs really are very mean.

  19. Omaha Repub says:

    I love the anonymous Republicans on this site that say they are voting for Esch. Okay Brad Ashford, we know in the Republican Party to count you and your wife as Dems so Terry already took your vote under consideration. Oh by the way Brad we all will remember your comment in the OWH as being proud about being the one vote that allowed split delegates here in Nebraska. In 2 more years your republican district will thank you on election day for your efforts.

  20. Anonymous says:

    What is the number of voters from each party lost to Independents?

    My guess is that more Independents used to be Republican, but are mad at Bush in general, and the spending in Congress.

    If this guess is true, doesn’t that mean that a larger percentage of I’s are well informed voters and know what Lee Terry’s record really is and are not fooled by the Esch campaign’s attempted smear of Lee’s record? I would think this would be particularly true with the military voters both retired and active.

    The voters know that Lee Terry has not been an advocate for wasteful pork-my goodness, he was even criticized for refusing to ask for Pork after the last election!

  21. macdaddy says:

    Anon 3:55: Why should we be afraid if Republicans vote for Esch? Why should we be afraid of Esch, even if he gets elected? What are you insinuating?

  22. Anonymous says:

    Macdaddy, I was insinuating that the Terry staffers should be afraid that they’re going to lose their jobs. If you are a Terry staffer, it was directed at you. If you’re not a Terry staffer, I guess you don’t need to worry. And sorry I’m so “mean.” I guess I didn’t realize people took comments on this blog so seriously.

  23. Right Wing Professor says:

    I think if you have something to say to Kyle, you might want to go to HIS blog to say it, no? I’m sure he would like the comment.

    Besides, that blog, unlike this one, really needs the traffic.

  24. Kyle Michaelis says:

    RWP-

    I assure you there is no shortage of traffic at NNN – only a whole lot less gossiping.

    This is one of the drawbacks of our site’s registration requirement – although it would definitely help if I had more of a sense of humor as well.

    Sadly, I just don’t see the humor in what (mostly) Republicans have done to our country and our state. While Rome burns, I prefer fighting the fire to fiddling.

  25. Anonymous says:

    If you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen.

    Meaning, if you can’t take the negative comments, then get out.

    Besides, it was Lee and his crazy staff who started the negative personal attacks anyway.

    This Republican is not voting for Terry.

    So, can someone tell me exactly which Social Security tax Esch wants to supposedly raise?

  26. asecurityguard says:

    To help out the good prof, a standard google search for ‘leavenworth street blog’ came back with 66,800 searches. A google search for ‘New Nebraska Network’ search came back with 459,000 searches.

  27. Right Wing Professor says:

    Sadly, I just don’t see the humor in what (mostly) Republicans have done to our country and our state. While Rome burns, I prefer fighting the fire to fiddling.

    Well, see Kyle, that’s the big difference between you and us. Whatever America’s strengths and faults, they’re mostly the result of the actions of Americans, not of our government. Back when I lived on the other side of the pond, during another election, the BBC’s major political correspondent — I don’t remember who it was, but it might have been Jonathan Dimbleby –remarked that politics, while it obsesses politicos, is a minor sideshow in most people’s lives. And he was right, even though Britain is a relatively statist place.

    You can hate the GOP all you want, but neither party has the power to screw up this country. Even though Obama is more of a statist than GWB, he won’t screw it up either. Four years from now, if it turns out he’s elected, we’ll lick our wounds, learn from our mistakes, and go elect someone very different. And life will go on. As long as we mostly work hard, take responsibility for our actions, and act in good faith, we’ll be OK.

  28. Brian T. Osborn says:

    I did a Google search as well (with quotes around the words, which forces a search on the whole string) and got 60,400 for Sweeper’s blog, 23,700 for Kyle’s. Of course I limit my searches to only those in English and Italian so that probably skewed it a bit.

    I might be so bold as to venture that the numbers have recently skewed towards Leavenworth Street since I’ve pretty much limited myself to blogging over here. The replies to posts over on NNN were much greater when I was actively ranting on Kyle’s blog.

    But (ahime!) that good, dear, Democratic woman, the Chair of Howard County, and President of the Nebraska Democratic Women, Marion Bahensky, managed to get me to sign a pledge not to pick on the young ones any more. All that is left for me is to post here on Leavenworth Street where, I might add, I find the competition to be underwhelmingly sub par (Sweeper and, sometimes Uncle Wiggly, excluded.)

  29. Anonymous says:

    Esch is on record as stating at the Bellevue Chamber Debate that it is time we did something like Reagan did (to Social Security).

    What Reagan did was tax the benefits and raise the percent you pay into from every paycheck.

    Taxing benefits and raising the amount to pay in is raising Social Security taxes-even if a Republican President that, apparently, every Democrat strives to be just like, did it first!

  30. Brian T. Osborn says:

    Reagan also committed treason.

    Here’s my logic. Our ships of state, embassies and consulates are considered to be sovereign soil. Iran invaded our embassy in Tehran. Reagan sold arms to Iran during the Iran/Contra deal via his buddy, Oliver North. Therefor, Reagan sold arms to our enemies.

    What is the definition of treason?

  31. Brian T. Osborn says:

    Reagan also committed treason.

    Here’s my logic. Our ships of state, embassies and consulates are considered to be sovereign soil. Iran invaded our embassy in Tehran. Reagan sold arms to Iran during the Iran/Contra deal via his buddy, Oliver North. Therefor, Reagan sold arms to our enemies.

    What is the definition of treason?

  32. Kyle Michaelis says:

    I’m really not too concerned with how NNN sizes up against Leavenworth. But, I would point out that this blog takes its name from a major roadway – certainly not limited to Omaha – that’s bound to register plenty of hits in any online search.

    If you’re really looking for a fair basis of comparison, I’d suggest Googling both sites’ web addresses. Otherwise, take my word for the results:

    leavenworthsteet.blogspot.com = 837
    newnebraska.net = 4,170

    Also, don’t forget NNN’s original address:

    newnebraska.blogspot.com = 1,740

    Another good basis for comparison is our respective authorities on techonrati:

    LS: 17
    NNN: 123

    Now I just feel petty. Take these numbers for what you will. I’ll be the first to admit that the better developed progressive/Democratic blogging community is a huge boost to any of NNN’s results.

  33. Street Sweeper says:

    All I will point out is that this discussion is taking place here on Leavenworth Street, and not on another blog.

    But I would imagine that NNN is much more linked up through the Dem blog network, than L. St. is.

  34. Anonymous says:

    I’m hearing a lot of radio ads by Lee Terry…where’s Esch? Just hangin’ at the slow down…doesn’t have to drive home and he just got his latest subsidy check so he’s buyin’!

  35. Anonymous says:

    So, Anoyn 9:14pm – I pay Social Security tax on 100% of my salary while Lee pays on 65% of his salary.

    Something seems amiss there. The middle class gets soaked and the rich get richer.

    Explain that one.

    Why should the middle class being paying on 100%, while the rich pay less and less towards Social Security. Oh yes, they have the money to hire the lobbyists, etc who write the tax code and pay off the legislators.

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