The poll of 432 likely voters showed the following:
If election were held today who would you vote for?
Jim Suttle: 15%
Not sure/Refused: 26%
Jim Vokal 43%
Hal Daub 35%
Not Sure/Refused 22%
The poll had a breakdown of:
And, interestingly, the City Council district breakdown was as follows:
1 (Suttle): 18%
2 (Brown): 6
3 (Vokal): 14
4 (Gernandt): 13
5 (Welch): 12
6 (Thompson): 24
7 (Sigerson): 14
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(Yes, yes, you’re welcome. No, YOU’RE the best.)
Well, first off, this is Vokal’s polling firm, so Daub and Suttle are both going to say it’s slanted, or no good or whatever.
That’s fine, but at least lets see some reasoning behind that. Otherwise, we see no reason to discount what seems to be a valid poll, using standard polling analysis. (Which we’ll assume was used here. This isn’t an internet poll or a, hurumph, robo-call poll.)
Second, it shows what most of already know: Hal Daub is a polarizing figure in Omaha politics.
Some people love him — 51% favorables, with 15% saying he’s “one of the best”.
But, he also has (compared to the challengers) high unfavorables, at 37%.
And only 12% couldn’t rate/didn’t know/not sure on Daub.
Compare that to Vokal, where 32% couldn’t come up with an opinion on him.
(55% said they didn’t have any thoughts on Suttle. Ouch.)
Third, it shows that Daub has a decent lead in the three-way race, but potentially, Vokal takes the lead in a Daub-Vokal matchup.
Now, we say “potentially”, because there was a whopping 22% who were unsure in the head to head matchup. That is quite a few to be persuaded.
And that is what the campaign is for.
Finally, we note the timing on this.
Back on January 23rd, we had a commenter who has seemed to have inside info, give “Daub” poll numbers as follows:
Then the Vokal camp came out with a “flash poll”, taken using a robo-caller, that showed the following:
And again, Vokal’s poll today (from January 24-25) shows
Now all we can say is, all of these are waaaay different.
Hey, and guess what? These polls were taken right around the time that both Daub and Vokal had their first TV ads on the air.
And Suttle hasn’t even been up yet. And Pope Toboggans be damned, you gotta figure he’ll get closer.
So, like it or not, this race is still a free-for-all.
Can Daub hold the lead? Can Vokal pull close enough? Can Suttle pull within the other two?
And what of those undecided voters?
Stay tuned kids!
Vokal Poll 021009