Rothenberg: NE-2 “Safe Republican”

On Friday, the Rothenberg Political Report changed their assessment of the Nebraska 2nd District race between Lee Terry and Tom White from “Favored Republican” to “Safe Republican”.

(His charts go Toss Up – Lean – Favored – Safe.)

(If you followed our Twitter feeds, you would have known this three days ago…)

Is this definitive? Of course not. We are sure Stuart Rothenberg has been wrong before.

But note that it’s not “Favored”. And it’s not “Lean”.

And it sure as heck ain’t “Toss Up”.

Keep that in mind as you continue to hear MSM outlets talk about the heated race in the 2nd.

Strangely they’re not talking about the other “Safe Republican” races in the 1st and 3rd Districts…

***

As we also Tweeted the other day, KFAB cited WheatFields restaurant’s new receipt featuring the Omaha restaurant tax: Mayor’s Tax.

Ron Popp is making his point.

***

We aren’t sure what to make of this, but we’re just passing it along.

A reader pointed us to the WhoIs info on the site “JimSuttle.com”. That is where you find who registered the website, etc. Oftentimes, groups will use the anonymous registration feature for a site. Not with Suttle’s campaign site.

So here is the interesting note: The site registration was just updated in August of this year.

And the email contact is someone named, “OmahaMatt”.

Now that could be just about anyone named, “Matt”. Anyone right? Or maybe they just haven’t updated it from last time.

Maybe. Or maybe not.

51 comments

  1. Anonymous says:

    Goodness. Was Lee and that man comparing beer bellies or just doing a routine gut check?

    You need to go into the past NADC reports and see that Clear Communications Partners, Matt and Gary's firm was paid healthy in lump sum payments then retained. But? Alas! They disappear and a new retained entity comes on the radar screen called Prairie Strategies and has its office only one door down from where Clear Communications Partners was located.

    If I didn't know better I'd say that is truly a kohinky dinky.

  2. GeosUser says:

    Local Wendy's is doing about the same thing on their receipts. I did a little back of the envelope calculation, based upon the way the "Mayor's tax" is applied and what the Suttle administration says they expect to collect, and it looks to me like the effective combined state & city sales tax rate on restaurant sales has increased by 0.1750% over and above the 9.5% stated rate. No big deal? Using the Suttle administration's numbers, that's an additional $1+ million in state/city sales tax collections just by taxing the Mayor's tax.

  3. Macdaddy says:

    Good to see that Rothenberg is finally paying attention to what I've been saying for months now. Has anybody seen numbers on how much Biden raised for the Independent White? Does anybody have the guest list? A fool and his money are soon parted and I was hoping to get in on the foolishness before they run out of money.

    Not that I can afford to go out to dinner much but it looks like to me that the Mayor's tax taxes the tax. Think I'll grill tonight.

  4. Anonymous says:

    @GeosUser: That is indeed how it works. They announced that the "Mayor's Tax" would be calculated after sales tax, so it is 2.5% of 107% of the bill (100% for the bill plus 7% for state and local sales tax), or a total tax rate of 9.675%.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Looks like my comment disappeared. Interesting. I guess too close to the truth. Anyway, Biden raised 120 grand. Was just curious as to how much Boehner raised when he secretly came to town for Terry. Or was there some other purpose or intervention?

  6. Macdaddy says:

    So 120 large from 285 people works out to just over $400 per person. Such enthusiasm! I am sure that the Dems will spin this that their support is derived from the little people. I wonder what percentage spent more than the $250 fee to see if Biden would stick his foot in his mouth?

  7. Anonymous says:

    To 11:28: Love the namecalling. Happy Monday morning to you as well. You're right. It's just the usual middle age spread that comes from doing not much.

  8. Ricky says:

    The link provided to Don Walton's column was helpful. He surmises that the Terry – White race could turn on a clever advertisement.
    I don't know why we give credence to some national guy like Rothenberg when we can see for ourselves here on the ground what the state of the campaign is like.
    I don't run in those circles thankfully, but I don't see any evidence of enthusiasm for the Terry campaign, and why should there be? Talk about a tired message and candidate.
    So I keep hoping that the great ad that White can develop is the one with Rep Terry getting plastered with that comely lobbyist at the swanky Republican club in D C. All the while claiming to be a huge family man.
    If you were White, why not run such an advertisement? Nothing could be as disgusting as Terry's ad claiming the practicing Catholic White loves abortion on demand.
    And, buy the way, where is the Street Sweeper jpeg from that flyer?

    Ricky From Omaha

  9. Anonymous says:

    I thought I read in the owh that the event for Lee Terry with John Boehner raised just over $140,000.

    Now, the difference is, the Terry campaign didn't have to share anything with the NEGOP, Tom White may have had to share some of his.

    Any way you look at it, Joe Biden just helped Tom White pay himself back.

  10. Anonymous says:

    White won't run an ad like that because he knows that if the OWH reporter could come up with 2 unsavory incidents, that the Lee Terry campaign has probably uncovered another half dozen or so themselves.

    Like, for instance, why Tom White isn't allowed to attend cocktail parties for charity.

  11. Anonymous says:

    Just read the LJS editorial. Is that Walton guy an idiot, or does he just play one in the papers?

    At the very end, he gives us Douglas County voter registration numbers. While interesting, it really doesn't matter in the race for the 2nd because the Sarpy GOP numbers balance the scales.

    He, along with most other Democrats, seems to have forgotten that Sarpy County is in NE2. And, Independents are leaning much further right this year than 2 years ago.

  12. Anonymous says:

    WOW!! .64 cents, OMG!!! I doubt I will ever go out to eat again. Looks like I need to dig into that bomb shelter and break out the canned corn and dried meat. Give it a rest people…it is a tax. It is how govt works. He is our mayor, don't like it, vote him out next election cycle.

  13. Anonymous says:

    Whatever the national pundits say, its what the voters in the 2nd CD have to say about it. There seems to be some new media popping up out in Youtube land. Kind of unique and almost funny short videos.

    Links aren't allowed here, so instead just look up the author Dickehund on Youtube if you want to watch them.

    Great news though to hear about the Rothenberg change.

  14. Nothing Suttle here says:

    Nope gonna vote him out a bit sooner! Then buh bye to the Bike Path guy, and lots more!

    Nothing Suttle about it!

  15. GeosUser says:

    Anonymous @ 10:17
    Yeah, $0.64 isn't much one time expense but bleeding another $1 million out of the private economy in an unauthorized increase in sales tax is. Well, that is unless you are a democrat Suttle voter who believes we should leave a democrat "tax and spend" moron in charge of Omaha's public finances for another two years. As petition signatures and an upcoming recall vote will show, you are definitely in the minority in Omaha.

  16. Anonymous says:

    Democrat tax and spend Moron. Oh right. The republican are the borrow and spend Morons. You republicans just don't get it. WE have to pay for the items that are needed. We can't keep borrowing so that the FUTURE will pay for it. Lazy republicans that is what we have now.

  17. GeosUser says:

    Anonymous @ 7:50,
    "WE have to pay for the items that are needed." Right there is a clear statement of the problem. We are paying for things/activities/programs/people in Omaha that are not needed unless you are a moron "tax and spend" democrat Suttle supporter. That includes a high priced lease vehicle for the Mayor's use, mayor's office staff salary hikes, over-paid under-qualified department directors, lobbyists/lawyers on weekly basis to avoid city charter approval requirements, badly negotiated city union employee contracts, taxpayer dollars for North O charity programs, city taxpayer dollars for OPS truancy problems, and so on…

  18. Anonymous says:

    Geouser. Keep it up. Keep borrowing. Keep it up. Some day you and others with your short sighted beliefs will die. And leave the mess to another generation. You republicans think this way on a national, state and now a local level. Just keep borrowing. Don't pay any taxes. Or at least keep them real low. You have no shame.

  19. Macdaddy says:

    The problem is not so much borrowing as it is spending. Quit spending so much and you won't have to borrow. Even frickin' Fidel Castro has figured that out. I'd like to think Republicans have gotten that message. I know for a fact that Democrats have not.

  20. Anonymous says:

    Good job GeosUser . Call people morons who don't agree with you. Your just another one of those borrow and spend the next generations money type republican. Maybe you can get your witch in Delaware to wave her magic wand and make it all go away.

  21. NE Voter says:

    Ron Popp is a tool.

    Ordinary Omahans are sick of Popp/Simmonds restaurant millionaires and their slumlord pals complaining about Suttle cleaning house at OHA (which did their bidding) and tacking a tiny fee on certain goods.

    The recall effort is bogus, plain and simple.

    Wake up, people!

  22. Kenny Powers #55 says:

    As much as I HATE (ok, I will use the word dislike) Lee Terry and his sports goggles, I would never sign a recall petition (easy folks, I know we cannot have one). Recalls should be used only if the public official has done something highly immoral, unethical, or illegal. It is a huge waste of taxpayer dollars. And um, Pubs, isn't that one of your stances? Not to waste tax payer dollars?? That is why I will be voting for Tom White. Because I do not want Lee Terry back in D.C. I would not take the female dog way out and force a recall.

  23. GeosUser says:

    Anonymoron 09:48,
    People who disagree with me aren't necessarily morons, just liberal/progressive/socialist/communist democrat morons who support tax and spend Suttle. To clear up any other of your moronic assertions…I don't borrow money, I don't spend more than I make, I invest heavily in businesses that produce profits and I pay plenty of unnecessary inflated taxes.

  24. LOL says:

    Gov. Dave Heineman enjoys more than a 100-to-1 advantage in campaign funds over his Democratic rival, Mike Meister, with less than a month to go before the general election.

    Heineman, a Republican, had $1.77 million in campaign funds on hand compared with $16,277 for Meister, a Scottsbluff attorney

  25. Arrr, Dubya, pee! says:

    Mike Meister said this morning he's going to be running TV commercials. Good luck doing that with 16K…unless you plan to film it on a webcam, edit it with iMovie, and broadcast it at 3 a.m. in Gordon.

    The donors, too, are interesting. $20 K from Dick Holland, $10 K from Nelson, $2 K from Suttle, $1K from Mike Boyle, $10 K from the trial attorneys, $2,750 from the AFL-CIO…the usual suspects, and not much else.

  26. Anonymous says:

    NE Voter:
    Why is Ron Popp a tool? Or Mike Simmonds? They own businesses that provide jobs.

    And why shouldn't Popp be upset. That itty bitty fee you refer to will actually really impact Popp's catering business, which he does a lot of through Wheatfields. The Mayor's Tax is not much on a nightly dinner tab, but when you are catering a business event, brodal shower etc, that amount could cost the business a customer.

  27. Anonymous says:

    Is a "Brodal" Shower something for the groom? Hey I picked up some Man Cave items for my buddies Brodal Shower. I can't believe he is getting hitched.

  28. Anonymous says:

    GeoUser. When are you going back to your KKK cave? Why don't you tell us some more fairy tales? Does your money say in Glenn Beck we trust? Live by the lie, die by the lie. The super right wing motto.

  29. Gina says:

    Well, at least you can say this about Meister: he has raised more in two months than Rebekah "elect me because I went to Yale" Davis has raised in almost two years.

  30. Anonymous says:

    I just saw the post and thought, wow, Popp is letting his rear end do the thinking for him instead of sound business judgment. When his restaurants go up on a boycott list, all you hatriots supporting the recall better make sure to dine at his place. He's going to need you all.

  31. Macdaddy says:

    You're going to boycott Wheatfield's? Have any of you Leftists out there eaten at Wheatfield's? Ever? Have you seen the regulars?

    Boycott Wheatfield's. That's funny. I almost spit my beer all over the computer screen.

  32. Anonymous says:

    I heard that The Mayor's Tax is going to cost the equivalent of a Scholarship at the Aksarben Ball this year.

    Yes, caterers in Omaha are screwed. I would use an out of the City caterer and avoid the tax by having a private venue.

    And, #55, I can't even understand what the point of your post is. Get off the merry-go-round before you type next time.

  33. Anonymous says:

    OWH story today on the 2 candidates running to end the Tom White reign of terror in the Legislature, really gives us no choice.

    Either elect a professional LOBBYIST to office, or elect someone that posts rhetoric on his website that some would argue just incites anger.

    Hasn't Tom White given the folks of that Legislative District enough "Anger Boy" for a lifetime?

  34. Anonymous says:

    The shown receipt is not calculating the tax correctly. The sales tax is 7% of the $24.97 subtotal, so that should be $1.75, not $1.79 as shown. The Mayors tax is also not correct. It should be 2.5% of the subtotal + tax, which would be 67 cents, not 64 cents. Even if the subtotal of $24.97 was taken at the 9.675 cumulative tax, the total on the receipt is still higher by 1.5 cents. The total should have been $27.39. What is WheatFields doing with the extra pennies that it gathers over time?

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