So here is the (incomplete) poll just posted on the OWH’s site for the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District race
Lee Terry (R): 44%
Tom White (D): 39%
Won’t Vote: 5%
But…those are “Registered Voters”, and not “Likely Voters”.
(Which is sort of skewed, considering they included the “Won’t Vote” part.)
But then when they just poll “Likely Voters” — and if they have this data then why even bother with this “Registered Voter” part in the first place? — then say:
“Terry’s lead grew to 8 percentage points among more committed voters — those who said they had already voted or definitely planned to vote.”
Wait, his “lead grew”? Where did that lead grow from? Undecideds? White’s voters? So is that Terry 47% and White still at 39% and UD’s up to 17% with the Won’t Votes subtracted? (Or whatever scenario you want to skew?)
And who the hell cares about those who “Won’t Vote”?????
Last time we checked, “Won’t Vote” doesn’t end up in the final tallies.
Anyway, know this: This race ain’t 44-39, and there is no reason to even publish that.
But it may motivate some voters to get their butts to the polls (you know, other than those “Won’t Vote ones), so there you have it.
(And just as an aside: At this time of year, lots and lots of interneters will be searching to see what the polling is in this race. And they will come upon this poll. And then they will say, “What the hell is this piece of crap?” Publish a real poll next time.)
(And a note regarding the other OWH story on this race: That poll does not indicate 12% “of voters” are undecided. A voter is someone who votes, not who registers to vote.)
So kids, if you would like a little better indication of turnout, look at the best recent comparable midterm election — 2006.
In that NE-2 race, turnout looked like this:
That year had 20,000 more Republicans than Democrats turning out.
And in 2010, you can bet that 25K I’s aren’t going to go D.
Just to give you a little better idea.
And the new Lee Terry spot:
And woe is Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle.
Did the OWH catch him after a few Dr. Peppers the other day?
In case you didn’t read to the end of their article on the poor, poor Mayor, catch this quote:
“I’m running through the gantlet and can’t see the end,” he said.
“We’re in a period of bitch, moan and complain. We need ideas, answers and solutions.”
You got that, every Omahan who is upset with the Mayor’s actions and may sign the recall petition?
All you are doing is bitching, moaning and complaining. And the poor, poor Mayor just can’t see the end to his woes.
Now you can feel free to argue the merits of what Hizzhonor is…well…bitching about. And you should.
But politically, really? Those are the words he is using while sitting down with a reporter? Bitching?
Savvy, Mr. Mayor. Savvy.
And, while we are at it, “running the gantlet”?
(Wait, isn’t it “gauntlet”? Like the Clint Eastwood movie, “The Gauntlet”? You know, where Clint decks out the buss with steel plates, then has to drive it down the city street with about a hundred cops firing at him, until he reaches City Hall and punches the Mayor? Or something like that. It’s been a while. But great movie. And whatever happened to Sandra Locke? She was in, like, all of his movies. He couldn’t find a role for her in “Gran Torino”? Wait, what were we talking about? Oh yeah…)
So, again, what “gantlet” is the Mayor running through? A political one? Or is the City is running the financial gantlet (or gauntlet)? Or Clint Eastwood is coming after him, like in “The Gauntlet”?
Because as far as not being able to “see the end”, well the Mayor is taking care of that with the tax increases. As he has told us allllllll along, he is an engineer. Identify the problem, then find the solution. And the Mayor found the easiest solution — for him anyway — higher taxes.
Didn’t take much thinking. End found. Done and doner.
But if it is a political gantlet to which he refers. Well, then that’s a “can’t stand the heat…” situation.
Can’t handle the criticism? Don’t take the gig.
This isn’t the City Council. It’s the Third Floor.
And then, about that poll the OWH is running about Suttle.
It says 47% say keep him in office, versus 39% who say throw him out and 14% undecided.
Yet, as we saw in more detail on the Terry-White poll, this is a poll of Registered Voters — not Likely Voters.
And that is — or can be — a big fat difference.
Not to mention, what kind of a question is that right now anyway? The question should have been, “Are you going to sign the petition?” There is no vote right now, so until hurdle #1 is crossed, their question doesn’t matter.
[Correction: This question WAS asked — with 31% saying they would sign — statistically enough for a recall vote.]
And we will tell you this: Those that are involved in these matters say that if The Suttle Recall Committee gets the needed signatures, Suttle will be out on the vote. There is a LOT of confidence in that.
Oh, and that is where your Likely Voters versus Registered Voters really comes into play.