Hellllllllllllloooooooooooooo Leavenworth Street readers!
It is THURSDAY morning, and yet we are still just getting over the momentous Tuesday evening.
First, a quick apology for no post yesterday. Not only were we not able to post, but we weren’t even able to read emails. That is a first around here. Ah well. Let everyone collect their thoughts.
So, Lee Terry’s HUGE win.
Now Leavenworth Street noted, throughout the past approximately four months, that the DCCC was not helping Tom White at all. That after initially being put on the watch list for close races, NE-2 was almost never listed in the group of the top 50 or so competitive races in the country.
And of course there is ALWAYS internal polling in the campaigns that gets leaked as to the realities of the race.
So Leavenworth Street predicted a 56% margin for Terry. We figured that was reasonable — and really wouldn’t have gone as high as the final margin.of 61%.
But, we will argue that 56% is pretty much a blow-out.
Sooooo, let us get back to that Omaha World Herald poll a week ago.
You will remember that they said their poll showed Terry with 44% — FORTY-FOUR percent! Oh, but parenthetically that was among “Registered Voters”, and not “Likely Voters”. They then went on to say that, well, among Likely Voters, Terry had an 8 point lead. And all that without giving any final numbers.
So, frankly, What the hell?
Readers, your local newspaper has just proved why newspapers are declining and people are going to blogs to find out what is really going on.
If the OWH doesn’t want to lower turn-out, or whatever, by showing the actual poll results, then fine. Don’t publish the poll.
But what they did instead was lie to the public about what was going on in this race, and cast their own view about what “should” be done. You know, instead of reporting the news.
And the OWH’s Paul Goodsell wrote today:
In addition, White never received any financial help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a clear sign his race was not viewed as likely to succeed.
Realllllly? A “clear sign” was it?
Funny then that we never saw that mentioned anywhere in any OWH stories or analysis of this race.
Good thing we did.
As far as the actual race in NE-2 went, this race was lost by Tom White as soon as ObamaCare passed, and he supported it. Add in the ObamaStimulus that White also supported, and there’s your rout.
For all the times that it was mentioned that President Obama won the 2nd District in 2008, no one went on to mention that, oh yeah, he isn’t on the ballot this year. And all of those supporters who voted for HIM weren’t going to show for Tom White.
Oh, and also the millions of DCCC dollars wouldn’t show either.
So the Terry strategy was basic: hammer Tom White on those points and focus on the Independents once again who would turn the tide in this race. Done and done.
And Tom White’s strategy?
“Lee Terry is nailing a lobbyist.”
That was it.
And enough about the claims by White that all he was trying to show is how close Terry is to lobbyists.
Their whole strategy was to claim, via a gossip column, that Terry had slept with a chick that wasn’t his wife.
And guess what strategists? That is called “gutter politics” and it doesn’t get you anywhere. At least not in Nebraska. And the Mike Johanns spot slapped that down so quickly White didn’t know what hit him. There is probably an argument to be made that Terry’s numbers would have been lower without it.
And enough from you commenters that this wasn’t “followed up” by the press. There was nothing to follow-up on. Let’s be realists here kids. You expect the OWH to investigate if a candidate is sleeping with someone? Really? That’s what you want them to do? If that’s the case, then you have a developed a skewed view of reality and what you think you deserve.
We hate to even delve into this, but let’s face it, this was the overriding “issue” of the campaign. Because it was never about “lobbyists”. If it was, a bigger deal would have been made about Tom White flying lobbyists all over the state. Of course no one cared unless White was in the mile-high club with said lobbyists as well.
Guess what politicians and strategist? “Congressmen talk to lobbyists!” isn’t going to get your candidate elected. “Politicians take money from PACs and unions!” isn’t going to get your guy elected. People assume all that. Unless the guy is found with hundreds of thousands of dollars in his freezer, it ain’t gonna fly. And even then, it’s close.
So what about 2012 for Terry?
First, how about having a ringing victory, and people immediately start talking about two years from now? Wow.
We will just say that this solid victory helps a lot. And 2012 won’t be 2008 for Obama in NE-2. We will predict right now that he doesn’t win it. Feel free to check back.
And how about Governor Dave!
74%! (My that was very close to Leavenworth Street’s prediction of 75%!)
If Dave Heineman is inclined to run for Senate — and we still think it looks like he is — then this victory, even against a non-opponent (sorry Mike), will make Ben Nelson think twice about running.
The Washington Post even noted that Nelson wasn’t fund raising like a real candidate.
On the one hand, don’t put it past Nelson to run just to spite an opponent with a victory.
On the other, Nelson knows what it is like to lose in a major race (to Hagel).
If he thinks he is going down, there is a good chance he won’t bother.
(Oh, and interesting, as a reader pointed out, that the LJS’s Don Walton chose to feature a story about Ben Nelson’s guy, Tony Raimondo, on Election Day…)
A quick shout-out for Adrian Smith’s dominating win over two opponents (70%! — we alternated between 75% and 65%, so we’ll take credit).
And also to Jeff Fortenberry! But geez Fort, only 71% over Ivy Harper? Next time we are expecting 85% or higher. (Tough love.)
And how about the Recallers?
They may still get to the 27,000 sigs, but come on. Observers will look back on it as a potentially fatal mistake that they didn’t use paid circulators on Election Day.
They only covered 60-70 polling places out of 215? Anecdotally there seemed to be quite a few in west O locations that weren’t covered. And who cares about the anti-people? Like a college kid was going to stop someone from signing a petition.
The Recallers are going to need to hone their message and organization if they hope to hit their numbers.
The Leg races? There were plenty. Feel free to crow about your winner.
Glad to be back!