Yes or No?

Round abouts when POTUS enters the House of Representatives tomorrow night, we will get the first numbers from the Election Commissioner on the Yes and No votes for Recall of Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle.

Keep an eye on the Nebraska delegation checking their smart phones.

You have seen all the pros and cons for why the Mayor should or shouldn’t be kicked out. Heck, we found it a little interesting that the OWH jumped the gun today and listed everyone who they think will run (Neary was a new name to us) if he gets a Timberland in the shorts.

But still a better question (at this point) is, Who will WIN?

And no one really knows, eh? We haven’t seen any polling of Likely Voters (homeless voters excepted, of course).

So we asked a bunch of our favorite local politicos, and here is what we got — absolutely weighted by Republicans, but more than just two Dems:

Winner %
Recall 60-40
Suttle 52-48
Recall 51-49
Recall 51-49
Recall 66-34
Recall 55-45
Recall 51-49
Suttle 55-45
Recall 58-42
Recall 57-43

So you can see from our sample that almost half thinks it will be VERY close.
But just over half put it at pretty much a blow-out — with one of those pro-Suttle.

So while many many think it will be close, we wonder if it will be more like the Terry-White Election Evening with a slam down.

Of those who are in-the-know, we have heard that each side is very confident in the ground-game they have run. It is all about GOTV, and both have said that they think they are getting their peeps to the polls.

But we will throw this out: there were quite a few fence sitters out there. And the fence sitters have been watching the politics of this recall election.

While Mayor Suttle came in with the positive numbers on the city finances, to many it was just another reminder of increased taxes — and possibly a certain display that they were increased too much. And will the Omaha Mayor find out in August that those numbers were bogus — much like Suttle says he did after the last election? We have heard from many skeptics.

But, like it or not, the whole pay-the-homeless-to-vote shenanigans have hurt Suttle. Much of this recall has been about what a political screw-up his administration has been from the start, and those political maneuvers only reinforced that.

It made people angry. And when the Mayor at first defended it, it made people even more pissed. It is an easy closing item for voters to recall.

And we think that is what they will end up doing.

Our prediction:
Recall, 56% – 44%.

(But then again, who knows?)

Your prediction?

49 comments

  1. Anonymous says:

    Unfortunately, this election will be another reminder to us GOPers that Democrats control Omaha. Prediction: 51-49 for Suttle with a higher restaurant tax coming in the near future as payback.

  2. Jim Esch says:

    Regardless, of where you stand, this election is arguably one of the most important in our recent history. So go vote and tell your friends to do the same.

    Jim Esch

  3. Kortezzi says:

    My prediction is: Recall 75% – Keep Suttle 25%. Seriously.

    It will be a wipeout. VERY FEW people will ACTUALLY go out to defend this guy (other than city employees, Dem party operatives & the World Herald editors). Especially after homelessvotegate.

  4. RWP says:

    55:45 Suttle.

    Special elections are low-turnout. In low turnout elections, city employee unions are crucial. The unions owe Suttle already, and will turn their members out to make him doubly beholden to them. Net result; if Omaha taxpayers thought they were screwed this year, they ain’t seen nothing yet…

  5. Anonymous says:

    Jim Esch, who doesn’t live in Omaha, wants to remind all registered Democrats to turnout to vote on Wednesday 01/26/11.

  6. Andy says:

    Recall….and my “street” sense says it won’t even be close. The patently self-serving Chicago-style “Homeless-Gate” BS he authorized and then refused to completely own up to, simply doesn’t fly in Omaha. He’s pissed off a lot of former fence sitters like me, who before were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but have now lost all trust in the man. He’s so outta there.

  7. Frankly says:

    Recall 56, Suttle 44. I have to think MANY who would typically stay home have since got out of their chairs or will get out – even enough to counteract the unions.

  8. Gina says:

    Since the new restaurant tax includes higher taxes on booze, I’m suprised Esch is not strongly in favor of the recall. But, when you are a trust-fund baby I suppose the cost of anything does not faze you. Must be nice.

  9. FarmerRick says:

    62 – 38 in favor of recall. To many of Shuttle’s initial supporters have seen through his “smoke and mirrors” style of politics.

  10. Target Dog says:

    True that, Rob. The “change your jacket, keep your sticker, vote again” guy spends at least five seconds to fill in half the oval on that commercial.

  11. curbfeeler says:

    Sweeper, I predict Suttle loses by 16 pts. And for the reason you gave. The viseral image of homeless men heading to the bus to vote, its recency and the perception of dissonnance in Suttle’s response messages, give this pay-for-vote incident the power of a dead skunk stuck in a wheelwell. It will still be there stinking tomorrow.

  12. Spike says:

    Nice weather predicted to get out & VOTE tomorrow but I don’t think it will matter much with the, generally, apathetic public. So what is it? the, city workers, cops & smoke eaters are rightfully running scared, so they’re pushing everyone they know. I think the average Joe Blow is going the ICCL route other than you all, arm chair, pol pundits who seem to be 2 – 1 on this RED blog for RC. Also even after the corruption in the 00 & 04 elections which created an “Election Reform Study” nothing intelligent ever came of it, ie like changing the voting day/s to a Saturday or Sunday so that the Blue Collar working stiffs might not have to make an EXTRA effort to vote while the Bosses & gentry vote at their leisure. So I predict a 50% – 50% vote with Recall by about 80 votes. Total votes about 22K or LESS. Polls aside, ie Bush 00 & 04, elections are like horse races, one never knows until it’s over! That’s all folks!!

  13. Anonymous says:

    One can almost see Hal Daub grinning form ear to ear from behind the curtain while the young pups sit the dance out again for the old dog who must try to win just one more before he croaks. I hope Dan Welch considers his polling results were flawed last time out. He’s in the hunt and doesn’t need the dog.

  14. Fourth Generation Democrat says:

    Suttle may be tone deaf as a politician (I just rolled my eyes at homelessgate), but all those pay it forward games previous mayors played hit the fan on Suttle’s watch. He has made a game effort at addressing these problems, or at least coming out and saying where we have gone wrong in the past. He does not deserve to be recalled. One term–maybe. I have thought from the beginning this is a Republican effort to invalidate the election, and that scares me a lot more than anything Suttle may do the rest of his term. If the local Republicans have any sense, they will muzzle Mike Simmonds–the World-Herald interview showed him to be a genuine deep pocketed nutbag. I will close with what I told Mayor Suttle when I met him on the campaign trail–if that snake (Hal Daub) slithers his way back into the Mayor’s office, we Omahans are in a world of trouble.

  15. Political Novice says:

    The two factors that made me decide to change from no to yes was the incident involving the homeless and the statement that it was the City Council refusing to pass the OFD contract and was responsible for the OFD going to the CIR.

    I have to believe the Mayor had to know and approve about using the homeless and if he didn’t then he should immediately dismiss whoever made that decision because that single act hurt him bad. As for Mayor’s office putting the blame on the City Council for not passing the contract, I understood Jean Stothert stated on radio that there was no contract put before the City Council to approve or disapprove regarding the firemen. Someone is not telling the truth and I believe Councilwoman Stothert.

    Recall 54-46 But what do I know?

  16. Ricky says:

    This will break along party lines. Democrats outnumber Republicans in Douglas County.
    Democrats see this as a partisan sour grapes thing, which it is.
    Independents see that recalls should be saved for malfeasance. Independents will vote 60 – 40 NO.
    Therefore, I predict that the recall FAILS; 48 to 52 percent.

    Ricky From Omaha

  17. Political Poet says:

    If turnout is high; Unions kiss your Sugar-Daddy goodbye.

    If turnout is down; Tax Payers won’t get rid of the Clown.

    If he goes or if he will stay; It won’t be by more than 1 percent either way.

  18. Dan Brown says:

    This is not a partisan election. I have spoken to many Dems that either will not vote at all or have already absentee voted against Suttle. 60-40 he will be recalled. First numbers out will tell the story.

  19. Anonymous says:

    Only a very small % of the population signed the recall petition. A very large percentage of the population believes “that’s what elections are for” when asked about recall efforts. Crime statistics in North O’ are waaayyy down and job creation is on the way up, and the local church leaders know it and preach it.

    For recall 43%
    supporters of Jim Suttle 38%
    Against the recall process and will vote that way %19

    You do the math

  20. Tax Man says:

    By the way watch for the interesting tax issues comming from the new line on tax forms dealing with reporting internet purchases! Seems there are some interesting records kept by UPS, FedEx, and USPS on home deliveries. Some local politicians are in for a rude awakening for dodging taxes.

  21. Dennis says:

    Recall 52% to 48%. Subsequent to that, a Republican will be elected Mayor. The new Mayor will then be under tremendous pressure to roll back the tax increases. The new Mayor will get that done but the budget cuts needed to balance the budget will come as a nasty surprise to the Omaha voters. As a consequence, the new mayor will become unpopular and will lose the next election. Winning the recall will be a booby prize for the recall people and the GOP. Be careful what you wish for…

  22. In The Know says:

    Well, Suttle is now paying John Lindsey $19,000 to lobby in Lincoln. By spending under $20,000 Suttle once again keeps this from a council vote, and keeps the public from debating the issue before their closest representitives.

    Just goes to show that it will be Suttle’s way or no way. Especially not the honest and open to the citizens of Omaha way.

    Tomorrow Suttle hits the highway.

  23. Dundee Resident says:

    @ Anon 8:00 pm:

    You forgot about my demographic – left leaning people that oppose the recall in principle, but do not appreciate the tax increases, the broken campaign pledges, and the stunt they pulled with the folks down at the Sienna House. We do not feel bad for Suttle, and we don’t feel like we owe him any favors. Result – we stay home.

    It was a poorly run defense since day one, and despite past voting habits, at the end of the day we are not compelled to take his side. If there was a “Don’t Give A Shit” box on the ballot, we’d check it. You can only burn so many bridges… Amateurs.

  24. Anti-Omaha says:

    I could care less what happens. While reports have come out putting Omaha as one of the best cities for housing costs, business, it earned back it’s AAA rating, and it’s sitting on a budget surplus, a total of 6 people – all Republicans – have paid for more than half the money raised to initiate this recall for their own personal agendas. Instead of saving taxpayers $1 Million and waiting until the next election to knock Suttle out, they’re using taxpayer money and their own to appease their own selfish interests. The rest of the city will suffer if the recall happens. Omaha is a joke at this point because the Washington Post was able to lay out very well just how stupid this whole thing is. You’re all being played. Tough decisions were made and they didn’t like it. They had no other answers themselves. It’s easy to stand back and bitch. It’s another to actually lead. And for the record, I could care less about Suttle. I just see how stupid this whole thing is. It’s a bunch of people having a temper tantrum because they didn’t get their way last year, so started heading down this road almost immediately. Hell, most of you were screaming “recall” within a couple days of Suttle taking office!! What a joke.

  25. Anonymous says:

    It’s fun to watch all of this recall action! For one thing you get to see where individual agenda’s and loyalty are. I’m sure the up coming elections will have a few interesting post cards to say the least. Of course it also provides yet another opportunity to showcase Progressive Liberal methods and tactics. When we eliminate a few more libs from holding office the State will be better off. Interesting how Nebraska is in such better shape than most states and coincidentally have a majority of republican elected officials. Just need to boot out some Libs in Omaha and Lincoln to get in the best shape. Hence there is a need to Give Suttel a shuttle ride out of town.

  26. Anonymous says:

    The way I understand it. There was a poll ran about the recall. It was anti recall 54% pro recall 40%. The poll was ran a day before the homeless vote. But will that event change a 14 point spread?

  27. Anonymous says:

    ANON 7:29 Nebraska has a GOP governor and a GOP State legislature. So your right about Democrats having no say so in the running of the state. I see those same Republican leaders put our state into a billion dollar hole. If you call that being in good shape. Well???

  28. Target Dog says:

    Dennis, you coming up from Lincoln to vote today? Or is Forward Omaha sending a shuttle down for you? (with a side stop at the Sienna/Francis House to get you registered, of course).

  29. GY says:

    I have heard very few that are actually voting for the recall.
    They don’t like Suttle, but dont think recall is warranted and will vote him out the next election.
    Prediction: Suttle 55 Recall 45

  30. Anonymous says:

    A billion dollar deficit is the product of union contracts and economic downturn. Try to bring your game up to speed when posting here. Otherwise kyle would like to see a bit more traffic.

    Thanks for playing.

    Buh Bye Suttle

  31. Ricky says:

    Have to point out to you that my prediction: Suttle hangs on 52 per cent to 48 per cent was quite accurate. Better than anybody else on this thread.
    Here is another prediction; David Sokol will NOT be re-appointed to the MECA board this spring when his term is finally up. ( I think he gave himself a fifth year) Buh Bye Mr Sokol and your 50K!

    Ricky From Omaha

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