We had a Twitter discussion — as much as one can have in 140 characters or less — with editorial cartoonist @NealObermeyer about the significance of the polling and what it shows for Senator Ben Nelson, etc.
Obermeyer’s point was that no matter what else the polls show, they show movement for Nelson. (You two in the back row stop your snickering!) As we see it, Neal wants to compare Nelson’s first week of November poll to his February poll — and show that things are better for him now.
Well, maybe. In theory. Nelson’s manager Paul Johnson is crowing that the November 5th-10th poll was done at the time of the DSCC funneling over a million dollars in advertising for Nelson into Nebraska — and that it was in response to Republican ads.
Well, last time we checked, the father of the Cornhusker Kickback started the ad wars right after his vote in favor of ObamaCare. And since then, both sides have had ads going. But Nelson’s carpetbombing of spots has really been in the past few months. So we are not that surprised that HIS OWN polling shows him going up.
Oh, and that’s polling where they don’t show the crosstabs.
Now, on polling where they DO show the crosstabs, and have similar methodologies…not so much change.
Look at the PPP poll back in September 30th – October 2nd:
Jon Bruning – 46%
Ben Nelson – 42%
Don Stenberg – 44%
Ben Nelson – 41%
Deb Fischer 39%
Ben Nelson – 41%
Compare that to last week’s poll by Magellan which went:
Jon Bruning – 45%
Ben Nelson – 39%
Don Stenberg – 41%
Ben Nelson – 40%
Deb Fischer – 35%
Ben Nelson – 41%
So where has the “movement” been for Nelson? Well, a point or two in the wrong direction, maybe — depending on how you want to read the margins of error.
But is that significant? As in, $1.2 million dollars worth of significant?
Hey, we are just glad that WE didn’t shell it out.
These are the things that Ben Nelson will be looking at as he makes his final decision on whether or not to retire. National Journal lists Nelson’s decision as the #1 biggest unanswered campaign question of the 2012 season.
And Nelson’s poll numbers are only one of many layers that will go into that decision. It will include whether he thinks he can beat Bruning, or Stenberg or Fischer. Or whether he can easily beat ANY GOP contender. Whether he wants to go out a winner, or a loser in his last campaign. Whether the GOP field is actually finalized yet. And all the other myriad personal reasons he may or may not have for running.
And of course the national Dems are willing to do whatever they can to keep Nelson’s seat in their column — especially since the money to spend in Nebraska is chump-change compared to what they have to spend somewhere like New Jersey or Pennsylvania. And if Nelson dropped out, even if they could get a Hail Mary out of a Bob Kerrey or a John Cavanaugh, they’d still have a tough race on their hands in the Presidential year.
So while some disregard the polls that fly around — and the over 50% numbers that the PPP and Magellan polls show for Nelson’s job disapproval and unfavorability — know that the Nelson peeps do NOT disregard them.
Just more info to sift through…like a craggy old bearded 49er…
Good to see that the President’s economic advisers can meld together a few easy ideas. Well, maybe it’s because this one is a former adviser…
Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers said of the Keystone XL Pipeline opponents:
“It’s a bit naïve to think the tar sands would not be developed if they don’t build that pipeline. Eventually, it’s going to be built. It may go to the Pacific, it may go through Nebraska, but it’s going to be built somewhere.”
Just an update folks: certain of those “pipeline opponents” have ALWAYS been about stopping the tar sands oil — and never really cared about the pipeline or the route or “Randy”.
But Goolsbee is probably wrong on one note: a “bit” naïve is taking it easy on them.
You know who else is naïve? Those poor suckers who thought that the deals ended on Black Friday or Cyber Monday! Oh no, dear friends, oh no! The deals keep coming!
That is, when you go to Amazon.com (via Leavenworth Street’s Amazon links) and get their Cyber WEEK deals all this week! Get that Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanza/Festivus shopping done NOW, while the deals are white hot!
And send a little L-U-V Leavenworth Street’s way — anonymously and at no extra cost to you! And thank you to those who have already done so.