Bruning and Stenberg beat Kerrey in poll

As we mentioned last week, pollster Magellan Strategies was out in the field polling. We even had a breakdown of their (very basic) questions.

Well, here are the results:

If the Election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Jon Bruning………………………………………………………………………51%
Bob Kerrey……………………………………………………………………….40%
Undecided…………………………………………………………………………..9%

Don Stenberg …………………………………………………………………..47%
Bob Kerrey……………………………………………………………………….39%
Undecided………………………………………………………………………..14%

Jon Bruning………………………………………………………………………52%
Steve Lathrop ………………………………………………………………….29%
Undecided………………………………………………………………………..19%

Don Stenberg …………………………………………………………………..52%
Steve Lathrop ………………………………………………………………….27%
Undecided………………………………………………………………………..21%

Jon Bruning………………………………………………………………………51%
Kim Robak………………………………………………………………………..34%
Undecided………………………………………………………………………..15%

Don Stenberg …………………………………………………………………..50%
Kim Robak………………………………………………………………………..32%
Undecided………………………………………………………………………..18%

The bright side for Bob Kerrey is that his Favorables were higher — in the 40’s —  than Bruning’s or Stenberg’s — in the 30’s. Which is nice. Except that it obviously doesn’t necessarily make people want to vote for you.

You can get the rest of the survey results (Generic Republican over Obama 59% – 33%) here, as well as the crosstabs here.
Their Survey Methodology:

“This survey was conducted using automated telephone touch tone technology. The survey used a stratified random sample from a Nebraska voter file. The survey response data was slightly weighted based upon demographics of past general elections. The 675 interviews were conducted on January 10th – 11th, 2012. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 3.77% at the 95 percent confidence interval.”

***

Kerrey has told everyone he will announce his decision this week.

Our thoughts?

To anyone who asks, we note that everything Kerrey was doing this past week would indicate he is going to run. He essentially did an announcement fly-around, talked to ALL of the media — heck sat-down with most of the media. Kept saying the same thing, over and over.

And then he shared his family plans — will keep his 10 year old son in school in his home in New York City, at least for the time being. That he has no plans to move his family to Nebraska — would instead move them to Washington, D.C, eventually. Basically, if elected he’d get free trips to Nebraska on weekends, here and there, to check on his business investments.

Our favorite line out of all that was that Kerrey said he and his wife had always been planning on getting a place back in Nebraska. (Oh brother.) Getting it in 2012? Pure coincidence!

In the mean time, Kerrey is clearly enjoying getting back into the political fray. Taking shots at Don Stenberg and Karl Rove. Gabbing with Joe Jordan. It’s like old times!

Of course, why he would want to do this is beyond us. He has no interest in actually “representing” Nebraska. He is simply looking at putting his views into the U.S. Senate votes. He’ll double down on ObamaCare and Cap and Trade and abortion and whatever else he is into at the time. Heck, maybe he actually just dislikes New York more than Washington. His faculty and students at the New School certainly didn’t show any love for him.

But the thing about Kerrey is you never really know what is going on in that giant melon of his. Ben Nelson acted like he was running too. But the polls showed that he would be in bad shape and and that everything in the election was going against him. Kerrey is likely to face the same reality. Is it worth it to him just for the crap shoot that he might win?

Maybe. Who knows?
This is Cosmic Bob we’re talking about.

48 comments

  1. bloody says:

    Kerrey’s legacy will be under siege by the ind. expend. groups. His final vote to give Clinton the largest tax hike in American history will get more play now than it did in ’93. His Viet Nam experience will be re-examined in a harsh, harsh way after the investigation and comments from his men.

    Go out on a high note, Bob.

  2. RWP says:

    Agree with bloody. This isn’t 1994, where he could rely on a sycophantic local press to filter out any negative criticism. His negatives are low right now because younger voters don’t know him and older voters have forgotten a lot. That will change. Meanwhile, he’s losing badly, even with relatively high personal approval. Not a good sign.

  3. But one thing you're forgetting... says:

    Bruning and Stenberg have been running ads already… ( or some super Pacs on their behalf ) if Kerry runs he’ll have at least 3 Mill to spend to reinforce his image.

  4. ricky says:

    Looks like it’s wide open if Mr Kerrey did decide to run. Stenberg and Bruning are exciting absolutely nobody.
    I thought the AG and the Treasurer are such GOP big shots. How come everybody keeps looking elsewhere?

    Ricky From Omaha

  5. Anonymous says:

    Lets see.Bruning has been running forever to be a Senator. He barely gets above 50% Kerrey has not spent a dime and is right with the GOP front runner. Kerrey will win in 2012 if he wants to run. It will be brutal, and the GOP will tell every tale and make up any lie to win the seat. Millions of out of state dollars will be spent by the GOP to buy an election.

  6. RWP says:

    Ricky:

    Most of us who vote, vote regardless of whether we find a candidate ‘exciting’. Heck, I find Ron Paul exciting, but he won’t be getting my vote.

    Conservatives make rational choices; leftists go with emotion. Mitt doesn’t give me a tingle in my leg, the way Obama affects Chris Matthews, but I’m supporting him for president.

  7. Anonymous says:

    Let’s hope Kerrey gets in. The $$$$$$$$$ the DNC would spend for him, and the $$$$$$$$$ the GOP would spend against him, would give our state’s economy a welcome shot in the arm. As for any of the above mentioned politicians actually “representing” any of us in Washington? Hah!
    We might as well enjoy the show and welcome the influx of their cash. We won’t be getting anything that benefits any of us, unless you’re a 1%-er, from any of them.

  8. @ anon 845 says:

    How can you say Kerrey right with the GOP front runner? The lead is 11 points!

    Bruning’s lead in this poll is wider than his lead against Ben Nelson, even when the Dems were running ad after ad after ad.

    11 points is a sizable lead, and would amount to a landslide for Bruning.

  9. Macdaddy says:

    I’m actually hoping Kerrey does get in. Ben Nelson will feel like he has to drop that 3 mill in Nebraska rather than buying good will in whatever state he wants to retire in and the DSCC will feel they need to drop more bucks into Nebraska rather than spending it in other states where they might have had a chance.

  10. Guess what says:

    every poll in this race has in common – Bruning’s ahead, and almost all by double digits. 20+ over Stenberg and 11 & 25 over the most likely Dems (Robak isn’t running).

  11. Anonymous says:

    If Cosmic Bob decides to run, don’t be surprised when Heineman announces shortly thereafter. Nebraska is a different state in many regards since Bob used to live here and he will be in for a rude awakening when he travels the state talking with voters who will see list name listed along with Obama. Nebraskan’s also remember the last carpet bagger they elected to the US Senate and are not likely to make the same mistake twice…

  12. anon says:

    I don’t think the “Carpetbagger” line will go far. It’s harder to use against a former governor/senator from the sate.

    As for the fact that people will link him with Clinton, that’s probably a plus in this economy.

    I think he could beat Bruning, if he has the drive to campaign, which he hasn’t really shown for the last decade and a half.

  13. New Yorker says:

    Let’s face it Bob Kerrey only cares about Nebraska to the extent it benefits him. He choose to move to New York and after he left that job he continued to stay in New York. His wife and 10 year old kid have never lived here and they have no plans to ever live here. His son will transfer to a DC school. Let’s face it Bob is a carpetbagger!

  14. Dennis says:

    The Magellan Poll over sampled Republicans and under sampled Independents. It’s a partisan poll designed to scare Kerrey from running. The race is closer than this poll indicates. If Kerrey runs, he will eventually catch up to and pass the GOP candidates. A TV blitz reacquainting Nebraskans with Kerrey and “defining” Bruning and Stenberg will substantially move the numbers. There is no doubt that the GOP Senate field is weak – that’s why national Republicans are so anxious to have Heineman throw his hat in the ring. In the final analysis, I can’t see the callow frat boy (Bruning) or yesterday’s man (Stenberg) beating a bona fide war hero who has an excellent public service record.

  15. Dennis (and other interested),

    I quizzed a Magellan rep about the differences b/t the Nebraska registered voter numbers, and their polling numbers in one of their previous polls.
    His response:

    “We weight our surveys of likely voters based upon past general election voter turnout by gender, age group, party and region.
    Surveys of likely voters should always reflect what turnout is likely to be, in this case November 2012. A survey of likely voters should not look like registration unless you are doing a survey of registered voters.

    Hope that helps, and thanks for reading.
    SS

  16. Kortezzi says:

    Perhaps you can infer that Bruning is still up on Stenberg since his margin over Kerrey is larger.

    But the details show Stenberg with a larger edge over Robak or Lathrop, if they are the Democrat candidates instead of Cosmic Bob. So maybe Don’s closed the gap with Jon, or opened a slim lead.

    I don’t understand why Magellan would conduct a statewide poll and fail to ask the Republican respondees which candidate they’d vote for in the GOP primary.

  17. War Hero? says:

    Dennis, I will thank Mr. Kerrey like any other service member that fought for this country. However I will not give my vote blindly to a person whether they served or not. I’m sure Dennis you voted for Obama despite John McCain being a war hero. The same was probably true when you voted against Bush Sr. in 1988 and 1992. Bob Kerrey is to the left of Ben Nelson and vast majority of Nebraskans. He can run if he wants but I think Jane Kleeb would have higher numbers than him.

  18. Anonymous says:

    Dennis: “a TV blitz reacquainting Nebraskans with Kerrey.” would be countered by TV blitzes telling Nebraskans of Kerrey’s liberal record in Congress. Bring it.

  19. Undertaxed says:

    The dems sure have not built much of a “bench” since Old Bob Kerrey left the state…..he’s it? That’s all they got when Nelson decides to not run?

  20. Whatever says:

    Only cowards attack Medal of Honor winners, using situations that occurred 40 years ago in conditions that the cowards have never been in, and situations that were long since settled. You’d get a MOH if you’re a war criminal. But then, these are the same people who supported Bush and his disappearing from his duties for a year, defending his behavior, while attacking someone that actually experienced war conditions. In the cowards realm, if you have a “D” by your name, wearing a uniform no longer matters.

    And the fact is that the firm over sampled Republicans. For Kerrey to be in this position, with the highest approval rating, when has done no campaigning, shows he’s in a good starting place. Stenberg will never be the nominee, it will be Bruning. And Bruning’s never had to answer questions about his unethical behaviors. Republicans are over confident in Nebraska, But then, what you expect from a party that thinks Nebraska should be a one-party state only. Sounds rather like communism, expecting a one-party state.

  21. RWP says:

    Ballocks. Medals during Vietnam were awarded for political reasons, to bolster popular support for an unpopular war. Kerrey’s Bronze Star was awarded for killing 21 women and children, not 21 Viet Cong, as the citation claimed. Nothing in the UCMJ, let alone the Geneva Coventions, justifies stabbing children to death simply because they made ‘contact’ with Kerrey’s squad. And note that Kerrey fully admits they did this.

    Kerrey and his men, and those who set the policy Kerrey claims he was following, If that was in fact the case, disgraced the uniform they wore. Putting children to the knife is a war crime, whether done by the SS or by Navy Seals.

    Ironic that the same people who support Kerrey are all over a few marines for pissing on some dead fanatics.

  22. Anonymous says:

    RWP if Senator Kerrey MOH winner in your eyes is a war criminal. Why has he not be arrested? Simple question. Even a simple man like you can answer it. You show great courage behind your key board insulting so many people. Lots of have felt the sting of your big mouth. But your the type of person who if was in any fire fight would be the first one to have to change his underwear if you lived through it. If you judged the soldiers of the Greatest Generation the same way that RWP judges Senator Kerrey many of them should have served time in prison .Especially pilots who dropped bombs on civilians including the ones who dropped atomic weapons on Japan. RWP Senator Kerrey an American hero is not like you terrorist friends and relatives of the IRA.

  23. Deb Fischer was in the poll says:

    When asked about Deb’s chances against any democratic opponent 97.2% responded “Who’s Deb Fischer”

  24. RWP says:

    RWP if Senator Kerrey MOH winner in your eyes is a war criminal. Why has he not be arrested?

    Who’s going to arrest him? Nobody wants to rehash what went on Vietnam, until people start to use it as a sort of “I’m a hero. if you criticize me, you hate the troops” card, as Kerry and Kerrey have. Here’s the deal: use the medal as credentials, and we get to examine the credentials.

    I am amused I am being called a coward by someone too chicken$417 to post under the name his momma gave him. FWIW, back in the time of the Troubles I was close enough to a car bomb to be knocked down by the blast. I picked myself up and took the train home, no change of underwear needed. It wasn’t that big a deal.

    I have no friends in the IRA, and no living relatives who were in it. When they were alive they knew what I thought of the campaign, and for that reason they told me almost nothing. What I know I know by accident.

  25. Anonymous says:

    I just googled “University of Nebraska Chemistry Department faculty” and sent an email to the heads of the department telling them what I thought about Gerard Harbison, blogging under his accreditation of the University of Nebraska, attacking the service of a Medal of Honor combat veteran/amputee.

    I would encourage you to do the same.

  26. Anonymous says:

    Typical liberal coward.
    Don’t like what someone is saying? Tell on him! Shut him down! Silence him!
    Why don’t you nut up and debate him, if you don’t like what he says?
    Oh, that’s because you are a liberal squish who is too much of a pussy to stand up for your own views
    Go back to your tent on the mall.

  27. Vietnam Vet says:

    I didn’t earn a Medal of Honor, not even a Silver or Bronze Star, only a MUC. I was fortunate enough to avoid earning a Purple Heart. But anyone that has received any of those awards has earned my utmost respect. I did kill people, yes – even women and children, but I am alive today, and my buddies are alive today because I did so. I’m not proud of what I had to do, but I did what I had to to stay alive, and to do what my country demanded of me. I would do it again.
    RWP, an Irish college professor, one that never faced combat, who feels that he has the right to judge those that have, is worthy of no consideration whatsoever. He is taking advantage of the freedoms that a lot of good men, and women, have paid for with their lives and their suffering, and he is effectively spitting on them, just as those f***ing hippies did to us when we returned from the theater.
    I’d use my real name here, but then I’d have to put up with the harassment from a bunch of louts, from both sides of the political aisle, that were too cowardly to serve their country, but in their own minds are brave “patriots.”

  28. Vietnam Vet says:

    Oh, and by the way, I have been a registered Republican all my life, but I have been having serious doubts about that recently. I think I’m going to go register as an Independent. I don’t like this Bruning guy at all. He seems as crooked as a dog’s back leg, Stenberg and Fischer? Meh!
    I’m not crazy about Kerrey, but it pisses me off to see him attacked by a bunch of vermin that aren’t worthy of licking his boots.

  29. Whatever says:

    RWP isn’t even a registered voter. He claims he is, and yet when one takes the time to search ever county using the name he says is his, you can’t find him.

  30. RobO says:

    Honestly, I would take Bob Kerry over Don Stenberg any day. If Bruning wins the primary, he’ll have my vote, because he will go to bat for Nebraska. Stenberg will just be a tea party loyalist and do what South Carolina’s own Jim DeMint tells him to do. Not good.

  31. RWP says:

    RWP, an Irish college professor, one that never faced combat, who feels that he has the right to judge those that have, is worthy of no consideration whatsoever.

    American, first of all. I have the papers to prove it.

    Second, you’re wrong. The military are subject to civilian control. That’s what makes this the US and not Pakistan. Wearing the uniform does not give you liberty to execute non combatants. And if you do, I get to judge you. Deal with it.

    And third, Kerrey’s team had never faced combat either, at the time of Tranh Phong.

    As for courage, which of us is willing to post under his own name?

  32. RWP says:

    I’m not going to pollute Sweeper’s blog by continuing this argument. Kerrey’s actions in Vietnam, good and bad, have little bearing on his past or future performance as Senator, and there is no hope for any rational discussion of them here. I’ve said what I have to say on my own blog.

    You can show your continued commitment to freedom by trying to get me fired for stating unpleasant facts, but it won’t work. UNL does not punish people for what they say on their own behalf, on their own time, using their own computer. It will simply waste the time of some overworked administrators, and I’d prefer you didn’t do that.

  33. Harvey in Lincoln says:

    I push a liberal agenda every day I go to work on the tax payers dime. Isn’t that what a university president is supposed to do?

  34. vet says:

    Hey bigmouth at 5:49. Be careful using the word “coward”. I am a disabled war veteran. I admit to having voted for Kerrey and his MOH the first time he ran, but then I discovered that his policies were dramatically against the things I was fighting for while in uniform. And it is Kerrey himself who tells the press he regrets the pile of dead babies shot full of holes in an attack on his orders. It is Kerrey himself who said he’s uncomfortable with his MOH. Crap happens in combat, it is messy, ugly stuff. I know that. Kerrey knows that. But I rather doubt you know that. So, unless you have more than my 16 ribbons, stick your “coward” terminology up your butt. Your head needs company in there.

  35. Kerrey: So Liberal He's Scary says:

    If Kerrey runs on his policy record, you roast him with his own words about moving so far to the left on healthcare since he’s lived in Grenitch Village or Greenwich Village or however you spell that liberal enclave in New York City! (imagine the Pace picante sauce ad now.)

    On the other hand, if Kerrey runs as a War Hero, he makes his record fair game, just as John Effing Kerry did. Swift Boat Vets, anyone?

  36. Hey, Julie Schmidt-Albin says:

    Any chance we can claim some real-estate in Centennial Mall for the Walk for Life to erect some tents and signs or maybe some crosses representing aborted babies? Have you checked into how the Occupiers obtained whatever permit was required for their extended stay? Now that the City of Lincoln has allowed this to become a public forum, I’m not sure what possible time, place or manner restrictions they could now assert would EVER been necessary to achieve a compelling government interest. Maybe just noise-wise, but even then …

    I think we should be entitled to some share of that public forum for our expressive conduct, right?

  37. Heineman for Senate says:

    Looks like a cooked poll. Magellan’s sample consisted of 55% Republicans, 34% Democrats and 11% independents. Nebraska has more registered Democrats and independents combined than registered Republicans. Oversampled Republicans and undersampled Independents.

  38. Julie Schmit-Albin says:

    Hey 1:35 p.m. You would be correct in asserting that the City of Lincoln’s bluff should be called. OL needed no permit because suddenly out of thin air, Centennial Mall was no longer a “park” but a “public space.” However that may all change as OL is now wringing its hands over possible eviction on March 1st as the City has played nice long enough and needs to get moving on the Mall re-hab project. Or, 3,000 pro-lifers can tramp through there on January 28th and take care of the eviction problem.

  39. steve lustgarten says:

    While my link to my Facebook page is awaiting moderation just like to point out that although a dark horse in this race, unlike Steve Lathrop, Bob Kerrey and Kim Robak, I’m an actual real life candidate for the democratic nomination on the Senate seat. Just sayin.

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