Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes…it rains

Americans for Prosperity is putting up radio and TV ads hitting Bob Kerrey and his nascent potential Senate run. See it here:

Kerrey and his Dem buddies can reject the “carpetbagger” idea, or debate the definition, all they want. Fact is when Nebraskans get refamiliarized with his positions on the major issues of the day, they will see where the New York influence has obviously seeped into his fertile liberal melon.

And we have no idea what Kerrey will ultimately decide on (this week?), but one Leavenworth Street observer noted that (plaintiff’s) Attorney Steve Lathrop has started running ads for his law firm featuring…him. In the past, our reader noted, Lathrop’s firm simply used a spokesdude of sorts. Does that mean much? Could still be him planning for the Governor’s race in 2014. Could also be a clue…

***

When the Magellan poll came out the other day we heard the same complaints from the Democrats which we always hear when they see poll numbers they don’t like: “This is a GOP pollster! They oversampled Republicans!”

Well, lets hit those two issues. First, does Magellan have mostly GOP clients? Yup, we think so. And….? Whether you are a GOP or Dem pollster can come up when you are asking leading questions in your poll.

If you are testing, “What if I told you candidate A kicks his pet hamster on a daily basis?” and that changes the “Who would you vote for today?” results, that’s one thing. But if you simply ask a voter, “Candidate A or Candidate B”, then no one should care what party you are affiliated — particularly when you publish your results (like Magellan did)!

So the other item that the Twittering Dems keep yelping is, “They oversampled Republicans! There are only 48% Republicans registered in Nebraska, but Magellan sampled 56%!!! Nyaaaah! Nyahhhhhhhhhhhh!” (You can infer that last part in their Tweets.)

And we asked the CEO of Magellan about that exact point after their last poll. And his response, which we added in the last comments, was:

We weight our surveys of likely voters based upon past general election voter turnout by gender, age group, party and region.

Surveys of likely voters should always reflect what turnout is likely to be, in this case November 2012. A survey of likely voters should not look like registration unless you are doing a survey of registered voters.

So note that GOP turnout in 2008 was 51%, 2010 was 59% and they are constantly polling in the mean time. Their analysis leads them to believe that GOP turnout in Nebraska in 2012 will be 56%. Think it’s too high? Too low? Get back to them when you have a better model.

***

The Governors Journal notes that Governor Dave Heineman has come up with a compromise plan for President Obama to say “Yes” to the Keystone XL Pipeline, within the deadline set by Congress:

“At a minimum, the president of the United States could do a conditional yes,” and TransCanada could begin building the pipeline from either end and finish, in Nebraska. This is a credible solution, because nearly all other approvals are in place and no one thinks the pipeline won’t win final approval from Nebraska where the golden ring would be put in place.

Heineman says he expects TransCanada to provide Nebraska with at least one new route for the pipeline in the next week to ten days. After that, it will take six to nine months(possibly less) for Nebraska to grant its final environmental approvals. With a conditional approval from the president and the U.S. State Department, construction could be well underway by then.

“Since the Department of State basically approved the old route, we don’t really think at the end of the day there is going to be a challenge there,” Heineman says. The governor says he thinks the issue boils down to this for the president: “Do you think it (Keystone XL) is in the national interest of the United States of America? When you have an 8.5% unemployment rate in America – this is a no brainer.”

***

In addtion, the Governor told The Governors Journal, and a few other outlets, that he still doesn’t plan to run for Senate — but that he hasn’t necessarily shut the door either.

Both Kerrey and Heineman also say that the other’s decision will not affect their own.

And you will also hear the QBs on Sunday tell you the conference championships are just another game. Same with the Super Bowl. Just like Crash Davis told Nuke LaLoosh to tell the press:

  • We gotta play ’em one day at a time.
  • I’m just happy to be here and hope I can help the ballclub.
  • I just wanna give it my best shot and, Good Lord willing, things’ll work out.

What he said.

**UPDATE**

And Hey, we almost forgot to mention…
Leavenworth Street is SIX years old today!

Brutha. We’ve enjoyed it. We hope you’ve enjoyed it. Six years. Geez.

OK, so in lieu of gifts, just buy something for yourself via the Amazon links up above — or buy yourself an L.St. mug or shirt — and everyone is happy. You get a box on your doorstep, our beak is wetted, and you’ve supported the talk of Nebraska politics.

It is much appreciated. And even if you don’t buy something, thanks for reading. Tell a friend or an enemy.

15 comments

  1. Heineman for Senate says:

    Magellan’s sample consisted of 55% Republicans, 34% Democrats and 11% independents. Nebraska has more registered Democrats and independents combined than registered Republicans. Oversampled Republicans and undersampled Independents. I guess that’s the only way to get a poll that says frat boy can win.

  2. Duh says:

    Holy cow, folks. I guess one could grab a Crayola and draw a picture if it would aid your understanding.

    WHO CARES ABOUT VOTER REGISTRATION NUMBERS???

    The only way to get an accurate snapshot of the electorate is to survey LIKELY voters. Republicans are LIKELY to make up 56% of those ACTUALLY VOTING – not registered – VOTING on Election Day. It is LIKELY VOTERS opinions that we care about since, you know, they are actually going to vote.

    The Magellan poll sample is on the money.

  3. Macdaddy says:

    I think that pounding Kerrey on his status-quo-preserving, obtuse liberal views is the right strategy.

    And a Happy Birthday to LS, despite the fact that Sweeper puts an addictive code in this blog that makes me crave it fortnightly.

  4. Lil Mac says:

    Congratulations Sweeper. In the face of Buffett owning free speech around here, your role in preserving freedom is not minor.

    As for polls, Democrat pollsters like to poll registered voters because Likely Voters (those fewer voters who actually vote) tend to be slightly more weighted toward Republicans. That should be no surprise because all those money grubbing Republicans with the energy to grub money have the energy to vote. Voters who want government to solve their problems are more inclined to stay in bed on Election Day. It is is a matter of human inertia. People encouraged to be inert tend to stay at rest.

    Ah sweet irony. Social Liberals think they win by addicting people to government crutches and then wonder why those same people don’t limp to the polls.

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