Don Stenberg published results from a poll done last week that shows Jon Bruning solidly ahead in the Nebraska GOP Senate race.
Unfortnuately, Stenberg did NOT publish the questions, crosstabs or any topline results from the poll, as other pollsters on this race have done recently. Stenberg’s poll shows Bruning with a 5 to 6 point lead on Stenberg, with the following numbers:
As we have heard from numerous poll respondees, the Stenberg poll gave a number of unevenly weighted “facts” — “If you knew that Jon Bruning is a resident of North Korea and regularly eats Sandhills cranes as a snack…” — before finally asking the “Who would you vote for” question.
Now this type of polling can be different from traditional “push polls”. True Push Polls are designed to not really poll at all, but instead are used to sell a set of facts to the voter — true or not — to actually influence their vote.
Then there is the “weighted facts” type of polling that is generally used for internal campaign purposes, to see what messages resonate with voters in order to use them in their media campaign. In other words they might ask, “If you knew that Jon Bruning once opened his shirt down to the third button in a high school photo, would that make you more or less likely to vote for a fully buttoned — to the top — Don Stenberg?” If the polling were high, you would see that photo of Bruning in a Stenberg mailer on your doorstep in the near future.
Then, of course, you have your regular, “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?” The problem with the Stenberg poll that was “released” is that it is a variation of the push/question poll, in that it is not a straight up or down poll, yet sells itself as that. The election will not be held in a vacuum where Bruning could not respond to attacks on him from other groups or candidates. So while Stenberg’s poll says that he is only down to Bruning by five points, of course that is not a realistic number.
For what it is worth, we have heard of polling that shows Bruning up by a much different number. We hope to be able to publish more info on that, but suffice it to say, it is not 6 points.
In any case, no one doubts that Bruning has the lead in the primary — a primary that has not officially closed its doors on all candidates, mind you — and that Stenberg has likely made some gains. To ignore increases Stenberg has made because of all of the advertising he has done would not make sense.
But by virtue of the “Pushy” poll put out by Stenberg, it aint’ as close as 5 points. Otherwise Don would have done a regular poll and published the results.
Here is one number from that poll that we DO find interesting:
Figure that with all of the candidates and “information” provided by the Stenberg camp, still GOP voters come out that heavy with minds unmade. Not to mention, it is higher than Stenberg’s numbers.
Common sense would say those undecideds will eventually spread themselves out among the three or four candidates.
It also probably says they may be waiting for someone else to jump in.
Politico reports that Bruning was endorsed by the conservative political action group Citizens United, today. They gave him $10K, and we will apparently see if they can raise more for him in the primary.
And yes this is THAT Citizens United, plaintiff in the USSC case.
Watchdog says Brad Ashford wants to be Mayor of Omaha in 2013.
And they also speculate on Dave Nabity.
Jean Stothert’s name is always in the mix.
We have heard that Rex Fisher may have an interest.
And we have also heard a few other names as well.
It is never too early, right? Right??
Twittererer @DanMoser tweets today:
Bob Kerrey emerged from his NYC apartment this morning saw Karl Rove’s shadow, 6 more weeks of deciding.
Moser has some pretty funny stuff. Worth following.
Another chuckle from a fake Jon Bruning:
@RobynnTyser: Is Stenbreg closing the gap?
@JonFinBruning: Who cares? I shop at The Buckle!