BREAKING: Poll cats

It drives us crazy to do another post after we JUST put one up, but sometimes the events drive you…

So, first…

Jon Bruning’s camp released a poll done by the Tarrance Group of 500 likely GOP voters in Nebraska. Results as follows:

Jon Bruning…………….52%
Don Stenberg……………19%
Deb Fischer……………..11%
Pat Flynn…………………..1%
Spencer Zimmerman …1%
Undecided……………….16%

Wow, that’s some kind of spread. We would note that we do not have any indication that this was a push or message poll, though we do not have the full crosstabs either.

***

Then Rasmussen Reports released a Nebraska Poll as well.

They put each of the 3 main GOP candidates against former Senator/Governor Bob Kerrey, and got these results from 500 likely voters.

Jon Bruning……55%
Bob Kerrey…….33%

Don Stenberg….52%
Bob Kerrey…….34%

Deb Fischer……46%
Bob Kerrey…….34%

Say what you want about Kerrey having just shown up in Nebraska after an 11 year absence, and not having campaigned and GOP ads and yadda yadda. He has some serious ground to make up.

And note his numbers against Deb Fischer, who many Nebraskans probably could not pick out of a Dancing with the Stars lineup. (No offense to Deb, it is just that sometimes their “stars” are not necessarily that.) If Kerrey is back 10 points to an almost complete unknown, what does that say? People aren’t riding their bikes across the Deb Fischer bridge. Something is up. (And it ain’t Kerrey’s numbers.)

***

And we we will note again that today, the Club for Growth endorsed Don Stenberg. This could have some extreme significance. The Club for Growth will put its resources into the Stenberg campaign much in the way Senator Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund has, along with Americans for Prosperity FreedomWorks.

They have the ability to level the monetary playing field in the GOP primary so that Stenberg can go head-to-head with Stenberg on the air. This is no small matter.

With poll numbers like Rasmussen’s as well, Stenberg can make an argument that he can beat Bob Kerrey much like Bruning can. (Deb Fischer can try that as well, except that she will have a much more difficult time getting that message on the cablewaves.)

So while the money is there, we will wait to see if GOP voters actually come around to Stenberg over Bruning. So far we have not really seen any evidence that that is the case. But with a bombardment of (good) ads (hopefully with actors who don’t drop their R’s this time), Stenberg has the opportunity to make this a winnable race.

***

And on that note, we asked some local independent (from the campaigns) politicos their thoughts on the CFG’s endorsement. Some were shocked and see it as game changer. Others, not so much. A few takes:

  • “This evens the playing field for Stenberg. He should be doing cartwheels.”
  • “CFG’s determination to get into any race is based on the candidates philosophy and an assessment of resources that can enable them to win.”
  • “The best barometer of a candidate’s viability is a combination of his or her ability to raise money from within the state and convince those who can vote for you to publicly indicate their support. By that measuring stick, this race continue to leans prohibitively in Jon’s favor.”

(More hopefully to come.)

***

Oh and btw, Rasmussen gives Governor Dave Heineman a 72% job approval rating. Yowsa.

36 comments

  1. Anonymostly says:

    In the Rassmussen poll Kerrey ties Gene Ric Democrat for popularity in this state. Not bad for a guy who hasn’t lived here in more than a decade; not good for a guy who held the two highest elective offices for this state. Kerrey so far only gets support from the people who would vote for whoever the Democrat is.

  2. Jordan and Jamie says:

    Safe to say that this poll is by far the most accurate poll in the history of polling. If anything Bruning’s numbers might be a little low, its a well know fact that over 63.7% of Nebraskan’s rank the most trustworthy people as 1. Jesus 2. Jon Bruning 3. Ronald Reagan 4. Tom Osborne 5. Jordan McGrain 6. Rex Burkhead

  3. Joke says:

    Rasmussen? Really? What a right wing poll. I wonder if any independents or democrats were asked their opinions. Getting advise from Rasmussen on this is like asking Rush Limbaugh on how to talk to woman. No one takes it serious.

  4. Jordan & Jamie says:

    We love siting insight from ourselves and placing it on our blog like “according to Jordan & Jamie….who so eloquently stated on Facebook, Jon Bruning is……”

    Searching for support quotes? Just write them yourselves.

  5. BigStick says:

    Wonder if Bruning will still be putting out phantom polls after the first round of TV ads from Club for Growth educating voters on the real Jon Bruning?

  6. Anonymous says:

    Word is that Club for Growth has the same dirt on Jon Bruning that the Dems already had. CFG might be dropping their bomb on the primary while the Dems hoped to keep it under wraps until later.

  7. Anon says:

    ‘Jordan and Jamie’ are you some ticked off Stenberg supporter?

    If so, you must be having a difficult time reconciling the fact that in reality the Stenberg campaign is falling flat and can’t gain any traction. Feel for you, you just need someone to blame besides your own Stenberg campaign.

    And, no I’m not with the Bruning Camp. Just a regular person on the side that is baffled with how nasty I’ve seen you guys get lately. I will say, I’m impressed with the Deb Fischer camp, they’ve been professional and operated with class. Take a queue.

  8. Kortezzi says:

    The most important take-away from this poll is that EITHER Bruning, Stenberg, or Fischer matches up favorably against Bob Kerrey.

    Which is the lesser risk:
    1. Nominating a young AG like Bruning, whose ethical blind spots can and will be put under the Kerrey campaign’s microscope?
    2. Nominating an old uncharismatic Don Stenberg, who has lost enough races to give anyone pause (even after seeing good polls vs. Kerrey)?
    3. Nominating an unknown like Deb Fischer, who has puny campaign dollars to boot?

    Club for Growth, the DeMint PAC, Mark Levin, any many others look at this and say the best bet is Stenberg. I’m inclined to agree. Bruning’s is laying low, and that may get him the GOP nomination. And then when the Kerrey campaign goes for the jugular, we may be wishing we had Stenberg.

  9. @ Kortezzi says:

    The flaw with that is that regardless of who gets the nomination (even a unknown like Fischer) the RNC will put millions behind them and there will be plenty of money

  10. Brad Stevens says:

    Americans for Prosperity has offered no endorsement in the Nebraska GOP Senate primary. In fact, we do not offer endorsements, period.

    Sweeper, this post implies AFP has endorsed a particular candidate, which is not true. We’d appreciate the post be edited to delete the sentence that inaccurately states AFP has endorsed or contributed to the campaign of any candidate.

    Otherwise, great post with very interesting data.

  11. RWP says:

    So Bruning is way way ahead of Stenberg.
    And Stenberg is way ahead of Fischer.
    And Fischer is way, way ahead of Kerrey.

    Looks to me you could spray paint ‘GOP’ on a rock, and it would beat Bob Kerrey by ten points.

    Maybe the Dems should take a shot on Hassebrook. Couldn’t be any worse!

  12. Jordan & Jamie says:

    No. Grundle King. I’m afraid you’re not clever. Our endorsement is for Bruning. Just in case we’ve been confusing anyone lately.

  13. Oh, a puzzle says:

    Oh, I like puzzles. So the first one would be Jeremy. Being a small community, it wouldn’t be hard to discern which Jeremy that would be.

  14. Anonymostly says:

    If this were my blog, I wouldn’t leave troll posts up. I’d click the delete button on Mr. “Jordan & Jamie” (a/k/a Ian) since he is just trying to get a rise out of people and his posts serve no useful purpose. But this isn’t my blog and so I’ll let sweeper deal with the trash.

  15. Some Thoughts says:

    The advantage to erring on the side of leaving up trolly comments is that people tend to dig their own graves that way. And at the risk of doing that myself …. 🙂
    I’m impressed that Fischer stacks up favorably against Kerrey in the poll despite her name-recognition disadvantage. The big strikes against her–name recognition and lack of funding relative to the others–would evaporate if she was the actual nominee. I just think Stenberg is marked as a loser in the public mind at this point, after his other races, and Fischer is new blood with new ideas. I like her fiscal common sense, and I like that she’d be representing all of the state instead of the particular interests of Omaha or Lincoln powers-that-be.
    That’s all for this week’s regularly scheduled pro-Deb message!

  16. Infected Vasoline says:

    What does the Union of Young Republicans think about the Republican Party candidates? Being a Young Republican Union member, I haven’t seen anything positive or negative come from from the YR camp. I want to be proud of my Union.

  17. Macdaddy says:

    I wonder if Kerrey’s poll numbers will stay that high once people know that the New School, where Kerrey is President Emeritus, just co-hosted a conference with the OWS groups to plot how to start really disrupting things, aka, crank up the violence and bring down the economy. Nothing but crickets from the Kerrey camp. Guess he’s busy putting away the fold-out couch.

  18. To Jordan & Jamie says:

    Jamie doesn’t fit. Consistently bad history with the AG, who has a consistent history of behaving badly and threatening people who don’t do whatever he says. Jamie walked the 4th of July in Seward for Fischer. Good try. Any other ideas?

  19. Anonymostly says:

    Best news of the day: Since Carbonite decided to pull advertising from Rush Limbaugh’s show (oy vey, how offensive it is for him to call the Fluke woman a name for the female genitalia — oh wait, that’s what Bill Maher said about Sarah Palin) their stock has plummeted by 12.5%. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

  20. DEM DEMS says:

    I’m a tad biased but whomever “Jordan & Jamie” is, none of what they’ve posted is “trolling”. Pointing out that Leavenworth Street is pro Bruning? Hardly a stretch. Pretty obvious stuff. Any time Stenberg or Fischer are mentioned, a silly joke follows. Don’t have to be a psychiatrist to read between the lines here.

    Again, love the blog, but how can any of J&J’s comments be construed as offensive or trolling?

  21. Anonymostly says:

    Saying there is a pro-Bruning bias, like you just did, Dem, is not trolling. Repeating the claim ad nauseum and throwing in sexual innuendo while pretending to be someone you’re not is trolling by any reasonable definition.

  22. Senator Snowplow says:

    One of the reasons I support raising legislative pay is because I can’t afford birth control and the taxpayers need to cover it for me. Because grown adults shouldn’t be expected to buy their own contraceptives. Other people should have to provide that stuff to us for free.. And now, I need them to cover diapers also.

  23. DEM DEMS says:

    The innuendo is just plain funny. No different from the sharp quips from the actual SS blog if you ask me.

    “Pretending to be someone else”???!!!!!

    That’s what many SS blog commenters do!!

    Keep crying. There is nothing wrong with anything coming from that poster.

    It’s telling that the moniker is getting to you guys more than the actual comments being left. Grow a pair.

  24. Anonymostly says:

    No, Dem Dem, nothing at all wrong … except the trolling.

    If you’re good with that sexual innuendo, though, then you obviously must have no problem at all with what Rush Limbaugh said about Sandra Fluke. I mean, what Rush said was actually funny compared with the gutter rubbish that you seem to like. I guess there’s no accounting for class with Dem Dems though.

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