A few final, final notes on those PPP polls from last week. We had skipped over the second day results that showed Rick Santorum with a 39% – 25% lead over Mitt Romney in Nebraska.
What does this mean for Santorum? We have to think, nothing. We have yet to see a poll or scenario where Santorum can get the nomination, and frankly if Romney loses in November, we will not be surprised to see some blame heaped on Santorum. But Romney obviously needs to wrap things up himself, and he has yet to do it. Nebraska may get a Santorum visit.
So as a follow up, the Romney vs Obama numbers are not particularly close statewide in Nebraska. Romney holds a 51%-39% lead over the President. But, when you break it down by district, PPP shows it neck and neck in NE02, with Romney holding a one point lead. (Romney has an 8 point lead in NE01 and a 25 point lead in NE03.)
We still think the Obama camp will have much bigger fish to fry in this election rather than worrying about one Electoral Vote in Nebraska. And we also doubt that the enthusiasm will be there for the Dems this time for all of their GOTV activities. And we think things will change in the Second District once Romney sews up the nomination and becomes the national candidate. The Obama camp has been getting a free ride with the attacks by Santorum and Gingrich and Paul and others against Romney. When that disappears, we believe Romney will settle out in the second.
That is our guess. Yours?
In his Monday column, Don Walton, noting the lead the GOP Senate candidates have over Bob Kerrey, tells that an unknown Dem gestured towards Ben Nelson’s lead over Chuck Hagel at a similar point in the 1996 race. And yet Chuck Hagel won!
Well, except for the fact that there were two people running for an open seat, there is pretty much zero similarity to this race.
No one had heard of Chuck Hagel in 1996. Ben Nelson was the sitting Governor.
Today, everyone knows who Bob Kerrey is, yet they still reject him. Heck, no one knows who Deb Fischer is, and they STILL pick her by ten points over Kerrey.
Things will change in this race, but let us do a tiny bit of analysis before we start grasping at broad comparisons.
The OWH finally does a story on the DC fundraisers of the Senate candidates. If you read far enough down into the article. you will even find that Kerrey was in DC too!
The thing we like that it is totally cool for an OWH reporter to be standing around outside of the event to describe what a Senator took home in his doggie bag (sauce-slathered crab cakes!). But somehow it is unseemly for a tracker to be there with a video camera.
We are waiting for the tweets and comments about how alarmed everyone is that reporters are stalking Senate candidates (and focusing on what their guests are consuming).
Kerrey tells the North Platte Bulletin that “everything I own is in Nebraska,” and lists his businesses that he comes back to visit every once in a while.
Of course in his, “everything I own” description, he conveniently left out his New York, West Village loft. And all of his personal possessions, including his skull cap and giant trench coat and the rest of his black hipster clothes that won’t fly in Nebraska. And everything else that fills up his home. And we bet maybe a Prius or two.
But hey, if owning a business or land in Nebraska is all it takes, we are already awaiting the Ted Turner candidacy for Adrian Smith’s seat.
Oh, and Kerrey also goes on to describe his desire for a single-payer health care plan to replace ObamaCare. You may remember that Ben Nelson specifically fought to keep that idea out of ObamaCare…before he voted for the final bill.
But this is what Bob Kerrey wants to bring back folks. And we can tell you that would sell very well…in the West Village. (Psst! That’s in New York City!)
We apologize for not giving you an April Fool’s joke yesterday. So, to make up for it, here is a hillarious story from the OWH that will keep you in stitches for hours. All you really need is the headline:
Whoa! Hohohohoho! Good one, State! Wheeeeee! We’ll look into that right away! Hoohoo….