New Poll: Fischer beating Stenberg; close with Bruning

by Street Sweeper on May 7, 2012

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The Deb Fischer for Senate camp has put out new polling results that show her competing with Jon Bruning. The poll from The Singularis Group, a Kansas City based firm, taken (live) on Sunday, May 6th of

“…400 likely Republican Primary voters in Nebraska’s U.S. Senate race. The confidence interval for the survey is 95% and the margin of error is +/– 4.9%.”

Their results…

Jon Bruning……………..29.8%
Deb Fischer……………..25.6%
Don Stenberg……………18.0%
Pat Flynn…………………..1.3%
Spencer Zimmerman…….1.1%
Sharyn Elander…………….0.0%
Undecided…………………24.2%

Per the OWH’s story, Bruning and Stenberg have already “discounted” this poll, but don’t say why.

One thing that we do keep seeing in all of these polls is the still LARGE number of undecideds. They have to come around some time, but there is a decent argument that this is still anyone’s game.

Well, except Sharyn Elander’s. C’mon. Crack a percentage point, would ya! That’s (Senator) Blutarsky range!

***

**UPDATE at 3:40pm**

We were pointed to RealClearPolitics which has an assortment of polls at their ready. The latest Nebraska GOP primary poll is by an outfit called “We Ask America“. Their poll from May 6th of  1,152 Likely GOP Voters, with 2.9% MOE, looks like this:

Jon Bruning….42%
Deb Fischer….26%
Don Stenberg..23%
Pat Flynn……..4%
Sharyn Elander…3%
Spencer Zimerman..2%

A few interesting things about those numbers:

  • To our knowledge this is an independent group.
  • Respondents were NOT were allowed to go “undecided”.
  • They have Fischer ahead of Stenberg.
  • They have Bruning waaay ahead of Fischer and Stenberg.

***

Stay tuned!

{ 38 comments }

1 Allan May 7, 2012 at 1:56 PM

What I’d really like to see from all these polls is more information on question wording and question order. Not saying that this discounts the poll as a whole, but if you’re going to publish a poll and push it as news then you better put out a full release.

2 Governor 2014 May 7, 2012 at 1:56 PM

Looks like Stenberg can roll over his campaign staff to the 2014 Nebraska Governor’s race already.

3 Agree with Allan May 7, 2012 at 2:11 PM

What’s with Deb shoveling out these numbers without more details. Makes it hard to take the poll seriously, and Deb seriously as a candidate.

4 CC Music Factory May 7, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Not so sure it makes it hard to take Deb seriously, but it does make it hard to analyze the polls. Might be nice if they submitted these to someone trustworthy to do some analysis of the way the poll was conducted. Heck, submit it to Real Clear Politics, or some other site that combines a lot of these polls, and offers the specifics.

I’m still thinking about supporting Deb, and if a poll like this could be determined accurate, I might be willing to throw support her way. Not voting for Don in any primary, but I’m willing to give some thought between my support for Jon and support for Deb. I could see myself supporting either.

5 I was waiting for this May 7, 2012 at 2:20 PM

I don’t care who wins between Brunning and Fischer, they’re both great choices. I prefer Brunning myself. I was waiting for the point where the Stenberg train falls apart.

And the train is on time as usual, just before the Primary.

6 Anonymous May 7, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Looks like a repeat of the 2004 primary in NE01. CFG came out against the hand-picked candidate Curt Bromm (Jon Bruning). CFG’s pick Greg Ruehle (Don Stenberg) doesn’t get any traction. An unknown Fortenberry (Fischer) comes out unscathed and on top.

7 Jon Brunnnnnnning May 7, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Thank you “I was waiting for this”. I appppreciate the support.

8 King Friday May 7, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Also today in the Neighborhood of Make-Believe, the Gary Johnson campaign has released a poll showing him leapfrogging Mitt Romney and in a close second place against Barack Obama.

As a pollster, the Singularis Group makes a heckuva direct mail firm. Probably why they don’t list polling services anywhere on their website.

9 Political Scientist May 7, 2012 at 3:05 PM

I hate to rain on the Fischer campaign but Aaron Trost is working for the Singularis Group. Of course they are going to show that their client is gaining on Bruning. This polls is designed to create a buzz for a candidate who has little name recognition. I would disregard this poll and any other polls that the Fischer campaign puts out. If she can’t be trusted on simple things like a poll, then she can’t be trusted on the big issues that a Senator faces.

10 Shoot the Messenger May 7, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Where are any polling data from Stenberg or Bruning refuting Fischer’s numbers?…..Crickets!

11 Anonymous May 7, 2012 at 3:42 PM

The undecided number is actually the best news for Fischer. Bruning and Stenberg are known quantities. If people were going to support them, they’d have done so by now.

Once people see that Fischer is competitive, they will start rallying late for her a la Santorum in Iowa.

12 Political Scientist May 7, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Those numbers look correct. I had a feeling that Fischer might be beating Stenberg. Once again bad timing for the Fischer campaign. If I were Deb Fischer, I would fire Aaron Trost and Singularis Group because they are horrible at trying to create spin.

13 Allan May 7, 2012 at 4:13 PM

The new results are interesting. I know that a lot of buzz is always made about voters who are undecided and could swing an election in any direction. However, studies in the field of survey research have shown that when you don’t give people the option to say “Don’t Know” and force them to make a choice, their eventual choice on election day does correlate to what they stated before. Not saying the full 25% undecided will split as stated in the second poll, but it does look promising for Bruning.

On another note, one of the major issues with polls in recent years is the erosion of reporting standards. With the 24 hours news cycle, news outlets are always anxiously waiting for “the next big thing.” As a result they pounce on any poll that is published without taking the time to ask for methodology, execution, and analysis information. Campaigns know this, and the rise of “momentum building polls” that are biased are a serious issue in my opinion. I just hate seeing news releases about polls without full disclosure from campaigns.

14 CC Music Factory May 7, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Don’t forget, P.S., that the weaskamerica didn’t allow you to choose undecided. But I tend to agree with you, that those numbers are probably pretty accurate.

I think Deb may still have a shot at this. I think this shows that the negative campaigning appears to have potentially hurt Don more than Jon, if it really moved the needle much at all. I think those numbers today could change some, but I think Deb and Don are probably both going to fall about ten percentage points short.

15 PS-BS! May 7, 2012 at 4:22 PM

It is amazing how in your ‘assessments’ you offer no objective evidence but turn instead to some sort of innate sense you believe you possess for all things political. If you’d have read the “We Ask” methodology you would have noted they are automated calls with no evidence of any sort of weighting. Sure they got over a 1000 of them – big Whoop! Ironic that someone using your same moniker failed to check similar facts on the Nebraska Watchdog poll a few days back before running off at the mouth.

16 Allan May 7, 2012 at 4:28 PM

PS-BS – I hadn’t looked at the release by WeAsk. You’re right that the poll is automated and again I’d love to see weighting/crosstabs. I’d also like to see how they determined who is a “likely Republican voter” but that’s another issue. Automated polls are always plagued by a number of issues, but the sample size is not one of them. I think that if 1500 voters can ascertain the views of 300M Americans, 1100 can do so for Nebraska with some degree of certainty.

17 Political Scientist May 7, 2012 at 4:37 PM

PS-BS- Well, the Fischer campaign has not give out any methodology or there questions too. If you knew anything about polling, you would know that 1,152 sample is a very large sample. But I guess you don’t and this is bad news for the Fischer campaign who are trying to create a buzz when there is none. If this poll is so bad why has realclearpolitics published this poll and not any polls done by the Fischer campaign.

18 Anon May 7, 2012 at 4:48 PM

“Likely voters” really does not say much since early voting started some time ago. Also with so many undecideds, it is futile to suggest they will show up and vote Bruning.

Also, the Fischer polling is awfully small and has a huge margin of error.

Stay tuned.

19 CC Music Factory May 7, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Exactly, folks. Probably the thing that gave this poll more credibility for me is the fact that Real Clear Politics published it on their site. RCP doesn’t seem to be into publishing just any poll, so it would seem they have at least some confidence in the pollsters that did this one.

20 Lil Mac May 7, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Forget Dallas. Debbie Does Subterfuge! But she does it rather well.

She leaked an earlier poll showing her two pts behind Don AND Don and Deb edging nearer Jon, which encouraged Don to attack Jon, thus suckering Don into doing her dirty work. This new Deb poll is more of the same. It appears Deb has bent Don over and used him like Bob used Hassebrook.

We can see why she tried this. Most voters don’t ask if a poll is accurate if that poll is repeated by the press. The OWH and LJS want to see Kerrey win, they see Deb as easier for Kerrey to beat, thus they are happy to print unsubstantiated Fischer polls as truth and Deb knows that. But Bruning knows that too. He will simply produce counter-polling. Fischer will have trouble maintaining the illusion as her skews bump up against substantiated polling. And in the end, all this shows Debbie sneaky and expedient and smarter than Stenberg. So, good try Deb, but it is still Bruning’s to lose.

21 @Political Scientist May 7, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Bruning for Senate field staff does not qualify as “political scientist.” *cough*

22 Political Scientist May 7, 2012 at 6:08 PM

@@Political Scientist- Tell that to the University of Nebraska because they have given me a MS in Political Science.

23 Sweetwater Observer May 7, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Deb Fischer has earned my contributions and my vote! I am happy that I listened to her early on at a gathering in Kearney! Deb is an honest hard worker with no baggage like Stenberg and Bruning. An added plus is that the OWH has not assigned a rotating group of “reporters” to do daily hatchet jobs on her.

You go, Deb!

24 Anonymous May 7, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Sweetheaded Obscurer at 6:15, Deb isn’t a target of the Omaha World-Herald and its zillionaire Democrat owner because Buffett thinks Debbie couldn’t beat an egg in Bob Kerrey’s shoe. If you looked at a real poll, you’d see that Buffett is as right about this as he is about investing.

But it is good that you have donated to Deb, because; (a) everyone should be so involved in politics, and, (b) those as stupid as you should waste their money rather than do something even more dangerous with it.

25 keeping it real May 7, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Deb’s “poll” brings her campaign to new lows. The Singularis Group employs her campaign manager Aaron Trost. She indeed may be ahead of Don (that wouldn’t be difficult to believe) but within 4% while a 3rd party poll shows her down by 16%. What a joke. Yet, I’ll take bets that this will make Don W. and Robynn’s T.’s headlines tomorrow and without any reference to the Trost connection. ‘Course that is what the Fischer campaign is counting on.

26 Macdaddy May 7, 2012 at 6:34 PM

I am planning on voting for Bruning but I would have no problem with Fischer if I knew she was capable of picking up the pace. If her effort in the primary so far is indicative of how she’ll run in the general, then Kerrey will clean her clock. I am also concerned about her ability to defend conservative positions. I believe she is conservative. I think she’ll vote how I want her to vote if she were a Senator. But to get elected, she has to be able to tell people why she’s taking the positions she does. There is, unfortunately, a double standard. If you are a Republican woman candidate, it is not enough to do the right things. People need to be convinced you know what you are doing as well. If you’re a rich, white, Democrat male, logic and consistency are not required.

27 Anon May 7, 2012 at 6:36 PM

The problems with these late polls is early voting has already started. These late polls merely reflect the volatility of the race of the undecideds. Bruning may win but I doubt it will be over 35 percent.

28 ricky May 7, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Whatever, Bob Kerrey will clobber whomever comes out of the primary.
A G Bruning’s sugar daddy David Sokol is coming to Omaha the day before the primary.
Maybe the two can get together for a photo-op.
Also I hear the Bellevue Chief of Police and the Gretna city administrator are having a meet-and-greet for Rep Lee Terry next weekend. That should be interesting.
And did I see Hal Daub on the ballot for ANOTHER race; this time for N U Regent from my district?
Won’t that guy ever learn?

ricky from omaha

29 Interested Observer May 7, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Actually, we’ve ALL donated to Deb thru our taxpayer funded FREE grazing she’s received for 40 years on McKelvie National Forest. It’s come to MILLIONS of welfare for her.

I call that BAGGAGE!!!

30 Interested Observer May 7, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Also, when Deb served on the Ad Hoc Committee for redistricting, she cast the DECIDING vote for the current Legislative Districts map and completely alienated most of the voters in Custer County, Box Butte County, Dawes County and Sheridan County.

I call that BAGGAGE!

31 Macdaddy May 7, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Kerrey’s really burning through the dough. Can’t change the channel without seeing his skeletal mug on the tube. Isn’t he running unopposed?

32 Anonymous May 7, 2012 at 9:24 PM

So anybody notice how the OWH is now making ya pay to read it? Well, now how will that wash with the Kerry group who needs the OWH badly, and not as some point in the future but RIGHT NOW. Boy is it going to hurt when the free online won’t apply for the endorsement season in the General Election.

But then again maybe Warren will buy everybody a subscription for the October Surprise, it’s better than gold as we all know civilized people buy ice cream.

33 @ The Wolves May 7, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Wow, who unleashed the wolves on Deb Fischer? Where’d all the hatred come from? Must be some serious buyer’s remorse in the Bruning camp tonight.

34 Ikon May 7, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Fischer’s worst enemy is her lame con-sulting firm! These people are clueless. Trying to portray her as the Marlboro Gal or Jane Kleeb even. She does so much better in “real” life interviews without the corny BS. The TV that her agency is crapping out as marketing for her, makes her look like a ditz. She would be very wise to make an executive decision & fire the clowns now before it’s too late & get some hard-hitting, gutsy, REAL TV on the air NOW! .

She or they or both need to remember that the numbers are in Omaha & Lincoln & not home on the range where the Deer & the Antelope play! Sad to say it may be to late already because of the damage, to her campaign, that her con-sulting firm has done. But then I always say, if the candidate is to stupid to see what is happening in their own back yard, then they don’t deserve to be representing the public in Washington.

Sad thing is, that Fischer most likely, potentially, could have served Nebraskan so much better than that self-serving, egomaniac dickhead, J Burning might have. It’s also a good thing that neither will get the chance for the obvious reasons, 1. Fischer’s lack of competent choice of con-sultants and 2. J Bruning’s total lack of caring for anything other than his own pathetic self!!

35 Some Thoughts May 8, 2012 at 12:55 AM

The story here is that Fischer has gone from having 10-12% of the vote up to having a quarter of it, and likely beating Stenberg at this point. For all those trying to discount the Singularis poll because of Trost, its numbers look much like those in the other poll with the exception that all the undecideds were forced to commit. Time is not on Fischer’s side now, to convince those undecideds to give her a second look. If she had another month, though, I bet her numbers would continue to rise. As people start to pay attention to voting this month, her stock appears to be rising. She’s the one candidate in this race who has stuck to the high ground and is really authentic.

Bruning continues to strike me as doing everything for #1, rather than serving the public. He tries to paint himself as leading the charge in the courts against Obamacare, but he has been an irrelevant spectator in that fight. The insinuation that Stenberg did something creepy on twitter was also completely inappropriate.

36 Interested Observer May 8, 2012 at 7:52 AM

Why does this site REFUSE to post the TRUTH about Deb?

37 Re: The Wolves May 8, 2012 at 8:18 AM

Who unleashed the wolves? That would be the Stenberg camp. This has been their method the entire time. Extremely negative and unpolished.

I’m sure they really don’t appreciate the idea that they’re 3rd.

38 Never Left The Neb May 8, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Ricky bobby is again in no where land. Trying to tie Lee Terry to 2 potential criminals isn’t going to work. Now, if you were trying to tie John Ewing to Stacey and Lowry…….

BTW, David is probably coming to town to give several thousand dollars away to a local hero in honor of his son that died of cancer.

Ricky, you and your ilk should be very happy that he is still willing to do this for a community that has turned their backs on him so readily.

David Sokol is ten times the man that you are.

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