NEWER Poll: Bruning leads Fischer by 2pts

A NEWER poll, commissioned by EndingSpending.org — the SuperPac supporting Deb Fischer — shows that Jon Bruning leads Deb Fischer by 2 points.

See the results from Wenzel Strategies (referenced by Don Walton earlier) here:

Bruning……37.7%
Fischer…….35.2%
Stenberg…..15.7%
Other………..3%
Don’t know….8.4%

560 respondents
MOE +/- 4.12%
See the poll summary memo here.

Again, this confirms that the race is tight, but goes against the earlier We Ask America poll showing Fischer up by 5%.

The fact that it was commissioned by the Fischer fans gives it a little more credence as well. It is a tight race between Fischer and Bruning — and Stenberg is fading.

We STILL think that Stenberg gets his people out to vote, though. We have a feeling that Stenberg’s pull could affect the race votes that otherwise might have gone to Bruning or Fischer.

More as we get it!

52 comments

  1. Interested Observer says:

    Why, in the world, would a poll have more credence simply because it was commissioned by a candidate’s fans?

    I think this poll is almost as phony and unbelievable as the cheap little plastic world globe with the light inside that as re-gifted on Saturday with the insulting note that MANY, MANY people in Valentine are talking about right now!

  2. Political Genius says:

    I have to believe that Jon will win by 5. Fischer waited too long on her endorsements and the Rickets commercial is late. They should have done this at the commencement of early voting. I bet Jon has a 10 to 15 point lead in those ballots.

    P.S. Where were all these last minute Deb Fischer supporters 3 or 4 months ago? If Deb is the second coming, where were you when she needed you the most. When Deb loses it will be because of two things. 1) she sat on her butt for 6 months after she announced and 2) her new supporters came late to the party.

  3. FlippetyFlop says:

    Three words: margin of error. Its massive in the EndSpending poll (4.12%) and the sample size is small (560). The MOE is smaller in the WeAskAmerica poll and the sample size is larger. Fischer is well within the margin of error on EndSpending’s polls and Bruning is out of the margin in the WeAskAmerican poll. Based on the two polls, Fischer is definitively ahead but its not entirely clear by how much.

  4. Interested Observer says:

    It would be interesting to calculate the total direct donations to the various campaigns, then divide the individual campaign’s donations by that total to determine the percent of the total that each individual campaign has received. I wonder if the vote count will reflect the donations? I’m not considering these outside PAC efforts to try to buy this election. I’m just wondering what the average Nebraskan might have donated to this election.

    I also do not even begin to accept the premise that Deb is the new Virginia Smith. That’s about the most insulting thing ever to our fond memory of Virginia.

    I knew Virginia Smith. I campaigned for Virginia Smith. I voted for Virginia Smith.
    Deb , you’re NO Virginia Smith!

  5. Anonymous says:

    Where were Fischer’s supporters 3 or 4 months ago? Probably in the Bruning camp. Mr. Ricketts recently discovered what Paul Johnson is holding back for October and is doing what he can to limit the damage to the NEGOP.

  6. @anonymous@1:30 says:

    Where were Fischer’s supporters 3 or 4 months ago, you ask? Well, right here in Kearney at a fundraiser for her. Later, right here in Kearney again, writing checks to mail to her.

    And today, you might ask? Well, I was in downtown Kearney, greeting Deb Fischer as she did a walk around downtown, talking to voters and asking for their support in tomorrow’s primary.

    Deb knows how to work hard, has a very positive attitude, and has NO FEAR of Cosmic Bob.

  7. Mr. Goodbody says:

    I’m told there’s a NEGOP poll that shows Deb Fischer up by three points, too.

    Why is Leavenworth publishing ads attacking Mitt Romney? Yikes.

  8. Macdaddy says:

    Ah, yes, the mysterious October surprise that everyone “knows” about but for some reason is still kept hush-hush in this day and age of no secrets. If Joe Ricketts thought it was so bad that it would be a catastrophe if Bruning is the nominee, why wouldn’t he have made a commercial with this devastating news to ensure Bruning loses? Instead he’s going to come with a warmed over version of the OWH? Seems like a waste of time and money.

  9. MG at 2:25:
    The Google ads you see up are automated. Just about anything political can come through.
    (And it’s a giant hassle to try to block certain ones.)
    If you have a real poll, send it in!!
    -Ed.

  10. Senator Snowplow says:

    Macdaddy, I explained the October Surprise in another recent thread in a post that is awaiting moderation. You think just because Stenberg doesn’t know about it that its not knowable? Think again. And then think about what circles Jon travelled in back in the late 80s/early 90s and ask yourself where those people might be today and I can tell you its not in the Stenberg camp.

  11. Lincolnite says:

    I’ll be honest. My wife and I always vote absentee. We sent our ballots in about 3 weeks ago. I’m no fan but we voted for Bruning because I just assumed he had the nomination all locked up and I figured the more he won by the less people could say he was a weak candidate against Cosmic Bob. I wish I would have waited to vote because I would now vote for Deb Fischer.

  12. Macdaddy says:

    If Kerrey wants to dredge up stuff from 20 years ago when Bruning was in his teens/early 20s, then Kerrey really is running a last century campaign. Is Ms. Halpin intimating something about Bruning’s dating life? Yes, let’s talk about that. There are approximately 0.1% of non-democrats who think that is more important than the economy and overturning obamacare. The only October surprise that could hurt Bruning is a Justice Department indictment, and for people to know that this far out means Eric Holder and President Obama should be impeached for abuse of power.

  13. Maria Crofts Halpin says:

    Jon will lose a major endorsements when the Animal House sequel comes out.

  14. Anonymous says:

    It cracks me up that people post “Who is Deb Fischer?” They are obvious Bruning or Stenberg supporters. If they have enough smarts to post on a blog solely devoted to NE Republican Politics then I am sure they no who Deb is.

    It is amazing to see the childish behaviors come out when people take sides…

  15. Edwin W. Edwards says:

    Jon can quote what I said back in ’83, “The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy”

  16. Anonymous says:

    Just got a robo whining call from Wee Jon Bruning. His call was full off partial truths, and innuendos. What a tool.

  17. Anonymous says:

    All the money and slick ads can’t make people like you…and tomorrow we’ll see that people just don’t like Jon Bruning. Plain and simple.

    Deb did this the old fashioned way. All she needed was for people to believe she had a chance. She’s got a chance.

  18. Bi-Curious says:

    Sweeper,
    Any predictions on the senate race? Who and by how much? How about Congress in the 2nd?

  19. @ Edwin Edwards says:

    If you are referring to Jon’s antics in TNE (Theta Nu Epsilon), just remember, “Little is known, and what is known, is NEVER told”.

  20. If Fellers Loses This One says:

    …..does he automatically replace Vicki Powell as biggest campaign manager blunders in Nebraska history?

  21. oneofthe20000 says:

    5:14, Deb Fischer “is one of us”. Really?

    Deb Fischer is one of only 136 out of 20,000 Nebraska beef producers (less than one percent) who are allowed to raise cattle on federal land under a program that cost taxpayers $140 mil/year and yet collects only $21 million/year in grazing fees from a few like Fischer. The poorest working American taxpayers who struggles to buy milk for their kids, have their tax dollars go to fund Fischer growing beef for free, to her massive personal profit. And she says she’s against earmarks.

    So, you mean you are one of those 136? Congratulations. Or, you are some idiot she sucked in.

  22. Interested Observer says:

    Deb Fischer is the Leona Helmsley of Nebraska! Only the little people pay taxes.

  23. Interested Observer says:

    One of the 20000, so am I! We’re part of the 19,864 and we make it on our own, not off the backs of the taxpayers.

  24. Anonymous says:

    Jonny B. has never had a real opponent, and now he got his nose popped a good one. The add where Jonny is saying boo hoo, Stenberg and Fischer don’t like me……. it’s just what we expected from a Frat boy…..BS.

    Now who was it that ran against Christensen way back when and the fight raged in the sewers…… and low and behold who calmly, and with distinction waltz’s into the the GOP Governors bid, Hmmmm Mike Johanns.

    Looks like the poo fighters will lose……..:) AGAIN!!!!

  25. Some Thoughts says:

    Please, some of these insinuations against Bruning are totally uncalled for. He may not be my choice, but there’s no reason to go spreading lies and insults about him. I like to think that in Nebraska, it’s a small enough world, and a very small political world, that we can rise to a better level. No need to eat our own in the primary, please.

  26. Pat Flynn has entered the World says:

    of RoboCalling!!

    And Magellan Strategies out polling favorables/unfavorables, GOP Senate race.

    I love GOTV weekend phone calls!!!

  27. Larry Kroger says:

    Jon Bruning and his Theta NU Epsilon frat brothers will be exposed. Skull and Bones has nothing on these guys.

  28. Anda, ya. says:

    Really? Innuendo about bruning’s past? think about it. If a bunch of pocket politicians website meets section can’t even see fit to print something, you think the OWH would?

    Reality is that this is a somewhat predictable outcome. Too many republicans with too few seats, ultimately, they bash each others heads in. Bruning’s only sin was being the front runner. Debs virtue is that she, intent unknown, stayed in the background and let stenberg and bruning bludgeon each other.

    Funny, my IPAD keeps auto correcting bruning to “burning”. Hopefully not an omen…

  29. Anonymous says:

    well said Anda……….. but reality is what it is, isn’t it?

    Oh and Don aka Da Dork, is in a SOLID 3rd.

    Lot’s of people today were saying they plan on pulling the lever for Fischer, but unfortunately for her the early voting for Douglas County may be as high as ever, maybe even better than 35% of the vote….. with thousands still out there………. Fortunate for GOPers though as a whole….closed primary and all…….but then again Susie Buffet has been busing folks in to the polls now for weeks…….

  30. Anonymous says:

    Bruning complains to tv stations to pull the adds against him, well the stations did some vetting and the complaints were found to be without merit. So the spots will be airing again. Poor Jon, got into a fight on the playground and got punched in the mouth. Went crying to the yard monitor and now has to go back out to play with the kids.

    What a wuss, he dishes it out but can’t take it. I sure as heck hope the voters of Nebraska send Fischer on to the General Election. And send Stenberg back to Sarpy County!

  31. Mike says:

    Where are the anti Fischer stories in the World Herald or the journal Star? I’ve spent som time in her county and I have not met a person up there who likes her. What about the 9 DUI’s from her three sons? Isn’t she the Chairperson of the transportation Committee? I’m confused. I suppose the WH and JS want her or Stenberg to win so Kerrey will win. She is a dirty person. If Bruning had the ranching deal she had, he’d be in jail. At least he made his own money – which apparently is not what Republicans are about any more. Yes please, let’s pick some people with NO business experience. Deb Fischer is dirty dirty dirty. Look at the facts.

  32. Some Thoughts says:

    Mike, that is ridiculous, false, and mean-spirited. Every time you people try to trash Deb for her “ranching deal”, it simply highlights the fact that she’s a… rancher! You know, a hard-working person who represents the best of what we do in Nebraska. I’d love to hear Bob Kerrey try to trash Deb’s “grazing permit”, thereby reminding voters that while she was here raising cattle, he was off in NYC! You want us to look at the “facts”, yet you have nothing factual to offer about her record, or the policies she supports, or what you expect her to do in the Senate. Stop being rude.

  33. Interested Observer says:

    Mike, I agree with you completely. Don’t worry about Small Thoughts. I’m convinced he’s a paid Deb employee.

  34. Interested Observer says:

    Any rancher who’s been living off the taxpayers to the tune of $110,000 – $200,000 every year for 3 generations and still is MILLIONS of dollars in debt is a very poor example of a “fiscal conservative”.
    Deb only decided to become “100% pro-life” when she decided to run for the Legislature. Her best friend is Valentine’s most outspoken abortion advocates. Deb decided to park her Acura and bought a Ford when she decided to run for the Senate.

    Deb is NOT “one of us”.
    But,
    Deb is ALL about Deb.

  35. I'm Just a Bill says:

    Fisher is winning because she is less of a career politician than the rest of this crew. Bruning has been shaking sand out of his bathing suit at his beach house with people who he should have been investigating, Stenberg has met an office he doesn’t like, so long as that office leads him to a Senate run and nobody knows Deb which, in this election cycle, works for her.

  36. Some Thoughts says:

    Heck yes, I would love to get paid for blowing hot air on the internet. My services come cheap–I’ll take a nice shipment of T-bones as compensation! How do I sign up for that?

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