New #NESEN poll out

**Update at 10:55 am**

A poll by Gravis Marketing was forwarded to us in the Nebraska Senate race.
This race is very, very early, and not all candidates are even in or doing much.
We are told this is from a national firm that does various races.
That being said, here are the “Key Findings”:

“If the Republican Primary for the 2014 Nebraska U.S. Senate race were held today, would you vote for…”

Shane Osborn: 41%
Sid Dinsdale: 7%
Ben Sasse: 5%
Bart McLeay: 2%
Unsure: 44%

**

Have you heard of him?

Osborn: 80%
Dinsdale: 19%
Sasse: 14%
McLeay: 9%

**
Osborn favorability:  44%
Osborn unfavorability:  9%
No opinion: 47%

Dinsdale favorability:  9%
Dinsdale unfavorability:  10%
No opinion: 81%

Sasse favorability:  7%
Sasse unfavorability:  10%
No opinion: 83%

McLeay favorability:  4%
McLeay unfavorability:  10%
No opinion: 86%

Survey sample: 1,842 registered Nebraska voters on 9/6/2013 to 9/7/2013.
All survey participants must have had voted in at least one Republican primary.
2.2% margin of error.

As we noted, we aren’t all that surprised by these numbers, considering all media thus far has been earned.
Interesting, though not surprising early numbers, but get back to us when some money has been spent.

***

2014 GOP Gov logos 02Some thoughts after the announcements over the past few days:

  • Kudos to the Ricketts camp for arranging sitdowns with both the OWH and the LJS to get featured articles on their candidate. The Saturday evening, post Husker game rollout –which otherwise seemed to make no sense — comes into a little better perspective with the OWH Sunday article, and then the LJS’s Monday piece.
  • Also, when you get sit down with the reporter and give out “exclusive!” interviews, you get things like talking about how “different” your campaign team will be, and how your consultant is “widely respected.”
    And that’s not to say that Jessica Moenning isn’t one of the better known names among Nebraska consultants.
    But, not sure how you just sort of reference in passing the fact that she managed the Ricketts 2006 campaign (as Tysver did), and then skip that point altogether, as Walton did.
    Just sayin’.
  • The past couple days’ articles made it pretty clear of Tysver’s favorite (again, noting the “widely respected” consultant Ricketts has).
    And then there was Don Walton’s intro of Mike Foley with a “with a strong message of conservative fiscal values and pro-life conviction.”
    Funny that when, say, a Charlie Janssen came out with the similar — or the same — “strong message”, Walton labels him as pushing “hot button” issues.
  • And then somehow the introduction of Foley by Jeff Fortenberry gets pretty much no mention at all?
    The”introduction” by Fortenberry helped to establish Deb Fischer as a legitimate candidate in the Senate primary last year.
    And with the crowded GOP field, many who we talked to figured Fortenberry’s introduction meant that Foley was just going to announce his re-up for Auditor.
    Fort’s move was calculated and significant — and if Foley goes down, don’t think that whomever wins will forget Fortenberry’s early endorsement.
  • We had been told that Matt Williams of Gothenburg was “out” for Gov. (Funny, we don’t remember Walton mentioning him before, yet no reference to the “chatter” on “the blogs”, huh? Oh well…) Walton suggests that he still may be in, so we’ll see. But another name in for Gov — and with a field that diluted — and you could see a name like Don Stenberg, who could win a primary based on name ID alone.
  • We are hearing that Senate candidate Ben Sasse has been impressing the money movers and shakers in Omaha. But we still think Shane Osborn has the edge west of Lincoln. He’s already won statewide, and we think he generally comes across better than Sasse. Also, with Sid Dinsdale’s money and Bart McLeay’s Omaha connections, Osborn’s name ID will make a difference.
  • As noted by Walton, Beau McCoy will begin a statewide Gubernatorial campaign roll out tomorrow, traversing the state.

Yes, you may comment on the Gov candidate logos on the right!

118 comments

  1. Patriot says:

    It looks like Tom Carlson enjoys degrading the flag. The American flag cut out in the shape of Nebraska is beyond disrespectful.

  2. Pacific Street Pundit says:

    It is very clear that Walton sees this as Ricketts vs Foley vs Also Rans. Foley has been elected statewide, so I suppose he deserves front-runner status, but he’s never raised serious money and he’s done absolutely nothing in a decade of elected office to grow his political circle. I will not be surprised when Foley finishes 3rd.

  3. When Walton Dreams says:

    Walton and all the liberals are hoping for a RINO who is very muddied on the issues. We keep hearing Pete is a conservative who wants a strong education for our children and a strong economy for our businesses. Can you say that anyone in the Republican primary field DOESN’T want that? The winner of this primary is going to have to find a way to distance himself from the others, and hopefully have a voting record that proves he is a true conservative.

  4. Might want to check your facts Macdaddy says:

    The Navy colors of blue and gold have meaning: blue represents the ocean and seas; gold is the color of integrity and valor.

    Sidenote, the name “Macdaddy” is creepy.

  5. The Ricketts Racket says:

    You can’t trust The Ricketts Racket. Moneybags during the city mayoral primary was telling republican insiders that Jean Stothert was not really prolife, which was and is a big lie. Very hypocritical considering his wife is one of the biggest Omaha liberals and prochoice affluent backers of Planned Parenthood. He is a snake and serpent head, the GOP version of James Carville but not near as entertaining.

  6. BTO jr. says:

    I thought Bachman Turner Overdrive was from Canada.
    From the looks of it, Carlson’s logo was designed by his great-granddaughter, Foley is advertising some kind of soft drink, Janssen’s looks like the logo for a car dealership, McCoy stole his from a bicycle repair shop, and Ricketts is promoting something from the Soviet Army.

  7. ricky says:

    Does anybody know why Beau McCoy is running for Governor? Man these politicians have big egos. McCoy has never been a committee chair (come to think of it neither has Janssen), nobody knows who McCoy is, and nobody likes him, so why waste your money?
    I didn’t know Ricketts wife is a big backer of Planned Parenthood. Ricketts for Governor is starting to warm up for me!
    Apparently Janssen doesn’t scare anybody away from running. Can Mr Street Sweeper run that picture from Janssen’s announcement again. I get a big kick out of those old guys in the funny hats and the flags and all. Thanks.

    ricky

  8. Libelous Dirtbag says:

    Dear Racket Dirtbag,

    Don’t let facts get in the way of your dragging a candidate and their wife through the political mud. Karl Haushofer is blushing from the grave.

  9. Not so Slick Rick says:

    Ricky wrong again? Say it ain’t so!

    Janssen was elected to chair the Legislature’s Committee on Intergovernmental Cooperation as a freshman senator. He later wrote a bill to eliminate the committee, and his own chairmanship, which passed (but Janssen doesn’t pass any bills!)

    Ricky is right on McCoy, however. Not only has McCoy never been elected committee chair but far as I know doesn’t have a single endorsement from any of his colleagues. Hmmmm.

  10. Omaha's Fire Chief laying on the couch says:

    Dear Mayor,
    Thanks for putting me on administrative leave so I can sit around and watch football. How is my toadie replacement doing? He and I are both making fire chief salaries right?
    Funny way to balance the fire department budget.
    And how is it going talking to the big shot republicans about my pension?
    Fooey I thought I was going to make history with the biggest Omaha pension of all time.
    Let me know I’ll be at home or at Scooters.

  11. Ricky says:

    Ha ha that was me the fake fire chief #19.
    I always wanted to use the fake name gambit.

    ricky from river city

    seriously how come Omaha has two chiefs

  12. The latest MECA board member says:

    Hey does anybody know where I left my car keys? Which house again?
    And when is the next MECA board meeting?
    They keep that secret from me even.
    I need to know because I can not believe it leaked out how much they are paying my company to sweep up.
    How loaded is MECA anyway I need to see those books.

    Bellevue lady

  13. Anonymous says:

    Seems there was a rumor about Ricketts’ wife and Planned Parenthood in 2006 that was put to bed by the campaign. Moreover, if that was true, then why did all of the Republican office-holders stand with Pete and endorse him, including Foley? If it wasn’t substantial then, it shouldn’t still have legs now.

  14. Macdaddy says:

    Anon 12:23, thanks for the explanation of the colors. I never learned that in OIS. Oh, wait. I did. Right after I put on my dress blues that were actually black.

    BTW, I went to the Janssen website and his logo looks more like navy blue there but it’s still hard to tell. He might want to lighten it up a notch or two, at least on the web. Maybe it looks more blue on a bumper sticker in the sunlight. I have yet to see one, so who knows?

  15. FEC says:

    I don’t know about Pete Ricketts’ wife and Planned Parenthood, but I do know she’s given big $$$ to pro-choice liberals Hillary Clinton and John Ewing. You’re welcome, Lee Terry!

  16. To Macdaddy says:

    Then why did you say “Well, if Janssen is using deep navy blue to reference the US Navy, that’s another fail, because Navy blue is actually black.”

  17. It's Dinsdale, Not Ricketts says:

    I think many of you are mistaken. It is Sid Dinsdale who has immediate family working for Planned Parenthood, not Ricketts.

  18. Macdaddy says:

    Thank you, Anon 2:04. And in the interest of being even-handed, I think they all suck. They’re boring. Carlson’s Nebraska flag is too weird, Foley picked a dreadful font, and do you really want something that looks like flowing water when your name is Foley? Janssen needs to lighten up the blue or switch to blue from black and make the yellow lines bigger and make all of them yellow. I give McCoy props for swimming upstream and using red, but it’s a little too busy. Take Republican out of the red bar, drop the Beau, the 2 red lines and the star. McCoy, Governor has a tough ring to it. Ricketts’ needs to be darker blue and with a different font. I like the Red Star, but be prepared to be addressed as Comrade at the debates.

    Eventually we’ll get to the issues.

  19. Tonic & Tonic says:

    Objectively, I have to question LJS or OWH ( I forgot which one) for calling Foley and Ricketts the frontrunners. They both JUST entered the race. Foley has done a good job and has won statewide before, so I suppose he is projected to finish well.

    Ricketts, and I’m writing objectively here, just hopped in the race and his negatives poll at about 46%. How is johnny-come-lately who has high negatives a supposed front runner?

  20. Interested Observer says:

    I wonder what percentage of the votes the winner will get in either the Senate or the Governor race? With this many running, it may get pretty split up.

    That brings up the difficulty they all will have competing for donations from the same pool.

  21. Fremont Voter says:

    The Gravis poll confirms what we have known for a long time. If you know Ben Sasse, you probably don’t like Ben Sasse.

  22. Somewhere in Middle America says:

    It’s sort of remarkable that with three of the Senate candidates, more people expressed an opinion as to whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidate than purported to know the candidate. With McLeay (who really is a nice guy), more people had an unfavorable view of him (10%) than said they knew him (9%). Ouch. Osborn pulled off the remarkable feat of being by far the best known (80%) while having the lowest negatives (9%). Sasse may raise some money, but he has shown that he does not understand that it’s no DC and retail politics count for a lot — and Osborn has been at it for a long time. Dinsdale still has a chance to rethink the stupidity of entering this race. Moreover, Nebraskans might well want to think about whether electing someone who can serve one, or at most two, terms in the Senate is really in their interest.

  23. Checking MacDaddy’s facts…Navy Blue entry on Wikipedia

    “In practice, actual blue uniforms of the United States Navy and other navies have been changed to outright black in color, because of difficulties in exact matching of shades of blue from various suppliers.”

    I tend not to argue about uniforms with people who’ve worn them. There are plenty of opportunities to look stupid already, without inventing more.

  24. Anonymous says:

    When a reporter asked Ricketts about Moenning losing him the 06 race, that was a trap, or at least a tar-pit, which Ricketts refused to step in. The aim is to get him to slap his own electorate.

    Moenning didn’t lose Ricketts that race. He obviously spent enough money. They both loudly yelled the warning that Nelson would pimp out every Conservative Nebraskan who trusted Nelson. They were both proved right and that means NE voters were horribly wrong.

    Nebraska voters are embarrassed because they trusted Ben Nelson who pimped them to Liberal DC Democrats, which in turn guaranteed Obama’s reelection. NE Conservatives passed Obamacare and saved the Democrat administration.

    This is not a regular level of mild embarrassment. These aren’t even like indignant rape victims. These are anti-Liberal-DC Conservative Nebraskans who volunteered to ignore Ricketts and instead climbed aboard Nelson’s bus that turned out to be a political whorehouse for Obama. They were flat on their backs when they realized what Nelson’s kickback meant. That is soul scarring embarrassment. It hurts them when it is said aloud. Ricketts didn’t say it aloud.

    Newspapers would love to have Ricketts slap his own electorate by reminding them, “See, I told you Nelson would pimp you like a bunch of cheap whores.”

  25. Anonymous says:

    Ok so we have a number of Nebraskan’s now who are Republican who would like the privilege of leading the executive branch, good. There are at least 2 demo rates who are vying for that position, ok.

    Any of the R’s have a better chance than the two D’s. Good.

    What we need now is to sit back and see what they all DO from here on out.

    Of course it would be great if they went out and actually met Nebraskan’s one on one and not just rely on tv, mailers, and high dollar impersonal venues.

  26. The Dudd called Ben Sasse says:

    Ben has been Listening and Campaigning all Summer. Evidently Nebraskans are too smart for Ben Sasse, hence his pathetic poll numbers.

  27. To Anonymous #47 says:

    How DARE you to doubt the effectiveness of the strategies fabricated by Nebraska’s finest political minds. Not everyone can be a punk with a political science degree. By the way, what ever became of Kyle Michaelis and NNN?

  28. Somewhere in Middle America says:

    To 48: Actually, I think Ben has been doing very little listening and his idea of campaigning may be fine for the DC suburbs, but doesn’t really work in Nebraska.

  29. UNL Math Grad says:

    What is the direct relation to Ben Sasse’s poll number to the years he has lived in Nebraska as an adult? My computation shows a direct relationship. I do not have a variable that accounts for his smugness or arrogance.

  30. Entitlement says:

    The problem with Ben Sasse is he believes he is entitled to be Senator. Ben needs to look at who we have elected as Senator. UNO, UNL and Creighton grads. Just ask Scott Kleeb what an Ivy League education buys you.

  31. SS Fact Check says:

    Actually, Fortenberry did not do an “introduction” of Deb Fischer. He put out a YouTube video supporting her on May 10, the Thursday before the election, and well after she was within striking distance of Bruning, and (I think) after Palin endorsed her.

    Kay Orr – as well as Phil Young and Jessica Moenning (although I don’t find her to be particularly newsworthy, SS clearly does) – supported her from the very beginning. Orr is SS’s favorite World Herald before Fischer was in the race inviting Fischer to run.

    Just sayin’.

  32. Lil Mac says:

    “It would be great if they (candidates) went out and actually met Nebraskan’s one on one and not just rely on tv, mailers, and high dollar impersonal venues.” The blogger, who otherwise makes much sense, wrote that in this electronic venue instead of going out and telling this to people one-on-one.

    The most common quality of voters is hypocritical indignancy. None of us are immune from its bad impact because being rational is a thin veneer over eons of animal reaction. And so we tend to elect bad government because instead of us hiring adept managers of policy, we stupidly seek political saviors.

    We assume we are rational, but instead of seeking to hire policy managers we howl for a pack alpha.

    Studies consistently show that voters instantly like or dislike a candidate based on the most ridiculous impressions and animal intuitions (and so appearances do count). Only then do voters cherry pick among rational facts to bolster the irrational choices they already made, to perhaps trust that Nelson the Democrat won’t act like a Democrat or that Obama will suddenly be other than the inept manager he was in his first term. Voters deem themselves principled as they vote for a candidate’s cute butt.

    But of course, this applies to everyone except you and me. We are rational. Woof. Woof.

  33. Anonymous says:

    I am very excited for the Constipated Conservative’s fawning review of Pete Ricketts abysmal performance at the Pachyderm lunch yesterday. He could barely handle the softball questions Team Ricketts packed the room with. But Pete did get an endorsement from Bellevue Mayor Rita Sanders, you know the nice lady who stood with Brad Ashford last year and advocated for higher sales taxes and who has completely lost control of the Bellevue City Council. She’ll be a strong advocate.

  34. To #56 says:

    “But, but…vote for me! I have millions of dollars! I can’t answer any questions or define my position on any issue, but hey…Chicago Cubs and TD Ameritrade, baby!”

  35. Macdaddy says:

    Anon 8:52, Ricketts lost by 28 points. There’s plenty of Nebraskans to blame and they aren’t all conservative. It would be the height of foolishness for him to start chastising voters, even the embarrassed conservative ones.

    Entitlement, if Sasse felt entitled, he would have settled on his sister’s couch the day before the deadline. Instead he got a job here and moved back to Nebraska several years ago. Your criticism that he went to college out of state is pathetic. You sound like you’re from West Virginia or Arkansas or some other hillbilly state.

  36. Go Beau!!! says:

    Great turnout today in Omaha at Beau McCoy’s formal kickoff announcement for Governor! Beau wins hands down over the other candidates on character, integrity, honesty, hard work and strong conservative principles! Beau has my family’s votes and other Nebraskans statewide will also see the same on his 4 day statewide tour this week!

  37. @61 No Integrity says:

    Sorry to burst your overblown bubble. I am not a federal or state employee but do know integrity when it’s highly lacking. Integrity – Get Some.

  38. Anonymous says:

    Speaking from a professional whose business is how consumers and voters decide or choose? Comment #55 was spot on in accuracy as sad of a reality it is. Those inside the cesspool still don’t get it though the majority of the voters who don’t do.

  39. Macdaddy says:

    So true, nit-picker. For instance, on some of these posts, I would put an exclamation point there! And here! And probably over there!

  40. Anonymous says:

    I love the lectures on integrity from anonymous blog crawlers. If your family is endorsing Beau, and you’re no paid staff, why not use your name? I thought so.

  41. Plus Price says:

    Lincoln Journal Star reporting Senator Scott Price is resigning from the legislature yet no comment by him for the reason. Could we have another jumping into the governor’s race or for state auditor?

  42. Anonymous says:

    Watch for a cast of thousands to jump in the Auditor’s race. They know how Foley made a name for himself as the taxpayer’s watchdog and they want to build up their cred in the same way.

  43. To #55 says:

    “adept manager of policy” = Foley
    “political savior” = Ricketts
    “pack alpha” = Janssen

    P.S. Mangler of US Flag = Carlson

  44. @ Bobby "Sue" #78 says:

    Pathetic “bully” attempt to mock school choice. Your veiled argument eluding that a “public” school education is Ivy League compared to a home schooled education is completely baseless. I’m looking forward to your “bully” cameo in Dumb and Dumber part 2.

  45. Anonymous says:

    Don’t believe Senator Price is running for any office, if he was he would have told people. Senator McCoy will do just fine on the trail and win many voters over with his sincerity and understanding of the issues many Nebraskan’s believe important.

    Bottom line is term limits have created an artificial condition which is only destabilizing the political scene.

  46. fort street fury says:

    There’s no way that Price gets in for auditor. He doesn’t have the background and he knows it. Price goes private sector and works for a living. You heard it here first.

  47. Justaguess says:

    I’m just taking a guess but I bet Tony Fulton will jump in the State Auditors race soon. He is a strong Foley support, replace Foley in the state senate and is hungry for state wide elected office.

  48. So Kind says:

    @#88, such a nice sentiment! Glad to know you and “congressman forenberry” are not afraid of people who exercise their right to freedom of religion.

  49. Anonymous says:

    @Plus Price

    Are saying you are bigger than Senator Price, or are you his doppelgänger? Cause I’m pretty sure you aren’t referring to his weight.

  50. Anonymous says:

    If you put all the candidates for all the offices in a blender, along with a frog, how much will the overall quality of the result be improved by the frog? And is it worth wasting a perfectly good frog?

  51. Entertainment says:

    I heard the real reason that Senator Price is that he is eloping with Ricky Fulton. They allegedly met at a Postal Service conference trying on short shorts.

  52. GOD says:

    Since my name and Senator Price has been brought up how come he used the “must spend more time with the family excuse”?
    He has one daughter that lives out of state right?
    What a lame excuse. Maybe he got busted like Senator Loserbaugh did for a .234.
    What is the real reason? Anyway that stinks because Governor lame duck no chin will appoint some lackey again.
    And that person will have a step up like Loserbaugh did and also No Relation Fulton.
    That is Republican affirmative action for you.
    Check out my letter to the Lincoln Journal Star today on Taliban chief Mike Foley and his army of religious police.
    ricky

  53. Standard and Poor says:

    Sorry Omaha we have to charge you more to sell bonds because that new Mayor of yours has a personal vendetta on the fire department.
    Our staff here at Standard and Poor are mystified as to why Omaha is paying TWO fire chiefs at the same time.
    And to pay one chief off you want to pay out the most expensive pension settlement in Omaha’s history?
    Bring back that bald guy is what we say. At least he had a plan.
    S&P

  54. Ricky says:

    Oh and by the way that was me again as Standard and Poor.
    Looking forward to see how the Omaha World Herald, who endorsed Mean Jean, will treat this news.
    A cover up probably or maybe they will suggest Justin Wayne be put in charge of Omaha’s finances.

    ricky

  55. Fahlsen's lap dog says:

    Don’t be fooled by Fahlsen and Sasse. Mark Fahlsen was the same person that tried to muzzle the Conservative and Libertarian voices in Grand Island last summer. Ben Sasse is a DC hack who has spent less time in Nebraska in the last 20 years than Jim Suttle was mayor of Omaha. Sasse reminds me of Chuck Hagel and we all know how well that went.

  56. Anonymous says:

    Now that’s funny. Sen Price would bitch slap you if you even had the balls to say that to his face Ricky. The guy is giving up the office and all you can do is take cheap shots? Give it a break. Most politicians throw their family to the side to have the title. At least Sen Price, who claims family values, is walking the walk. Naw Ricky, or who ever you are, you are just an Internet wanna be. But feel free to drive your carcass down to Bellevue and say that bs to his face, but ya better bring a step stool otherwise you will be addressing his belt buckle.

  57. Hesdeadjim says:

    @103
    Watch your mouth about Mark Fahleson. He is a good, decent man. I can’t speak for Dr. Sasse, though.
    Fahleson put a muzzle on the paulbots in GI bc they were making a spectacle all because they don’t understand order and majority rule.
    This may not be my grand dad’s Republican Party, but it sure as hell ain’t Scott Petersen’s.

  58. To Hesdeadjim says:

    I voted for the Romney slate. Still I was not happy with the way Fahlsen treated other republicans as the enemy. I see lots of Chuck Hagel in Ben Sasse

  59. Midland Grad says:

    I keep hearing Ben Sasse is raising money for his Senate bid. Isn’t Midland paying him $250,000 a year to raise money for the University? Ethics anyone?

  60. Interested Observer says:

    Do you apply that same standard to all candidates for office? Even those who already hold elective office, with several more years to go to complete their current terms?

  61. Sasse Event on a friday night??? says:

    Looks like Kay Orr has decided to go back to being irrelevant by supporting a candidate who is leaving Fremont for the third time in two months while campaigning for a STATE WIDE office. Mean while the other candidates dont have full time jobs and have actually seen Chimney Rock in person in their lives and not just a picture on their website

  62. Anonymous says:

    So GH, is a university president equivalent to a walker or gum chewer? You’re so far removed from the real world you can’t see an obvious problem. If I tried holding a second job, I’d be fired in a second. But for some reason it’s okay for Republican candidates and officeholders to do this (see Treasurer Shane Osborn).

  63. So GH, is a university president equivalent to a walker or gum chewer? You’re so far removed from the real world you can’t see an obvious problem.

    Yeah, you’re right, what do I know about the job of keeping a university running?

  64. To 111 says:

    You are aware Shane Osborn is a FORMER Treasurer, right? I’m thinking you’re inability to hold a second job has little to do with the time constraints.

  65. Anonymous says:

    #115, how short is your memory? Just google Shane Osborn treasurer second job. The OWH took him to task for keeping his Omaha insurance brokerage job and also collecting $85k/year as state treasurer. Some of us can remember back to at least 2007.

  66. NotChuck says:

    Sasse has a 5-minute video that’s been picked up by Drudge (read national coverage) titled “Could they be more out of touch?”. It chastises Congresscritters for exempting themselves and their staffs from Obamacare, and calls them out to stop with the special interest exemptions and delays while leaving taxpayers on the hook for the rest of it. He supports defunding Obamacare, and making the health insurance system simpler and fairer (more egalitarian). From the way he speaks, he doesn’t sound like he grew up in Nebraska, but what he’s saying will surely strike a note with the populist wings of both parties.

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