Osborn still leads in #NESEN poll

by Street Sweeper on December 18, 2013

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Shane Osborn 501We received some recent polling stats.

A few caveats:
1) We can’t give you any of the crosstbas, etc.
2) It is a statewide poll but…

a) 700 respondents
b) 400 are 1st and 3rd District, 300 are 2nd District

3) We don’t know why they oversampled the 2nd District
4) So, you can take this with as many grains of salt as you can handle, but it may provide you with some broad strokes on the race right now.
5) If you’re not into it, please feel free to flip to another channel.

So, without further ado, here is what we’ve got:

Statewide:

Osborn 40.30%
Dinsdale 9.80%
Sasse 6.20%
McLeay 2.20%
Undecided 41.40%

 

Now here is the other, semi-strange, breakdown:

1st & 3rd District:

Osborn 41.00%
Dinsdale 8.00%
Sasse 6.80%
McLeay 1.60%
Undecided 42.60%

 

2nd District:

Osborn 39.40%
Dinsdale 12.30%
Sasse 5.50%
McLeay 3.10%
Undecided 39.80%

 

Why are they broken down that way?
Well, we’ll assume it was strategery of maybe just wanting to use those numbers to give one their best view.
And we would add that these polling numbers did not necessarily come from one of the Senate candidates.

We would just note that…

  • Significant domination by Osborn.
  • Interesting that Dinsdale continues to poll better than Sasse — even though Sasse continues to win the earned media battle.
  • All of these numbers are prior to much of any paid media.
  • Those Undecideds are still VERY high. Reminds us of the 2012 GOP Senate Primary. But, right now, it looks like they’d ALL have to break towards one candidate in order to take down Osborn’s lead.

But of course the key that is “right now”.
Lots and lots can change.

And again, if you want to dismiss this as “unscientific”, have at it.

***

Both Senators Mike Johanns and Deb Fischer voted against the Ryan-Murray budget plan — which eventually passed with the support of 9 GOP Senators. Deb Fischer noted on The Facebook:

Today I voted against advancing the Ryan-Murray budget agreement and will oppose the Senate’s final vote on the plan later today. I’m deeply troubled by proposed cuts in retired pay and survivor benefits for our military men and women, as well as cuts to payments that current retirees were promised. I was also disappointed this agreement delays nearly half of actual spending cuts until 2022 and 2023. I was elected to cut wasteful spending now, not to kick the can down the road and push the responsibility on to our children and grandchildren.

Shane Osborn as well as Sid Dinsdale announced their opposition early on.
We haven’t seen any statements from any of the other candidates.

***

Some interesting thoughts from Stu Rothenberg in Roll Call:

“…in Nebraska, former Midland University President Ben Sasse has consolidated support from Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund. But former state Treasurer Shane Osborn is obviously not an incumbent nor such an entrenched establishment figure that defeating him doesn’t exactly send a message. On the other hand, a Sasse loss would say more about the supposed influence of outside groups.”

***

We see that many of you are just procrastinating about your procrastination when it comes to your Christmas shopping.
Well fine.

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{ 67 comments }

1 Question December 18, 2013 at 5:09 PM

Did Amazon pay for the poll?

2 Street Sweeper December 18, 2013 at 5:11 PM

That’s an excellent question, and I would answer by saying that you can get excellent deals on Amazon.com, along with FREE 2-day delivery on Amazon Prime.
-Ed.

3 Interested Observer December 18, 2013 at 5:45 PM

Good answer!

4 Macdaddy December 18, 2013 at 5:48 PM

I wonder how many respondents thought Shane Osborn was related to TO. Name recognition has it’s early poll perks.

5 Interested Observer December 18, 2013 at 6:21 PM

Who flipped the coin at the start of the game between the Cornhuskers and Notre Dame on Sept. 8, 2001? I know because I was there, although I was kinda bummed when he told me a couple months ago that he didn’t actually parachute onto the field like I thought he had.

6 Anonymous December 18, 2013 at 6:31 PM

I saw that!
It was Queen Elizabeth.

7 To MacDaddy December 18, 2013 at 6:41 PM

Hey Mac, Shane has actually held a statewide office. I don’t think voters believe he is related to Dr. Tom. If I remember correctly he beat his primary opponent 2-1 when he ran for State Treasurer. I think the voter know who Shane is.

Now the interesting point this is the 4th poll that has Sasse in single digits. 6 months of listening, campaigning and hanging out in DC has not moved the numbers at all for him.

8 Demon Sheep December 18, 2013 at 9:21 PM

I was driving home from work in Lincoln yesterday and while listening KLIN I heard the great Dr. Sasse scream “Go Seminoles!!!” during an interview. Go Seminoles???? The guy is clueless.

9 Anonymous December 18, 2013 at 9:37 PM

This poll is not news. Nobody has done anything to try to move the polls in any direction — positive or negative. All that has been done to-date is jockey for money, etc. Get back to me after the first round of ads and first debate — then it will be a good poll. Otherwise, this is just a marker — which the Osborn folks have already done twice, hence the no new news.

10 To Demon Sheep December 18, 2013 at 9:41 PM

I hear the same program. The host chastised Sasse. The guy is so East Coast its not funny.

11 Sid supporter December 18, 2013 at 9:57 PM

Have you seen Sid’s new commercial? It is awesome. He is going to keep climbing in the polls. “You are what drives us,… Sid Dillon.” We are what drives this man, he truly cares about Nebraskans and will serve with integrity in Washington. Sid Dillon for U.S. Senate!

12 Anonymous December 18, 2013 at 10:02 PM

Macdaddy, I don’t believe anyone would think that Shane Osborn is related to Tom Osborne, since they spell their last names differently. It could be that he was related to the late Brian T. Osborn though.

13 Realistic December 18, 2013 at 10:22 PM

Come on, no one is confusing the man with his relatives or potential relatives. Face it, he just has huge name identity from his ill-fated mission years ago and his heroic aerobatics, combined with four years of state wide office. Stop speculating or making up stupid associations.

14 Boo December 18, 2013 at 10:25 PM

Bart Mcleay just sounds like the name of a bad guy in an old western. “Bad Bart and the boys are ridin in to town, etc…” He should drop out now and take Ben Sasse with him.

15 Question December 18, 2013 at 10:28 PM

“in Nebraska, former Midland University President Ben Sasse”

Is Ben Sasse no longer the University President? Did I miss something? Was he fired/secretly let go?

16 @ post number 9 December 18, 2013 at 10:30 PM

I suppose billboards in Omaha don’t count as ads?

17 Patriot December 18, 2013 at 11:01 PM

I am not voting for any bankers or attorneys. Haven’t these people screwed up our country enough? When will we stop being ruled by greedy tyrants. Wake up my fellow citizens. Throw off your overlords!

18 Macdaddy December 19, 2013 at 8:44 AM

Uh, you guys realize this poll was probably conducted by phone and over the phone Osborn and Osborne sound a lot alike. When was the last time Shane ran for office? 2006 which is forever and a day ago. I agree with #9. This poll was basically name recognition. Osborn shouldn’t think he can coast to a win in either the primary or the general.

19 The 1950's are calling December 19, 2013 at 9:41 AM

Its good to see that Sasse is carrying on the legacy of a Thone/Virgina Smith style campaigns. First the bus now billboards? Whats next? A whistle stop tour by train? Think you can get a ad on one of those fancy talking picture machines? If I were you I would place a ad during the Army-Navy game, way more Nebraskans will be watching that then those crummy Nebraska Bugeaters getting beat down by Georgia

20 To MacDaddy December 19, 2013 at 9:43 AM

I don’t think Shane thinks he can coast to a win. Have you seen his travel schedule? Ben Sasse on the other hand believes he is entitled to the Senate seat. No wonder why people dislike him

21 To Demon Sheep December 19, 2013 at 9:55 AM

I heard it too. Sounds to me like Sasse was just saying he was cheering against the SEC in the BCS game — which means he would like to see Florida State win. I agree with Sasse. It’s time to knock the SEC down a notch or two! I think the majority of Husker fans would agree.

Is Demon Sheep cheering for another SEC National Championship?

22 To The 1950's are calling December 19, 2013 at 10:01 AM

The Army-Navy game was LAST week.
Remind me to not hire you as my media buyer.
(And Go Huskers!)

23 To To The 1950's are calling December 19, 2013 at 10:38 AM

Im glad to see that you get humor (that was sarcastic) (like my post) the point was (for those of you who don’t get sarcasm) that the Bus is a joke and billboards are a waste of money, (ask Brad Ashford) and that if you are going to make a media buy why would you do it during anything besides a Husker game? (the Army-Navy game was a big game back in the 50′s a la the tittle of my post and also alluded to by the fact that I referred to the Huskers as the Bugeaters and therefore more people would have watched that game then the Husker game but the times have changed)

24 Anonymous December 19, 2013 at 11:39 AM

This definitely looks good for Osborn at the moment. But I would be much more interested to see some polling results after a debate or two where the candidates get their views a little more exposure on a broader scale…

25 Wow December 19, 2013 at 12:31 PM

I just heard over the telegraph that Tom Carlson was just endorsed by 3 of the 4 Tops.

26 No Movement December 19, 2013 at 1:57 PM

Looks like the same polls done in September and November. I guess the endorsement war didn’t do much.

27 Anonymous December 19, 2013 at 4:03 PM

Comment #25: The humor, if that is what it is meant to be, is lost to mean and nasty which is probably why good people don’t run when the peanut gallery is comprised of a-holes and what Bo called the ref.

28 Ricky December 19, 2013 at 5:05 PM

Just read the wikipedia on Ben Sasse. He started working for Midland College (that troubled institution) in 2009, so it is not like he moved back to Ne for the 2014 Senate race, although maybe.
And he has a huge amount of money; probably a lot of that will be donated by the secret (thanks SCOTUS for Citizens United) conservative organizations. So Sasse will flood the airwaves with ads paid for by unknown people who love the Tea Party. I say Nebraska sends a message to those groups and avoid Sasse like the plague.
Then I read Robyn Tysver’s story on how Ken Stinson gave 2 grand to Sasse AND Osborn AND McCleay. That Stinson guy is really starting to tick me off. He invented MECA, and has the Omaha City council in his back pocket and made them appoint his business partner another white guy Noodle to the MECA board.
And Tysver’s story mentions that Michael Yanney gave 2 grand to McCleay and Sasse. Yanney ticks me off quite a bit as well. He is the guy that went behind everybody’s back and twisted the arms of the Douglas County board and the City Council and Mello and Norquist and Surprise! the cigarette tax is raised in Omaha and UNMC has a vanity project cancer center they don’t need.
Those guys tick me off as much as Super Regent Hawks, whose money and muscle keeps BO in power in Lincoln.
Any Republican with a bunch of money who throws it around to influence events really ticks me off can’t stand those people.

Ricky

29 Interested Observer December 19, 2013 at 6:13 PM

How do you feel about any Democrat “with a bunch of money who throws it around to influence events”?

30 dick holland December 19, 2013 at 7:32 PM

You rang?

31 Ricky December 19, 2013 at 9:12 PM

At least Warren doesn’t tell the Omaha City Council what to do, and he does give a little (by his standards) to political candidates. (Buffett gave a grand to “Up and coming Democrat” (don’t make me laugh) Justin Wayne’s opponent in the re-do of the Omaha Public Schools board race), but Warren doesn’t put his name on buildings like Stinson at Ak Sar Ben and Warren doesn’t try to remake Omaha in his image like Stinson does.
When the baseball Royals moved to Sarpy with the tacit approval of Buffett, I chalk that up to Warren’s misguided love of the minor league team he did try to keep in Omaha back when they were broke. But other than that Buffett has kept out of trying to tell Omaha what to do. The vacant T D Ameritrade Park and the lack of development of North Downtown I put on Stinson’s back because of his control of MECA.
As far as Dick Holland goes, I have never met him but he uses his fortune for the power of good, as a progressive should be doing.

ricky from omaha

32 The Gov December 19, 2013 at 9:25 PM

Giving money to Jane Kleeb should be a capital offense.

33 #IStandWithRicky December 20, 2013 at 9:57 AM

Ricky has every right to continue to say stupid things. He also has the right to wear his blue mail man daisy dukes

34 Macdaddy December 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM

Ricky, if you don’t think Warren meddles in Omaha (especially in MUD), then I have a foot bridge to nowhere over the Missouri to sell you. For you, very low price. Very special. Just today only!

35 Gerard Harbison December 21, 2013 at 7:21 AM

I think it’s time we formed a group to pressure websites not to air Ricky’s repugnant views. We could call it CLAAD (Conservative Libertarian Alliance Against Discrimination). Ricky has said Dick Holland is a hero for bankrolling leftist moonbats like Kleeb, while he can’t stand conservatives who do similar. This is clearly the sort of discrimination and intolerance we can’t possibly tolerate.

Say no to h8ers, Sweeper, or we’ll, um, boycott, or something!

36 Street Sweeper December 21, 2013 at 10:28 AM

RWP,

Based on the number of you who have (or haven’t) signed up for Amazon Prime after my request, I’d say you’re staging a massive, massive boycott already.

(And here’s the deal: If you need to make a last minute Amazon purchase, you have until Sunday to still use Amazon Prime and get FREE 2-day shipping. If you’re just signing up for Amazon Prime for the heck of it, then wait til after Christmas where there’s a much better bonus deal for me — if you would.)

Just say “howdy” to Ricky when you see him at the mall in his Duck Dynasty gear.

SS

37 Anonymous December 21, 2013 at 12:01 PM

That’s funny

38 Ricky December 21, 2013 at 12:36 PM

I doubt Mr Street Sweeper will ban me from L Street because I bet I am one of the few who have answered his call to buy something through clicking on the Amazon links here on this blog.
And, yes my solar powered Christma… oops I mean Holiday Lights are working swell.
Shipped through China I assume or somewhere far away, one of the instructions that came with the shipment says “Don’t strike the product, so as not to cause irreversible damage.”
And the lights will “Especially, it will create a warm and romantic holiday atmosphere to be used for Christmas tree”.
That is “if it is charged over 8 hours by the enough sunlight”.

Ricky

39 Ricky December 21, 2013 at 12:41 PM

I can’t believe L Street readers are happy with Ken Stinson and Howard Hawks running the city of Omaha and the State of Nebraska. Does anybody out there really want to hear my pet peeve about this guys?
STAND against the forces of tyranny I say!
(Does anybody know if Ken Stinson reads Leavenworth Street? I need a job. Oops. I know Mean Jean the Mayor reads this she told me so once.)

ricky

40 To Ricky December 21, 2013 at 3:11 PM

Would you prefer having Suttle running the city with the cast of the Birdcage? Could you imagine how hysterical Nathan Lane would get during police and fire negotiations?

41 Gerard Harbison December 21, 2013 at 4:22 PM

Sorry, Sweeper, it’s another sad boycott tale. I was boycotting Amazon for some reason or other that I forget, and they took away all the iBooks I had previously bought through them, so now I’m boycotting them because of that.

It could well be the whole boycott thang has kinda gotten away from us all. But since it’s one of the few things the Irish invented, I’m loath to give it up totally. 90% of the time, though, the things I want to boycott are things I never buy anyway. For example, A&E. I mean, even if I had cable, who the hell watches A&E?

Anyway, Rickster, just a joke, man. We all love you here. In fact, we’re all really Democrats, but we pretend to be Republicans because we so enjoy it when you try to convince us.

42 WOW December 21, 2013 at 5:08 PM

You can tell Gerard is an athiest. He doesn’t even know the difference between Christmas and April Fools day.

43 Gerard Harbison December 21, 2013 at 6:28 PM

Oh good. And excuse to ath-splain to you Godly folks why WOW @ 5:08 is, in a strange way, exactly right.

Most Christians who know a little about their faith know that Christ almost certainly wasn’t born in December. Historical and biblical evidence indicates he was born in the spring, most likely April or May. And Christmas wasn’t until very recently a major Christian feast; Easter and its sequelae were far more important. Many people feel they still are. Obviously you wouldn’t want to celebrate Christ’s birth right when you were celebrating his resurrection and ascension and the descent of the Holy Ghost, so, since it wasn’t a big deal anyway, they took a Roman feast, Saturnalia, and coopted it for Christmas.

But as it happens, Saturnalia really was the Roman April Fools Day, except it was celebrated at the Winter Solstice. Elaborate pranks were played, license was given for all sorts of foolish behavior, masters pretended to be slaves and slaves to be masters, and so on. All good fun.

So, in fact, over the years, Christmas and April Fools were switched. We should really be celebrating Christmas in April, and April Fools Day at Christmas time. All of this is orthodox and not at all heretical, just not widely preached.

Here endeth, as we atheists say, the lesson.

44 Gaius Gracchus December 21, 2013 at 6:37 PM

Re/Gerard’s atheism, I’ll take a good atheist over a bad Christian every time.

45 Gerard Harbison December 21, 2013 at 7:43 PM

Io Saturnalia, Gaius!

46 Anonymous December 22, 2013 at 5:59 PM

75% of all Americans use the phone while sitting on the toilet.

That must impact political polling.

47 Gerard Harbison December 23, 2013 at 9:45 AM

Actually, I’m replying to this comment sitting on the toilet. TMI?

The NSA supposedly can remotely activate your iPad camera. This is my way of dealing with anyone who tries that on me.

48 Gerard Harbison December 23, 2013 at 9:50 AM

I’m thinking the rumored David Domina campaign will be comedy gold.

Domina wants to be House Democratic Whip

Domina lashes Terry on budget vote.

…and so on.

49 Tonic & Tonic December 23, 2013 at 11:19 AM

Happy Festivus for the rest of us!

50 Anonymous December 23, 2013 at 11:30 AM

In the beginning there was BTO. Now there’s Gerard. At least BTO made sense.

51 Gerard Harbison December 24, 2013 at 8:42 PM

AC@11:30…just because you don’t get it, doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense. Ask your mommy. She’s the lady who dresses in black leather and entertains all those gentlemen friends.

52 Interested Observer December 25, 2013 at 5:59 AM

Merry Christmas

53 The Lord December 25, 2013 at 1:10 PM

Today we celebrate my gift to the electorate, Dan Frei. His coming was foretold by the Prophet Peterson. Merry Freimas!

54 To The Lord December 25, 2013 at 3:29 PM

Prophet or Minion of Satan?

55 New Poll Out December 26, 2013 at 10:10 AM

Apparently the highly coveted Spanish American War veterans are favoring Tom Carlson’s candidacy with a 3 to 1 margin over any other candidates. After hearing the news Carlson lit up a fat Cuban to celebrate.

56 Anonymous December 26, 2013 at 11:30 AM

Comment #51: They all laughed, but one.

57 Bob Loblaw December 26, 2013 at 4:24 PM

Robin Tyvser just tweted that Col. Tom Brewer is going to run against Adrian Smith in the GOP primary. This is GREAT news. Adrian has done next to nothing in his time in Washington. He has never impressed me with his leadership or knowledge on issues. He is boring to listen to speak, is not a dynamic leader at all, and seem to be content to be a backbencher his whole career.

Competition in the primary is good for everyone. It sounds like it could be a busy next few months in all the GOP races. Sweeper will be burning the midnight oil covering all the races.

58 Anonymous December 26, 2013 at 5:37 PM

Considering there hasn’t been a new post in over a week, I’d see Sweeper needs more oil and other.

59 Macdaddy December 26, 2013 at 9:17 PM

I almost forgot. Happy Kwanzaa!

60 SCC Member December 26, 2013 at 9:55 PM

Col. Brewer’s candidacy is nothing more than a power play by Shane Osborn. The two have been travelling the state together as of late. Shane wants to be the next Chuck Hagel, controlling the Nebraska GOP. My fellow SCC members need to quickly put an end to this nonsense by endorsing our Congressman Adrian Smith at our next SCC meeting. Sorry Shane–you should probably get elected first before you start trying to build your kingdom.

61 Anonymous December 26, 2013 at 10:07 PM

What’s the difference between Chuck Hagel and Shane Osborn? At least Chuck Hagel was born in Nebraska.

62 Another SCC Member December 26, 2013 at 10:47 PM

Shane is not running anybody against Adrian. The Sasse camp must be getting desperate. Sucks being 30 points down.

63 To Another SCC Member December 26, 2013 at 11:32 PM

If the Sasse camp is slinging mud at Shane it must mean they are covering up something bad at Midland.

64 3rd District Voter December 27, 2013 at 12:12 AM

Adrian is a dud. We’d be better served by a rock. I’ll support Brewer

65 Another 3rd District Voter January 2, 2014 at 7:15 PM

I will second that opinion that Adrian is a dud. Worthless as teats on a boar, as we say out here. I’ll be voting for Brewer, and I’m a Democrat! I’ll change my registration in order to do so.

66 Tommie Frazier January 6, 2014 at 12:43 PM

Sweeper, here’s how I took the “Outsider” stuff:
Sasse has never run for public office before, he’s not running around trying to collect the endorsement of every public official in the state, he’s not part of the club. Contrast that with Osborn who is scurrying around the state saying, “I AM INEVITABLE–LOOK AT MY POLLING NUMBERS” (ask Jon Bruning how that worked out last time), announcing the endorsements of every public official he can, and generally acting as much like an entitled frontrunner as he possibly can.

By the way, it’s worth noting that Sasse has raised more money in Nebraska than Osborn has, and has way more donors.

67 Anonymous January 6, 2014 at 6:30 PM

It’s funny that you guys mention Shane Osborn being confused with Tom Osbourne. I was reading something on the Red State that confused the two. It is ironic too because Dr. Tom endorsed Sid Dinsdale, I think.

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