#NESEN & #NEGOV polls!

nebraska-license-plate-tilts-right 01Quick polls from Conservative Intel:

Nebraska U.S. Senate:

Shane Osborn: 30.44%
Ben Sasse: 29.03%
Sid Dinsdale: 13.10%
Bart McLeay: 4.25%
Undecided: 23.19%

 

Nebraska Governor:

Jon Bruning: 34.73%
Pete Ricketts: 16.18%
Mike Foley: 14.18%
Charlie Janssen: 5.64%
Tom Carlson: 5.27%
Beau McCoy: 4.73%
Bryan Slone: 0.91%
Undecided: 18.36%

***

Some thoughts:

  • We’ve heard Bruning’s numbers are actually higher than that
  • Some suggest, believe it or not, that even with those numbers Bruning will have a tough go of it
  • If you go to the link, you’ll see that Osborn’s approval is at 50%, but Sasse’s is only 30%. Yet they are neck and neck polling. This would indicate that Osborn’s support is very soft, and his lead may be more of a factor of name ID.
  • FWIW, Conservative Intel is David Freddoso’s deal, who recently wrote a positive Sasse piece. Though that doesn’t necessarily mean that the poll is weighted one way or another.

33 comments

  1. I guess this settles the debate about whether Sasse’s local advertising has been effective.

    Re Steve Forbes; when he was running for President he (as they all do) wrote to me asking for a donation. I replied that given he’s a billionaire and I’m tragically a long way from being a billionaire, shouldn’t he be sending ME money to vote for HIM?

    He never replied. Rude git.

  2. To: Gerard Harbison says:

    I wonder the same thing about Ricketts. How can a billionaire ask for a regular farmer in 3rd district for a campaign donation with a straight face?

  3. Answer says:

    I don’t help a candidate based on their need, I help them based on my ability and want to help that particular candidate.

  4. It’s interesting to watch the “mechanics” (for want of a better term) of campaigning evolve.

    Five years ago I got stuff in the mail on a daily basis, sometimes 3 or 4 mailings per day, and hardly anything that I would call “hard” campaigning via email, Facebook, etc. In 2012 the direct mail dropped off a bit, and the internet stuff escalated slightly. This year, at least so far, I get about 1 campaign mailing per week but my digital mailbox is bursting at the seams; my poor old spam filter is about tuckered out, and digital “money-bombs” appear to be the method of preference for fund-raising.

    I know its early, but it begins to appear that direct mail campaigning may be akin to the dinosaurs. Can neighborhood canvassing and phone banks be far behind?

    TV political ads, sadly, still grow bloom on my screen like a fungus on steroids.

  5. Anonymous says:

    How Smashing..Baby..Groovy……Ricketts, NE’s own DR. EVIL, “Hmmmmmm………my next diabolical scheme to defeat Bruning so that I will finally rule NE…….I must seize another ONE MILLION DOLLARS!” Hey St. Sweeper that would be a clever future separated at birth photo post!

  6. DC Insider Math says:

    Sasse has a net approval rating of 15% yet gets 29% of the vote share. We are expected to believe that 14% of the population who either doesn’t know him or like him is voting for him?

  7. Anonymous says:

    Both of these gov and senate polls are generally accurate. Any campaign for gov and senate that is doing internal calling right now would have similar results.

  8. Uh, no they aren't accurate -- says:

    The Senate one makes no sense if you look at the favorables and unfavorables. Anyone who buys this probably owns a lot of swamp land. Thanks for the laugh though.

  9. itk says:

    The poll is not worth the paper its written on. Seems one of Sasse’s Senior Advisors has a financial stake in the polling company. Also, David Freddoso worked for National Review who is frothing at the mouth with the idea that Ben Sasse is something he’s not.

  10. Macdaddy says:

    You might want to wait for the crosstabs. One thing that’s fishy is that 21% of the respondents weren’t sure how they felt about Bruning.

  11. Not Robynn Tysver says:

    Hey guys, this is just the kind of poll we like. Remember the poll we ran last year showing Bob Kerrey closing in very closely on Deb Fischer? Yeah, that’s the kind of poll we like at the OWH. Who really cares about accuracy?

  12. Omaha Politico says:

    No Congressional District results???? The 3rd District is where a big chunk of the votes are picked up. This poll seems fishy.

  13. Sasse's script -- says:

    So ma’am if you knew that Ben Sasse is the most handsome, well-educated candidate in the GOP race and that his opponents Sid Dinsdale, Shane Osborn and Bart McLeay are all members of the Communist party and that only Ben Sasse is smart enough to figure out that it takes 51 votes in the Senate, 238 votes in the House and control of the White House to repeal Obamacare, then who would you vote for in the primary?

  14. BO Pelini's Recruiting Class says:

    OMG how the mighty have fallen.
    I lay this at the feet of Super Regent Howard Hawks and former rising star businessman David Sokol who (allegedly) bought out the contracts of former Nebraska AD Steve Pederson and the Great Bill Callahan.
    To install the bored and entitled Tom Osborne as Husker Athletic Director.
    Now Nebraska cringes every time Pelini shows his ugly face on the television, which thankfully is rare since he hates the press and charges people to hear his lofty thoughts.
    Vote NO on Hawks re-election to the Regent board and NO on LB 1018 in discussion tomorrow in the Ne Legislature.

    Ricky from River City

  15. @ ITK says:

    Here in Fremont, we know the real Ben Sasse. At every turn, he’s tried to appear to be something when he’s really something else. Why should this new “impartial” poll be any different?

    Sounds like Sasse has some explaining to do. Again. (Not that he ever answers anything without shouting, “ObamaCare!”) So who are these advisors who own the company? Sounds like Sen. Sassy and his boys made a mistake. (You know it’s going bad when you’re “faking” polls.

  16. Senator Bruning says:

    When people start shouting “Bogus polls!” “Fake Poll!” you know their in meltdown mode. Maybe Sasse is not within 1. But if you think with all the national media and money raised by Sasse it won’t translate to rise in his poll numbers in Nebraska, you’re completely insane. BTW, how many frontrunners have ever won a Republican primary in Nebraska? If you don’t like Sasse, you best jump on one of the other 2 candidates in this race.

  17. @meltdown mode says:

    I think “Meltdown Mode” is more like that strange email sass’s DC based campaign manager sent out attacking the Navy Seals as going negative against him. (Thank you L st for pointing this out!)

    Smelled of desperation – kind of like how this ‘poll’ was done. Doesn’t pass the smell test.

  18. Fort Street Fury says:

    Yes, we’re all a bunch of data scientists now aren’t we?

    Please everybody, tell me more about your bountiful knowledge of statistics.

  19. Hesdeadjim says:

    Using the word “crosstabs” makes me an expert and I know stuff! Pay no attention to my complete lack of formal education in mathematics and writing non-leading survey questions.

  20. Taught Well says:

    Hesdeadjim, we have been taught well. We know a crap poll when we see one. The Omaha World-Hearld is a great teacher when it comes to crap polls, and we are no longer so easily fooled.

  21. Macdaddy says:

    So of the very conservative/moderately conservative, 50% of people don’t have an opinion of Sasse yet he picks up 30% of the vote. I don’t buy this poll. Donors beware.

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