To start things off, Nebraska Governor candidate Bryan Slone has a new 30 second version of his intro piece up on the interwebs.
See it here:
Slone starts airing this the first of his television commercials, Friday, in a statewide cable buy.
With his current status in the Gov polling, Slone obviously needs to introduce himself to voters and spend some money doing so. If the green-eyeshade types want him in the McMansion next year, they better continue to pony up and push those numbers. It will be interesting to see where he sits in a month or so.
And we wouldn’t feature this as a stand-alone SAB, but Slone has just a leeetle bit of a thin Chris Christie thing going on there.
Not a good or a bad thing. Just caught our attention.
We saw the recent analysis by the OWH regarding the money raised in the U.S. Senate race and it got us asking some questions. When is a million dollars NOT a million dollars?
Answer: When you’re not allowed to spend it.
You see, the OWH listed the Cash on Hand amounts for the U.S. Senate candidates, as filed on their FEC reports. It’s a clear line to be filled out on the form. But another line, that is not tabulated, is whether the contribution is for the Primary or General Election.
In other words, Torvak Jacobschmidt can give the “Joe Nebraska for Senate, Inc.” campaign a total of $5,200 ($10,400 per couple). But only $2,600 of that can be used by Joe in the Primary. The other $2,600 can only be used in the General Election. If Joe doesn’t make it to the General, he has to give the other $2,600 back to Torvak.
So, that means one has to fish through those reports and see how much was given to a candidate for the Primary and how much for the General. We now have that info, and here is what we present to you:
FEC Cash on Hand (COH): $1,002,453
Actual Primary COH: $590,353
FEC COH: $582,335
Actual Primary COH: $463,180
Cash on hand: $471,313
Actual Primary COH: $459,158
FEC COH: $193,754
Actual Primary COH: $154,254
(*this is a back-of-the-napkin tabulation)
Now the number filled in the the FEC for isn’t for nothin’. Having raised X amount of money shows a certain extent of support and can show what a candidate is capable of in the General Election, etc. The only thing is, many believe that the whomever is winner of this GOP Primary, they will go into the General with VERY likely path to victory.
So it is important to compare apples to apples.
To say that the Sasse camp has about 70% more COH than Osborn or Dinsdale is much different than the reality of having about 27% more. Of course a hundred thirty grand is still a hundred thirty grand. But it’s not four hundred grand.
For some reason you aren’t getting this type of analysis in the daily papers.
We have heard complaints from some about the numbers in the Senate poll that was put out yesterday by Conservative Intel — a group that one could argue is favorable to Ben Sasse. But here’s the deal: If Osborn, or any of the other campaigns, really believe that those numbers are way off, or distorted for some reason, they will a) put out a release saying so, and/or b) have their surrogates put out their own poll saying so.
The crosstabs (which you can find here) are interesting in that the breakdown is not by Congressional District, but by Omaha or Lincoln/Hastings/Kearney TV market. Hmm. However, if the only plan is to have the Minions head out to the comments section and trash the “bogus poll”, then odds are the poll isn’t that far off.
And considering how much attention the Osborn camp has been paying to Sasse — and Sasse to Osborn — the idea that the race is close is not that surprising.
But here is the other thing: There is still a BIG chunk of Undecideds out there, with lots more TV to come.
We expect to see more polling.
Shane Osborn was interviewed on FoxNews the other day (and hey, we wouldn’t call that hair color very “blonde” there Fox. Watch it…). See it here.
Nothing too unusual on the Osborn front — again him trying to get the interviewer past the Chinese incident and onto other things Senate. Nice, brief job of Osborn carrying himself.
ICYMI, Don Stenberg will NOT be running for Attorney General, as some speculation was out there — some encouraged by Stenberg himself. He will instead be running for re-election as State Treasurer.
In the mean time, as we noted the other day, Lincoln attorney Doug Peterson has announced his intention to run for AG — with the assumption that Jon Bruning will be in for Gov.