New polls in #NEGOV & #NESEN

Scotts Bluff Nat Mon

**UPDATE**
We are now told that this Legacy poll, apparently wielded by one of the Governor campaigns at last night’s debate, is THREE WEEKS OLD.

In campaign time that was EONS ago.

Governor your opinions accordingly.

**MORE UPDATE**

The Legacy page has now been updated and says:

A recent poll conducted April 17-18…

***

New poll up by “The Legacy Foundation” for Nebraska statewide races:

Governor

Ricketts 26.3%
Bruning 17.8%
Foley 13.2%
McCoy 9.8%
Carlson 4.6%
Slone 4%
Undecided 23.7%

Still lots of Undecideds to put someone over the top.

Senate

Osborn 31.2%
Sasse 30.9%
Dinsdale 12.4%
McLeay 2.2%
Undecided 23.3%

A tie at the top.

But, FWIW, check out the title on this website URL:

http://legacyaction.us/support-ben-sasse-senate/polling/

They also note:

The Legacy Foundation Action Fund is supporting Ben Sasse for U.S. Senate. He‘ll bring conservative Nebraska values to Washington.

Legacy says, about the poll:

The poll surveyed 502 likely Republican voters across Nebraska.
It has a MoE +/- 4.37%

Here is a summary of the polls we have so far.
(Please let us know if we’ve missed one.)

Updated 2014 Polling

And for comparison’s sake…
2012 Nebraska U.S.Senate Primary Polling:

2012 NESEN polling

78 comments

  1. Drew says:

    I think these polls are biased toward the urban vote. Sasse and Bruning will do better than showing. Osborn is in serious trouble.

  2. Drew to 2 says:

    But only by point 3 with over 20 percent undecided. Considering the first poll had Osborn at 40 percent, he has lost ground poll after poll.

  3. Nope not accurate says:

    This poll is old data. Insiders know Ricketts is sinking and Bruning is rising. And the ground game isnt close. Bruning’s is deep and wide and paying dividends.

  4. To Drew says:

    You are an idiot and a Sasse suck-up. Mike Foley schooled Ben and his Ex-gop chairman on their smears of Shane’s record. I’m not voting for Hagel revisited like you are.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Clearly this is was a pro sasse poll. It’s anyone’s race for the senate seat and I’m voting for Sid…the only true Nebraskan running. He has lived here his entire life, built a business and can take the values of Nebraska to Washington. Easy decision for me.

  6. No one more surprised than Ricketts says:

    That poll surprised no one more than the Ricketts camp. Their numbers show the race headed in the wrong direction. That is why the paniced press conferences on Tuesday to try and stop the bleeding.

    They know these numbers are bogus. Count on it.

  7. Hey Bruning Bots says:

    Really, are you Bruning Bots really that damn stupid to think this isn’t horrible news for your sinking campaign? Bruning is about ready to go under for the last time. The truth has been out on him for two years and only the Bruning bots are stupid enough to think people would forget or it could be covered up by lying about his opponents.

  8. To No one more surprised than Ricketts says:

    Um wasn’t it bruning who was up 34% to 16% in Feb. or is the bruning camp going to distort the truth again…..

  9. Regency says:

    This poll isn’t good for any of the NEGOV candidates. Bruning is way down. Foley hasn’t moved at all. Ricketts is under 30 and those that are going to vote for him will likely have decided already. All the money on McCoy and he’s still in single digits. This shows one thing – the race is on.

  10. Frequent Voter says:

    Ricketts has all the points that money can buy in this poll, but will they convert to votes in the end? Lots of distrust of Pete’s lack of experience in the 3rd.

  11. This poll is old says:

    Nice try team ricketts. You’re well aware your guy is sinking, hence the press conference whining about neg ads. Why do you think Bruning was in such a good mood at the debate last night? Think maybe he knows this poll is old news, and that he’s rising and Pete is sinking? Why didn’t he attack? Maybe there’s no reason to kick a guy that’s already down. Why on earth would he ask a softball question of Bryan Slone other than he knows Pete is fading and Slone is far enough back as not to be a threat? This race is heading Bruning’s way and everyone knows it.

  12. ItsOnlyPolitics says:

    Before we can argue what polls may mean, we need to come to that argument with common sense.

    We have bloggers here who say the poll’s “numbers show (candidate X) headed in the wrong direction” and simultaneously say “They know these numbers are bogus.”

    Pick one. Either a poll is bogus or it is valid. It is irrational to say, in the same breath, that a poll is invalid and yet that invalid poll proves this or that candidate is winning or losing.

    Easter is done and your favorite candidate didn’t rise as the Almighty. We are hiring guys to manage government. That’s all. Think like a responsible voter and not a fawning lover. Nebraska has 49 other states trying to screw us out of limited resources. Marry an idiot and you suffer that idiot. Hire a manager and you just might improve your lot.

  13. Already Voted says:

    Mike Foley is the only one in the governor’s race who has produced any real results—-government and bureaucracy-related. Pick between a non-motivating, non-leader in Ricketts, a sophist who likes to talk in Bruning, or someone who has actually done something in Foley. My tax statement votes Foley.

  14. It's becoming clear says:

    that voting for Sid or Bart in the primary is a wasted vote. Space me the Fischer lectures. At this point she had climbed into second. Even if Sid decided to throw a couple of million into the race now it’s too late. The good air time is bought up already.

    The Governor’s race is volatile. Either Bruning or Ricketts could win and Foley and McCoy aren’t quite dead yet.

  15. These polls is basically lukewarm water for all the camps in the Governors race at this point:

    For Ricketts: You really don’t want to be painted as a front runner up 9 points with this much time left. This is when the non affiliated Bruning Ads stop and everything but the kitchen sink gets thrown at you by two separate million $$ campaigns.

    For Bruning: Being in second is not your forte. Everyone has an opinion on you across the state, weather it be good or bad. Something that is also alarming is the similarities between McCoy and Bruning supporters, he could have taken a large chunk of that 34% you had earlier.

    For Foley: With no money and no outside groups willing to help you it looks grim. You are not going to pull a Deb Fischer, you don’t have her 3rd district support and the big outside players who will bring you late cash have all been taken up by candidates in this race and also the US Senate. Another thing not going for you is your supporters distaste for Bruning, they want to see him lose more than they want to see you win.

    For McCoy: Millions, Millions, and Millions yet you are still at 9%. There has to be a reason for that? It’s the messaging of your campaign, people look at you as an extension of Heinemann and the more we debate how we need more tax relief, more money for roads, more jobs, etc the more they think we need a new administration.

    For Carlson: You are just a poor mans version of Mike Foley, with the exception of water as your “abortion” issue.

    For Slone: People like you, but you have entered into the civil war of Nebraska Republican Politics: Bruning vs Ricketts. In order to win you need some supporters from both sides to come from you, but both sides see a vote for you as essentially voting for their enemy.

  16. To Sweeper says:

    Are there really 23% undecided or are those 23% Clifton Johnson supporters. There is a rumor that George Washington is back and he is more pissed than a southwest passenger sitting next to Kathy Campbell.

  17. Regency says:

    If the poll was done 3 weeks ago, those aren’t accurate numbers for anyone especially Slone who has made major movements in the last three weeks.

  18. Dream sweeper says:

    “The poll surveyed 502 likely Republican voters across Nebraska on April 17-18. It has a MoE +/- 4.37%”

    Check it out.

  19. No one more surprised than Ricketts says:

    I stand corrected. I guess the Ricketts team probably wasn’t surprised by the dated Legacy poll. The Ricketts family are funders to the organization.

    We hear that the poll numbers have been shifted dramatically since the Ricketts family poll was conducted. This explains their panicked press conference and their need to release the poll well after it was conducted. A week or two or three in campaign season is a lifetime.

  20. Anonymous says:

    So Bruning is even farther behind?

    The first poll shows Bruning up by 18 over Ricketts. The second poll, 7 weeks later, shows Ricketts up by 9 over Bruning.

    If you push the 7 week trend 3 more weeks, Bruning is today down by 16.7.

  21. Anonymous says:

    If Bruning is really down, he’s stuck. Had he been high road all along and suffered like a saint, he could now swing back hard and appear justified. But as others here have said, Bruning signed too many of his own attack ads to play the role of saint. So Bruning now must continue to go negative, which normally lowers the attacker more than the attacked. That means Ricketts can sculpt the tone of the final two weeks. It is a niche Bruning carved for himself.

  22. Buck Turgidson says:

    Ricketts does not go on TV with “I’m not funding attacks and don’t support amnesty” if Bruning’s ads aren’t working.

    Ricketts does not call a press conference to complain about negative attacks (on the same day he’s endorsed by Ted Cruz) if Bruning’s ads aren’t working.

    Ricketts does not release an old poll in the middle of a debate if Bruning’s ads aren’t working.

    Ricketts is trying to show momentum. Bruning actually has it.

  23. To Buck says:

    Meanwhile, Mike Foley stands on his record of experience. No outside money raising questions about his campaign. Foley will quietly, but surely be in the lead on election day.

  24. to the above says:

    How much money would it take for you to admit that Foley is hopeless?

    Really? If you’re being completely honest with yourself?

  25. NebraskANN says:

    I’m guessing that the secretive “Legacy Foundation” is made up of the relatives of Ben Sasse. Nobody had ever heard of the Legacy Foundation, its website is a cypher, and Sasse is one of the very few candidates it supports. It’s the extended Sasse family looking after its own “legacy.”

  26. Bob Loblaw says:

    Is Foley really out of it? I see more of his yard signs in Lincoln than all the other candidates combined. Not that that means a whole lot, but it does show some base of support. Not saying he’ll win, but I think he’ll do better than most think.

  27. The Fraud known as Ben Sasse says:

    Ben Sasse now attacks Shane for voting where he was stationed at????? Ben Sasse has been a registered voter about the same amount of time Doug McDermott has lived here. How many states has Ben been registered to vote in?

  28. To 40 says:

    Grow up. Team Shane threw the first barb, and it’s merely been back and forth since. If a candidate is going to attack an opponent, he/she better have thick enough skin to be attacked as well. But this is what makes politics pathetic…the leaders are no longer running on their own merit. I’m sure Team Sid is grinning ear to ear…

  29. Hey Bruning Bots says:

    Once again you show your stupidity and desperation. Bruning drops from 34-17% Ricketts jump from 16 to 26% and Ricketts is the the one in trouble? By all means keep up the delusion. At the rate he’s going, he will be in single digits by election day.

  30. The Fraud known as Shane Osborn says:

    Documents show he intended to stay in Florida permanently. Who is the carpet bagger now?

  31. Anonymous says:

    What part of he DIDN’T stay in Florida and he DIDN’T go to South Dakota after he got OUT of the military do you not understand?
    Just how desperate is Sasse now? This is the best he can come up with? Shane “thought” about being in another state after he served his country…but DIDN’T?
    Pathetic and insulting.

  32. Anon to 46 says:

    Uh, here is what a lot of people will understand. Osborn is running a crappy campaign from hell. Apparently exploited people to support him with cheap speeches. Not heard to say when a candidate starts making up stuff.

  33. Other Anon to 46 says:

    Osborn says in ad, the only time he lived out of Nebraska was when he served his country. Well first off, he was born in South Dakota and secondly he clear expressed intentions to live in Florida. Yeah, keep selling the manure. Might get some plants to grow.

  34. @@@@@@ says:

    From the looks of the World Herald, it looks like Osborn declared Florida residency to avoid Nebraska income tax. Florida has no income tax.

  35. Florida also gives you a homestead exemption on property tax if you declare an intention to live there permanently. I suspect he registered to vote there because that’s a major factor in getting qualified for a homestead exemption.

    I don’t blame him. Only a fool would pay Nebraska income and property tax if he could possibly avoid it.

  36. Dundee says:

    I imagine that Osborn was willing to renounce his allegiance to Nebraska and become a Floridian so he could escape Nebraska state income taxes in the tax-free Sunshine state. On exit, South Dakota might have looked like a similarly attractive place to land if state income taxes were the only concern.

    If Sasse moved here in June 2009, when he purchased a vacation lake house, did he pay Nebraska income taxes as a partial year resident? Or perhaps he was claiming to be a resident of tax-free Texas until sometime in 2010. In which states, and when, has Sasse claimed residency?

  37. one vote at a time says:

    peculiar how a group in texas, a group in washington dc, and a group in chicago is deciding who the governor of nebraska should be…

    Foley is the man!!

  38. Anonymous says:

    Good Lord people — Sasse and Osborn are both losers! Vote for either Dinsdale or McLeay. How can anyone even think of voting for Sasse or Osborn? They’re both morons who think they are owed this Senate seat for whatever reason. What nonsense.

  39. Stick a fork in the Keystone XL Pipeline says:

    It warms my heart to see Jane from Hastings and the rag tag bunch of farmers and ranchers beat the pants off of the conservatives like Lee Terry and huge corporations like TransCanada. To say nothing of big shot GOP members Mitch McConnell and John Bohner and everybody else like that.
    And the reason is Bold Nebraska and the Nebraskans in the path of the pipeline are right.
    Nobody has ever found a way to get around the fact that the good Cornhuskers out there will never give up their land for the pipeline, no matter how many times Lee Terry says it’s safe.
    The Ne GOP bungled LB1161, and AG Bruning and Gov Heineman and the righty’s in the Legislature should own that.
    Mr Obama will never okay the pipeline, and even Canada is now accepting that fact.
    Face it; Nebraska won and TransCanada lost.

    ricky from omaha

  40. Tonic & Tonic says:

    It would be ludicrous to keep Nebraska resistancy and pay Nebraska income tax when one does not live in Nebraska. See we pay these taxes in return for services like roads, medicaid, education, snow removal, police… You get the point. When one is not reaping those benefits in any way because one lives in a different state, one should file for residence in the state where he or she does benefit from state provided services.

    This concept, boys and girls, and Ben, is what I call a “no brainer”.

  41. @@@@@@ to 53 says:

    Dinsdale is a fool and Bart is afraid of comic books. Osborn is better but is screwed up. Sasse, well, you decide. Attend his events and decide for yourself.

  42. Tonya says:

    I’m voting for Dinsdale…compare the candidates resumes and the choice becomes clear. Dinsdale has business acumen and leadership skills that dwarf the others. The man has lived in Nebraska his entire life while creating jobs and supporting communities throughout the entire state. Sid is a Nebraskan through and through, and there is no way he would be beholden to DC special interest groups.
    Come on people…let’s send someone to DC who truly understands our state!

  43. To Tonya says:

    Does it matter to you that Sid’s bank gave money to Ben Nelson AFTER he cast the deciding vote for Obamacare? Sid rewarded Nelson for his vote.

  44. Anonymous says:

    Latest posting from Sasse campaign shows they have added Ted Cruz to the North Platte/Sarah Palin rally line-up on Friday morning. Is Sarah no longer a big draw? They’ve been asking people to rsvp for a week now. Can they not fill an arena with Sarah Palin as the keynote? Secondly, Beau McCoy’s latest pledge in TV ad form to travel 100,000 miles to foreign countries to promote Nebraska products. Huh? Does that sound like a fiscal conservative? Think Joe Six-pack is sitting there going, “Yeah, travel on the State’s dime to all the countries you would like to see!” Who is McCoy’s media advisor? Is it May 13th yet?

  45. To all the idiots who can't read says:

    Osborn was stationed at the Navy base in Pensacola when he established residency there. He was — what? — 22 or 23. He was just out of college! When you establish residency some place it’s not pledging to live there until in death you do part. Rare to see this much stupidity on this site.

  46. LaughingOutLoud says:

    To Nope not Accurate….”Bruning’s support is deep and wide”–are you kidding us? He’s never had a ground game, ever, except for fake, made up names for County Chairs. Bruning will lose again because the only thing he knows how to do is slap up another TV ad…and that doesn’t win statewide elections in Nebraska.

  47. RE: 61 says:

    I haven’t seen the McCoy ad, I have no cable but it makes sense on your description. You may not know, or even care, but Agriculture is our largest industry and export. The Governor’s office is our ambassador and the catalyst for many trade agreements for Nebraska with other countries.

    That sounds like he understands one of his primary jobs. It’s understandable if you grew up and lived in Omaha all your life, but the farmer knows how important it is to create and sustain these trade relationships.

  48. @ 60 says:

    I see you’re just making stuff up, now…

    Completely false and ridiculous.

    Tonya, you’re spot on and I too will be voting for Sid Dinsdale. Incredibly more qualified than the two DC boys.

  49. #60 says:

    so Dinsdale was so powerful behind the scenes he was able to make sure Ben Nelson voted for Obamacare? Literally, one of the all-time stupidest posts I have ever read on the internet.

  50. Anon says:

    It would be nice if one of Sid or Bart dropped out and not only endorsed the other, but actively campaigned for him. Either one of those two is better than the guys leading this race right now.

  51. votewise says:

    I thought Osborn was kidding when he said Sasse was hammering him for being in the Navy. But Sasse really is resurrecting the old “he’s no Nebraskan” argument that we heard from civilian Republicans and Democrats about military veteran Democrat and Republican candidates who “weren’t in Nebraska” because they were in Vietnam.

    It suddenly makes sense why Osborn started out highlighting his combat flying.

    Who would have believed that under the relatively tiny non-deadly pressures of running for office, Ben Sasse –who volunteered to be part of nearly a half dozen bureaus in Washington DC, in complete safety, for over a half dozen years –Sasse who still today owns a house in DC—would now be bitching about residency issues because Osborn was flying Navy aircraft in Florida and Afghanistan?

    As if that wasn’t enough, Sasse says he doesn’t know his own uncle is funding attack ads for the nephew’s sake. The uncle is being a good uncle. It is nephew Sasse who is lying to voters.

    Sasse seems like a cloistered child who seeks empowerment. Smart kid. But he lies to get his way.

  52. Dinsdale Was a Ben Nelson supporter says:

    Dinsdale was a Ben Nelson supporter, which is more than enough reason not vote for him. He is iether gullible or will sell us out when push comes to shove just like Ben.

  53. @ 70 & 71 says:

    If you are referring to Pinnacle Bank giving money to certain organizations or candidates, you do realize that as one shareholder of many, you cannot dictate who the other shareholders want to give their money to, right?! OR do you not understand anything about the private sector or private business or even how to run a good business…that is my guess…and why whoever you are supporting should absolutely NOT get elected.

  54. Simeon says:

    If Sasse and Osborn are really tied in this race, I’m moving to Canada. That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard.

    Those polls are bogus, the times are changing–nobody answers their phones anymore, don’t you know CLARK?

  55. Chicken Hawk Sasse says:

    Hey Gerald, not only from a homestead exemption purpose. Did his wife hold a second job and it would complicate the family filing their taxes?? She would not have the same benefit of the HoR as Shane as she is a military spouse and would have been considered a resident of Florida.

    Just another empty charge from the puppet!!

  56. Anonymous says:

    To #64: I’m a corn-fed farm kid, grew up on a fairly large ag production/livestock feeding place. I do know about the importance of trade missions. Pretty sure that people who grew up in Omaha can also appreciate that agriculture is a major driver of our economy. My point was in McCoy’s ad/pledge, he’s making a big deal about traveling all over to do this. I still don’t think “travel” resonates well with the voter in a Republican Primary. Automatic connection: he’s ready to travel the world on the taxpayers’ dime albeit some of these trade missions have pretty good business support.

  57. Objectiver says:

    It’s not over ’til it’s over. races are decided in the last 14 days. polls are taken from a very small sample. McLeay will do well in the primary AND the general, and…beyond

  58. SarpyGOP says:

    would be nice if the others dropped out and supported Bart. it is his time. He has the skills to represent, and represent all, with skilled leadership, for a long period of time. It is Bart’s time.

  59. 5Star says:

    Osborn’s cracks are showing. Dinsdale has yet to show clear leadership. Sasse camp isn’t showing org skills. McLeay’s camp showing young energy. McLeay’s camp showing momentum in last weeks of race.

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