NEW #NEGOV Polling

Leavenworth St. has received a very complete snapshot of the current polling in the Nebraska Governor’s race.

The numbers we received are as follows:

Jon Bruning…..26%
Pete Ricketts….20%
Mike Foley………13%
Beau McCoy…….13%
Tom Carlson…….4%
Bryan Slone……..2%
Undecided………22%

The poll then asks the Undecideds who they would “lean” towards.
With the “leans” added in for each candidate, (or not added in if they still don’t lean) you get:

Jon Bruning…..28%
Pete Ricketts….21%
Mike Foley………15%
Beau McCoy…….14%
Tom Carlson…….4%
Bryan Slone……..2%
Undecided………16%

The poll queried 451 Likely Republican voters across Nebraska (CD-1 32%, CD-2 24%, CD-3 44%) over May 4th, 5th and 6th. The Margin of Error is 3.9%.

The poll was commissioned by the Jon Bruning for Governor campaign, and was done by the Wickers Group.

We have seen some of the crosstabs on this poll, and feel it is a very complete, unbiased poll a week out from Primary Election Day.

We would note a few things about the poll:

1) it was taken BEFORE the Heineman and Stothert endorsements of Bruning; and…
2) it was taken BEFORE the $200,000 60 second(!) TV ad buy attacking Bruning from USA Super PAC.
(We will let you take a wild guess who contributed directly to the USA Super PAC in 2012…)

So what we are saying is that, according to the poll, there are a solid 16% who remain undecided.
That number could in theory move toward ANY of the candidates

(Note, it is our understanding that the Senate race was NOT queried on this poll.)

Exciting stuff!

46 comments

  1. Dennard says:

    Always love the whole “a campaign put this out so it’s obviously bogus” line of attack. Campaigns don’t spend thousands of dollars on polling to give them wrong information, you dolts. If other campaigns have different information, they should release their own numbers and not continually blast out phony numbers from a phony front group.

  2. ricky says:

    News Flash! Jon Bruning says he leads in the polls.
    And that was before the lame duck governor and the one term mayor of Omaha endorsed.
    Where is the owh poll or the LJS independent poll?

  3. Who knows! says:

    Mike Foley won the OWH, and KHAS online polls after the first and third debate. Ricketts was supposedly ahead in all the paid polls over the past 2 weeks with Bruning second or third, and now Bruning has a huge lead?! That’s why I’m not sure what to think of all the polls.The only poll that matters is the one Nebraskan citizens take on Tuesday.

  4. What Dennard Said. says:

    Campaign pollsters that aren’t accurate don’t stay in business long. Their reputation — and by extension, their livelihood — is based on being accurate.

    That said, polling is not an exact science; you must make some educated guesses, such as what percentage of the vote will come from each congressional district, and how high turnout will be. Every campaign that’s polling right probably has different ballot numbers. The question is how different.

    Watch closely over the next 24 hours. If Bruning’s numbers are that off, it would behoove his opponents to release their own numbers to try to change the storyline that Bruning has the momentum.

  5. independent says:

    Independent polling showing one candidate ahead. Polling from another campaign showing themselves ahead.

    Who do you trust?

  6. To Who Knows! says:

    Mike Foley didn’t win anything. What you’re referring to are not polls. Anyone can sit at a computer for an hour and click the same button 100 times. Legitimate polling (and market research in general) is very advanced.

    Only 4 polls have been released in the Gov race: 2 by a third-party organization that is backing Sasse in the Senate race, an unnamed poll Leavenworth St. published yesterday, and Bruning’s poll today.

  7. LukeinNE says:

    It’s absurd that Gallup, Rasmussen, etc have ignored these races. That we’re in two very tight, very major primary races and are having to rely on campaigns’ internal polls is ridiculous.

  8. Tecumseh says:

    You know, that independent group funded by donors of Ricketts’ campaign that shows him with a lead.

  9. Pollster says:

    This is the only poll that anyone has seen that actually show the way the sample was weighted. It sounds like Sweeper has seen the cross tabs, making it the only poll that has been willing to share complete details.

    I can understand why the Bruning campaign doesn’t want to have the cross tabs shared. But if we know they are out there, it all seems very legit.

  10. Anonymous says:

    The Beatles sang it best…” $ cant buy you love…no no no…..”

    Not to mention anything that ticks off Ricky is a good thing:)

  11. Ricky is ticked off ... again says:

    Here is another thing that ticks me off: Lee Terry’s mailing says:

    “Congressman Terry voted against Obamacare and fought hard to repeal and replace the unconstitutional legislation and the trillions of new spending and debt.”

    This is so stupid in so many ways. For one thing the SCOTUS found the Affordable Care Act constitutional. Terry did not repeal or replace Obamacare and what is the meaning of the statement about trillions of dollars of new spending and debt? In the years Terry has been in Congress he has done nothing about anything.
    Like I said a million times the GOP think their primary voters are stupid if they try to sell them this baloney.

    ricky from omaha

  12. Listen to the money says:

    Who paid for the poll? Jordan of Bruning campaign or Jordan of Leavenworth street? Must be hard to keep the books straight over there. But keeping straight books has never really been their thing in Bruning world anyway.

  13. GOPinsider says:

    Poll to be released tonight (623 registered Republicans, 2nd CD):

    Dan Frei: 42%
    Lee Terry: 40%
    Undecided: 18%

  14. Tonic & Tonic says:

    If you’re being honest with yourself…
    You know this poll is accurate, everyone can hear your sobbing, and you don’t know anything about data so seeing how a poll was waited makes you question everything you’ve ever done.

  15. Fort Street Fury says:

    Not that it matters much, but I got a robocall from Tom Carlson the other night and he DID NOT state who paid for the call at the beginning as is required by the PSC.

  16. Anonymous says:

    Wait, was that poll done by the same guy who is either on Frei’s staff or volunteers a whole bunch for him?

  17. perspective says:

    Sweeper, do you read your own blog?

    A BRUNING poll queried 451 Likely Republican voters across Nebraska, conducted May 4th, 5th and 6th, with a MoE of 3.9%, showed Bruning 26, Ricketts 20.

    A SASSE poll surveyed 600 likely Republican voters across Nebraska, also conducted May 5-6, with an MoE of 4%, showed Ricketts 26, Bruning 21.

    BOTH POLLS WERE DONE ON THE SAME DAYS. One by Senate candidate Sasse who happens to show Ricketts with a substantial lead in the governor’s race. The other poll, paid by Bruning, shows the exact opposite on the same days. However, It is the Bruning poll that you feel in your wiggly bones must somehow be really correct.

    Good, Lord man. It is only an election. Have a little dignity.

  18. perspective at 7:26,
    The main difference between the two is that I got to actually look at crosstabs on the Bruning poll.
    The other was a weblink with next to nothing else.
    So there’s that.
    And thanks for reading.
    SS

  19. Parenting Advice for Ben Sasse says:

    Well looking at the Wikipedia on Ben Sasse that guy has got a mighty fine resume.
    OMG he graduated from Harvard and spent a year studying at Oxford.
    Plus, then he attended Yale and got a Masters and a PHD in Philosophy (Hmmm that is what I got my degree in). Gosh Sasse has got to be the smartest guy in the room always.
    Along the way Sasse got a Masters of Arts in Liberal Studies at St John’s College in Maryland. Damn all that liberal education and he uses it for the forces of Evil, the GOP.
    Anyway, one thing Mr Sasse flunked out on is parenting. As you can take parenting classes, really the only thing you can fall back on is experience. There are no real guidebooks on how to be a good parent.
    But I can assure you as a parent who raised two children to adulthood, using the kids to further your political ambition is NOT good parenting.
    Sasse strikes me as a guy that would say or do anything to get elected, and despite the out of state groups who try to tell us he is the best, I predict Nebraskans will not send Sasse to the Senate.

    Ricky From Omaha

  20. Drew says:

    I suspect the gov race will either be super close if Bruning wins, or an easy win for Ricketts. Bruning simply has way too high negatives. When the undecideds are more than double the amount of distance between Bruning and Ricketts, Bruning’s lead means nothing. The undecideds simply are not going to break in Bruning’s direction.

    Also, endorsements don’t carry much weight in this race when a candidate has high negatives so the ball really is up in the air on this race.

  21. Hey "perspective" says:

    That ludicrous poll that showed Ricketts up 5 also showed Sasse up 13. Not even Sasse people believe they’re up 13. That poll was about as silly as it gets.

  22. Anonymous says:

    Always enjoy when people like Drew or the Ricketts fanatics downplay or even criticize the endorsement of Governor Heineman as not meaning much, when the Ricketts campaign has spent the last month harassing us about endorsements from out of state political celebrities.

    Governor Heineman >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Governor Pence

  23. Drew to 33 says:

    Get real! The Gov is making this endorsement in the last week of the election when many thought he was favoring Sloan.

  24. F to the Governor says:

    The Guv had Beau McCoy supporting abolishing the income tax but than supported Bryan Slone but now comes out for Bruning? F the Guv! Vote for Ricketts! Make the Guv cry!

  25. Very (In) Complete says:

    For a sample of 451 to have a Margin of Error of 3.9% the universe population from which it was taken would have to be about 1,500 (one thousand five hundred) voters. Is that what the Bruning consultants are telling him turnout is going to be?

  26. Hesdeadjim says:

    There’s no downplaying the gov’s endorsement here. Also, Jean’s endorsement is nothing to ignore.

  27. To Drew @ 31 says:

    You must not have seen Pete Ricketts’ negatives. More proof you are a complete tool and have no clue what you are ever talking about. Keep those blinders on D.S.

  28. Anonymous says:

    If Bruning wins, it will be a victory for the teachers union, other public employee unions, lobbyists and country club Republicans.

  29. Stop Bruning says:

    The last post is correct, Bruning must be stopped. Any of the other candidates have good character and be trusted to govern on the promises they made as candidates. On the other hand Bruning will say and do anything for power and has questionable ethics. This is the guy that was a flaming liberal in college, writing columns for the daily Nebraskan trashing Ronald Reagan, endorsing Hillary care etc. This is a guy that voted for numerous tax increases in the legislature, This is a guy that exponentially increased his budget as attorney general. How much of the money was used just to get his pretty face on tv to prepare for future campaigns? Large sums were sent on making our Nebraska court system PC and user friendly for illegal alien criminals.
    Speaking of immigration, Bruning talks tough but besides turning the courts into bilingual bastions of PC, he endorsed Eric Holder to be attorney General. Holder is on the frontline refusing to enforce the current immigration laws and forcing states to disregard the law as well. Who was suing Arizona for trying to enforce the law and many others states trying to avoid voter fraud by passing voter id laws? That would Jon Bruning’s boy Eric Holder. Oh and Mr. Frat Boy tough on crime let Nikko Jenkins out of jail under his watch and after lying to everyone that he wasn’t going to run for governor decided to run ans went awol on using his enfluence to get the good time law reformed to keep Nikko in jail. OH, and in 12 years as attorney general Frat Boy failed to carry out justice by not enforcing the death penalty. If Texas and many other states can, then so can Nebraska with someone with the guts to lead rather than pander to special interests.

    If you consider yourself a conservative, a tea party conservative, a libertarian or an ethical moderate or liberal, you need turn out to vote on Tuesday for someone other than Jon Bruning. Ricketts is the one that look like he can stop Bruning so I am voting for him, but If you don’t like Ricketts vote for anyone but Bruning.

  30. Don't let Dem's steal Republican Nomination says:

    I was undecided in the Governor’s race until I got my mail today. First we had a disgusting ad from some left wing 3rd party group mocking Pete Ricketts with class warfare garbage. Then there were two from the teacher’s union endorsing Bruning. It is obvious the Bruning is the puppet for the teachers union and Pete Ricketts is the man they fear so I am voting for Ricketts. I’ve known Jon for years and didn’t think he will sell out Republicans like this, but it is painfully obvious that he will do the lefts bidding if elected. I for one am not going to have any part in Left wing Democrat groups choosing our candidate. The previous post was correct, Bruning is the last guy in self respecting Republican should be voting for.

  31. Anonymous says:

    Are the Sasse and Ricketts campaigns inter-locking? They seem to have the same celebrity endorsements and some of the same DC group endorsements. It’s like they mimic each other. Both have used Kay Orr at appearances but especially Ricketts. In fact, it’s beginning to look like he can’t have an event without her present. What is that all about? She has got to be one tired lady. Between Ricketts and Sasse they’ve had her running all over the State.

  32. Let's be real says:

    To 42 and 41 – are you both staffers for Ricketts?

    42 – if you’ve actually known Jon for years I have no question you’d vote for him – that is why what you say is untrue and highly suspect.

    41 – what a crazy crazy rant. I can’t imagine you believe anything you say. This sounds way too much like the ads that Ricketts’ dad paid for against Bruning in 2012 where they literally said “vote for anyone but Jon”

    Why do the Rickettses have such a hard on about Jon – is he too good looking, too smart, too good, or is it just that he won’t suck up to them. I’ve never seen someone try so hard to get elected before – Pete really wants this job. He’s paid for Cruz, Palin, Walker, Ryan to all endorse and its all to gloss over the fact that he is not qualified for the job.

    Let’s not demonize politicians for going for the next rung up the ladder – we need experienced people to try for the next level, and in my mind Bruning is the only one of the bunch who is qualified to lead. Not only is he qualified – he’ll do an AMAZING job! Let’s get out of the muck and weeds and think about who actually can lead the State – it’s a big job and important to all of us.

  33. Don't let Dem's steal Republican Nomination says:

    If any one is a campaign staffer, it must be “Lets Be Real.” Is that you Jordan? Who else would Call me a liar with no evidence? I am no staffer for any campaign. I first met Jon when he was at the University writing left wing rants for the daily Nebraskan attacking Ronald Reagan and loving Hillarycare. He seemed to have changed his ways and I supported him in all three runs for the Attorney General’s office and his first run for Senate, That said, I can no longer support him for his untrue class warfare attacks on Ricketts and his entanglement with the teachers unions. He has become a typical career politician seeking to use his office to enrich himself and protect the establishment.

  34. Bruning attacks but never refutes says:

    Interesting, I though Bruning lost the 2012 race because his record was exposed and Deb Fischer was a better alternative. The truth remains because Bruning has never refuted a single claim made by his critics. #43 might as well be Jon himself. Attacks the critic, but never rebut the allegations because they are true.

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