A new poll up from the Ben Sasse campaign (thanks for the numbers from Nebraska Watchdog).
See it here:
The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday by Strategic National of 400 likely GOP primary voters,
Margin of Error is 5%.
We really don’t know much about this polling firm other than what has been said about them in Michigan:
Saul Anuzis, a Republican national committeeman from Michigan who has locked horns with (John) Yob (head of Strategic National), said Yob is “extremely effective at guerrilla warfare. His company is the best manipulator of the process.”
Take from that what you will.
Another campaign insider immediately told us that the race is tighter than that — which if you compute for MOE or the Undecideds could make that the case.
From what we have heard, most think that Sasse is in the lead, but that the race is still close.
GOTV will matter.
The Washington Post’s The Fix reported that “Dinsdale is making the Tea Party nervous“.
And, as you have read, the “Tea Party” types are ALL IN on Ben Sasse in this race. If he loses, they are considered giant losers nationally — particularly after their candidates blew it in North Carolina.
So the Club For Growth has poured $200,000 into Nebraska with this spot:
(My, that’s a cynical tone from the narrator.)
Dinsdale immediately pounded back with a spot called, “Change Washington“.
See it here:
This is a good continuation on the “talking to the camera” spot, which as we’ve noted too many times, we like and find effective.
The Wall Street Journal wrote up this morning, “In Nebraska, Attack Ads Aren’t Welcome“, pointing to the Club for Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund, 60 Plus and Madison Project — all Washington, DC groups who have bombarded the airwaves with negatives ads in support of Ben Sasse.
Then Sasse came out with what the campaign says is their final ad, “Nebraska Proud“.
See it here:
In the campaign summary, you’ll note the line:
“Governor Kay Orr likes that Ben never ran a single negative ad.“
Except that U.S. Senator Mike Johanns would have something to say about that.
He told Nebraska Watchdog:
He doesn’t draw a distinction between campaigns and outside groups that “do the dirty work” for them – candidates who get a group’s endorsement and then benefit from the negative ads they buy.
“It’s all part and parcel of the same campaign,” he said. “At the end of the day, you’ve sought the endorsement.”
Johanns even went on to tell the Washington Examiner:
I just think they’re enormously discerning; they realize who’s been running the negative ads and that’s why I think Dinsdale is surging. He’s had clean hands in all of this.
And here’s the thing: Nebraskans aren’t idiots.
They know who is responsible for the ads.
At this point, nearly $2.8 MILLION in negative ads has been spent in the Senate race
, on behalf of ONE candidate.
Here is a short list of those who have hammered
Sasse’s opponents Nebraska candidates with negative ads:
- 60 Plus Assn
- Club for Growth
- Club for Growth Action
- Ensuring a Conservative Nebraska
- Freedom Pioneers Action Network
- Freedomworks for America
- Gun Owners of America
- Legacy Foundation Action Fund
- Madison Action Fund
- Senate Conservatives Fund
- Special Operations for America
- Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund
And on top of that, don’t forget the National Review, Breitbart.com and Red State, to name a few.
You know, but other than that, “not a single negative ad….”
And, yes, we know this sounds like we’re hammering Sasse.
We like Sasse. We think that if he, or Dinsdale, or Osborn, or McLeay gets the nomination, Nebraska would be well represented in the Senate.
But like in 2012, we aren’t crazy about the massive outside influence being flung into Nebraska, all because of a power-struggle at the top of the Republican Party.
Did you know that, according to U.S. News & World Report, whether or not Nebraskans elect Sasse will be a reflection on not just the Tea Party, but specifically on Texas Senator Ted Cruz?
That’s right Nebraskans. You wouldn’t just be electing Ben Sasse. You would be crowning Ted Cruz, in all his Hook-‘Em-Horns-ness.
And maybe you’re cool with that.
We just aren’t into what should be an election about who should represent Nebraska, turning into a proxy battle for the Power-Mongers in the U.S. Senate.
With that in mind, we will note the FactCheck.org story on Ben Sasse’s “important first step” speech.
Note that even the fuller context from the Fremont Tribune story — which only partially quotes and then paraphrases Sasse’s remarks — makes clear that Sasse was not calling the Affordable Car Act “an important first step” toward solving the country’s health care problem, but rather that it was an important first step in “thinking about” the problem of the uninsured.
Well, O.K. But that’s not what he said.
And the Sasse campaign’s defense was that he was speaking to a group of Democrats, which is why he used terms like “bill we passed” and “important first step”.
Much like Dinsdale’s contributions to Democrats and Osborn’s campaign emails, these are things that if the candidate could have seen into his political future, he wouldn’t have said or done.
Sasse has to take his lumps — yes he took money from pro-ObamaCare groups and at times hedged on his language with “important first step” and “I don’t plan to do is try to persuade you of either the demerits or merits of this bill.” But most voters are probably willing to take him at his word that he would still work against ObamaCare in Congress (and we don’t really need to hear that from his daughters).
And Dinsdale has to take his lumps : yes he donated to Democrats — 5% vs 95% to Republicans, and sure businesses often donate to both sides. But that doesn’t make it a good thing politically, and he will have to expect voters to weigh that.
And Osborn screwed up badly trying to defend himself with the Navy memo. Once he saw it wasn’t official, he should have pulled back on any distribution. And he did apologize for it. But Shane’s problem now is the drip-drip-drip of not only the Navy memo, but the economist thing and now the revelation of the old political emails while Treasurer. He has lost the trust of many voters, and now doesn’t have the cash to wage a defense and show his positives.
That’s too bad for Osborn, because his latest web-video is, frankly, inspiring:
See it here:
It’s too bad few will see it.
Not to be outdone, Bart McLeay had a new ad out a few days ago, called “Like Bart Said“.
See it here:
We are sure there will be more going on in the Gov’s race, so check back and we will do our best to update with a new post before Friday is over.