The main topics going ’round the national press, which is watching the race hawk-like, is that the latest poll available to anyone has Sasse up by 14% on Dinsdale. Credit at least to the folks like Rich Lowry at National Review, which has a vested interest in the race, for at least pointing out that the Sasse camp commissioned the poll.
Those who we talk to believe Sasse it up, but not by that much. They mainly point to the constant money being poured in for proof that he’s not up by double-digits. If you want to follow along on an hourly basis, go to this link at OpenSecrets.org where you can find the over FOUR MILLION DOLLARS being spent on this race by outside sources.
Nobody cuts that kind of cheese if they think it’s a slam dunk.
But you will also note that you haven’t heard any counter polls showing the other candidates ahead. So safe to bet Sasse has the lead right now.
Is it a solid lead?
Dinsdale has some ground he will have to make up to pass Sasse, and Osborn even more.
And with all the negatives, don’t discount the fact that there is a fourth, relatively unblemished, intelligent and qualified candidate who voters just may turn to in order to protest the other three.
That is not to say Bart McLeay can or will win. But votes to him could provide a serious spoiler effect to the other candidates, to the extent that things could get weird. Or they could just keep things they way they are, without much other movement.
8% to McLeay? 10%? More?
This race isn’t as volatile as the Governor’s race, but it still has potential for a late Tuesday night. “Potential” is of course no certainty, but it has been a strange enough race that we would not be surprised with any outcome.
(You know, except for a McLeay win.)
Ben Sasse today, when asked about his quotes being taken “out of context”, told KLIN, “We pray for people who do crap like that.”
(Does God still answer your prayers if you say “crap”.)
And then, with less than 24 hours before the polls open, there was a small crack in the conservative coalition surrounding Sasse.
Laura Ingraham had the Kansas Secretary of State, Kris Kobach on her radio show. Kobach is also currently of counsel with the Immigration Law Reform Institute, the legal arm of the Federation for American Immigration Reform. And he has endorsed Shane Osborn.
Hear it here:
The two of them talked about the NumbersUSA immigration survey, where that organization had given Shane Osborn the thumbs up, and essentially gave Sasse a thumbs down, based on non-responses from him. The Sasse camp responded to Nebraska Watchdog on this two weeks ago, and we don’t know whether they ever gave an update to NumbersUSA.
Kobach came after Sasse, and looks to have Ingraham with him:
KK: You have to say in very clear, explicit terms: I’ll reject any amnesty. I’ll reject any program that attempts to give legal status en masse to illegal aliens. And he doesn’t even come close to saying that. Whereas Osborn took the survey all the way through, and unfortunately, some Tea Party organizations, not necessarily the Tea Party people of Nebraska, but organizations, are pushing Sasse, and I’m afraid he’s gonna be a Chamber of Commerce, establishment Republican, which is so ironic because he’s holding himself out as a Tea Party person, but on immigration which is an issue very important to the Tea Party.
LI: It’s a litmus test for me. I don’t have a lot of litmus’ tests but that’s one of them.
KK: At this point we’re 24 hours away from learning who the next Republican primary winner is in Nebraska. At this point the Tea Party is what it is, it’s the conservative brand right now. I just hope people in Nebraska learn quickly that Sasse is probably pro-amnesty, all of the indicators are there. And you’ve got Osborn who’s a true conservative, and I just hope the word gets out.
LI: Hmm, Sasse is grass he says. Shane Osborn is the guy for Kris Kobach, Phyllis Schlafly, and I don’t think Phyllis Schlafly has been wrong about most political and cultural trends. She’s been pretty much right on every major issue from immigration to education to the family.
Well, take that FWIW.
Ingraham later took to the Twitter and compared Sasse to John McCain and Marco Rubio.
The most curious aspect, we find, is that Ingraham isn’t wearing the Club Jackets with NR, SCF, CFG and the boys.
A voter reported receiving an anonymous live call which said, “Rumor has it Sid Dinsdale is giving money to Ben Sasse to help him win.”
And who starts a call with, “Rumor has it“? What are we in, 1930’s Hollywood?
We will do our best to update with any breaking news.
But be forewarned that Election Days are often bereft of news until the numbers come out.
Except for yard-sign stealing.
There’s always yard-sign stealing.