New #NE02 Poll

Terry-Ashford 01A new poll is out from a Democrat polling firm, for Nebraska’s 2nd District race.
Here are the toplines:

Brad Ashford (D): 46%
Lee Terry (R): 41%
Steve Laird: 6%
Not sure: 7%

The Margin of Error on the poll, according to the pollster, is 5.1%

If you then want to take the poll at face value, that puts the race in a virtual dead heat.

However, a few notes about their survey of 365 Likely Voters.

Their sample was 33% Republican, 31% Democrat and 36% Independents.
Our understanding is that Independents will represent 16% of voters, at best.

Then their county breakdown went like this:
30% – Eastern Douglas County
53% – Western Douglas County
17% – Sarpy County

We find that to undersample the GOP stronghold in Sarpy County as well.

As noted by Roll Call, the poll “was conducted by DFM, a Minnesota-based polling firm that polled for North Dakota Democrats in 2012.

The poll of 365 Likely Voters was taken October 21-25.

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From what we hear from our sources, the race is still tight.

The latest we hear is that Terry’s numbers among women have jumped in the past few weeks.
We had heard, anecdotally, that the Terry camp has been focusing their message to women.

Considering all that’s in play, that’s as much info as we can cobble together these days.

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We will say that Terry’s Favorable/Unfavorable numbers, no matter the poll metrics, are not good.
They broke down 34/54.
Ashford’s were 40/34 (which frankly seemed a little high to us).

Senator Deb Fischer’s Fav/Unfav taken in this poll were surprising at 36/37.
We don’t know any particular reason her numbers would be that low, which also fuels our suspicions about this poll.

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We will leave it there for now.
Check back as we will likely have more to post, likely around noon.

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9 comments

  1. Nikko Terry & Ebola Ashford says:

    I wonder what’s the more reliable number – Terry’s unfavorable or Ashford’s favorable? Hard to say. My gut is Terry’s unfavorable; the only thing Ashford has going for him is he’s not Terry – hard to “favor” that.

  2. Ricky says:

    No wonder Mr Terry is acting so desperate. I don’t think the voters are being persuaded by the pathetic advertisements the GOP are producing for Terry.
    So long Terry!

    Ricky

  3. Lincoln voter says:

    I think the only reason Amanda McGill is supporting a minimum wage increase, i. s that she needs a raise at Target after losing her Unicameral gig

  4. DFMReserach says:

    I don’t normally comment on an analysis of my work, but I wanted to bring up two points to clarify to the readers. The survey weights that are mentioned in the post, are for the full 450 sample of the district (not the likely voter model of 365 respondents).

    The report shows that the ‘likely voter’ model party identification is 42% Republican, 35% Democrat and 23% Independent (this shows that Rs are more likely to vote than Ds). As for the geographic split in the district, again this is demographic data for the entire population of the district, not the ‘likely voter’ model (the likely voter model shows an increase in the Sarpy portion, and a decrease in the eastern part of Douglas County).

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