A new poll is out from a Democrat polling firm, for Nebraska’s 2nd District race.
Here are the toplines:
Brad Ashford (D): 46%
Lee Terry (R): 41%
Steve Laird: 6%
Not sure: 7%
The Margin of Error on the poll, according to the pollster, is 5.1%
If you then want to take the poll at face value, that puts the race in a virtual dead heat.
However, a few notes about their survey of 365 Likely Voters.
Their sample was 33% Republican, 31% Democrat and 36% Independents.
Our understanding is that Independents will represent 16% of voters, at best.
Then their county breakdown went like this:
30% – Eastern Douglas County
53% – Western Douglas County
17% – Sarpy County
We find that to undersample the GOP stronghold in Sarpy County as well.
As noted by Roll Call, the poll “was conducted by DFM, a Minnesota-based polling firm that polled for North Dakota Democrats in 2012.”
The poll of 365 Likely Voters was taken October 21-25.
From what we hear from our sources, the race is still tight.
The latest we hear is that Terry’s numbers among women have jumped in the past few weeks.
We had heard, anecdotally, that the Terry camp has been focusing their message to women.
Considering all that’s in play, that’s as much info as we can cobble together these days.
We will say that Terry’s Favorable/Unfavorable numbers, no matter the poll metrics, are not good.
They broke down 34/54.
Ashford’s were 40/34 (which frankly seemed a little high to us).
Senator Deb Fischer’s Fav/Unfav taken in this poll were surprising at 36/37.
We don’t know any particular reason her numbers would be that low, which also fuels our suspicions about this poll.
We will leave it there for now.
Check back as we will likely have more to post, likely around noon.
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