It all happens tonight.

That is, unless it snows early.

In which case, get off the roads so they can plow!

They’re saying the weather won’t be hitting until later, but you have to think that the “everyone but Trump” crowd is hoping for some snow, with the theory that Trump’s supporters are “soft”.

Then again, the Trumpians I saw in Council Bluffs were willing to stand out in the cold even after they closed the doors.

So here’s the deal: Make your predictions in the comments — and put a name (some sort of name) on it. You will be heckled / praised tomorrow accordingly.

And just to stir the pot I’ll say…Iowa is always weird, and seldom picks the winner…so…Cruz and Hillary.

(i.e. I don’t think Cruz will win the nomination and I don’t think Hillary will either. Dun, dun duuuunh!)


I like Mike

And Nebraska’s former Governor, Senator and U.S. Ag Secretary Mike Johanns weighed in as well.

He’s a Jeb Bush guy.

Which is sort of sticking his neck out there (to the extent anyone’s watching him).

The CW is certainly that Jeb is toast, so why bother? But there’s also a certain amount of loyalty for Johanns towards the Bush clan, so there ya go.


Rat race

And if you’re following Senator Ben Sasse’s Hawkeye Road Trip, you’ll have seen that The Donald finally got tired of Sasse’s Twitter snipes and went after him.

Trump Tweeted;

Sasse responded saying he took “gym rat” as a compliment.
But then he went a step farther:


I had to look this one up.

See, apparently Trump is VERY touchy about people criticizing the size of his hands and fingers. He has been accused of having small paws and stubby phalanges. And he has been known to go after people who point this out.

So on the one hand, many of the Buzzfeed types on the Twittersphere were cackling with delight that Sasse made that move — getting personal with Trump when HE gets personal.

On the other hand, are Twitter dick-jokes (ask any woman what the small-hands thing means) really the realm of a United States Senator?

Sasse has been receiving much well-deserved acclaim for preaching about conservative principles, especially in relation to Trump. But going down this road cheapens all that. I’d go so far as to say that in another day, an elder statesman would have summoned Sasse into his office and told him to knock it off.

Just because a Presidential candidate thinks its cool to tell you whether he wears boxers or briefs, doesn’t mean you should jump up and declare your underwear choice.

Sure Trump is mean and petty. But to a certain extent, he has earned the right to be what he wants. And plenty of people reject him just for that mean and petty streak. But Trump doesn’t apologize, because he has no one to apologize to…until he gets elected. Then he would owe those who elect him.

In that light, Sasse should keep in mind that people are reading his Tweets because the people of Nebraska put a “U.S. Senator” in front of his name (no matter which account he is Tweeting from).

And he has made his constituents proud by defining conservative values.

He should continue to make them proud by letting the radio jocks make the personal jokes.


Twitter is first with EVERYTHING

With the focus across the Muddy Mo, we can hold off to talk about the latest FEC numbers until tomorrow.
Stay tuned!

And follow @LeavenworthSt on the Twitter for updates through the evening!


  1. Anon says:

    I think it will be Trump-Rubio-Cruz in that order but very close to each other in the low 20’s, and the media will declare Rubio the “real” winner. I also think Paul will make low double digits based on his organization and he’ll be declared “still viable.”

  2. Sparkles says:

    Clinton 46
    Sanders 41

    Trump 31
    Cruz 21
    Rubio 17
    Carson 8
    Paul 8
    Christie 3
    Fiorina 3

    In NH, Kasich will finish a strong 2nd, at least 5 points head of a pack (Rubio, Cruz, Christie) who’ll be contending for 3rd.

  3. Scotty says:

    Cruz slips by Trump with a better ground game but the real story is how close Rubio is to beating them both.

    On the dem side Hillary barely defeats Sanders. Again, due to a better ground game. But the story tomorrow will be how Hillary was nearly defeated.

  4. Matt says:

    Dems: Sanders wins big.

    Reps: Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Paul, Carson, Christie, Bush, Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Gilmore.

  5. Spectator says:

    If voters employ “tipping point theory” then there is a very distinct chance that Rubio will bust out with a clear win and be the only candidate in the 30s. Now that everyone is acting as if there are only three candidates, there’s no need for the vote to be split 10 ways, and Trump and Cruz have harder ceilings.

    If not, then Rubio, Trump and Cruz tightly bunched in the 20s.

    Either way, Rubio comes out the frontrunner.

    On the D side, the winners are the lawyers who will be paid to figure out how to strong-arm a Biden nomination despite not being eligible to win any delegates under the rules.

  6. Pete says:

    I would like to go on record and say that as it becomes more and more apparent to the Democrat establishment that the coronation of Clinton will not go as planned, Joe Biden will jump in late and be the Democrat nominee.

    Rubio wins the nomination and is the next President of the United States.

  7. Caucus says:

    I wonder if Lou Ann Linehan is phone banking for her old boss and pal Hillary Clinton to get out the vote in Iowa. Maybe Brad Ashford is calling right next to her.

  8. Macdaddy says:

    Sadly, Trump will win and there’s no way for Sanders the Red and Hillary the Orange to both lose. Tomorrow will go down in history as one of those significant dates in the fall of America, much like the Battle of Midway or the Munich Agreement. It’s too easy to blame Iowans, but they are just first out of the gate in the rush towards insanity. America will not survive our next President, as things stand now.

    Sweeper, I absolutely agree with your points about Sasse. But then, how much class can you really expect from BenSasse?

  9. Lil Mac says:

    Looks like you had a keen analysis Sweeper.

    Kudos to Cruz. He had a great ground game in Iowa, where Ted now joins Santorum and Huckabee as Iowa winners, while Trump joins the likes of Reagan (who lost the Iowa GOP caucus twice).

    Considering that Trump had no grassroots organization to speak of but just tweeted his way, he had an okay showing in Iowa. Rubio however performed very well.

    As they move into NH where Trump leads and Cruz is low, Rubio is a rally point for GOP leaders who very much wish to rid themselves of the Trump hair-shirt and put on their regular Neocon silk kimonos. Rubio feels familiar to them. It will be interesting to see how Trump performs in a real primary. Again, bravo Ted. And goodbye Huckabee…

  10. Sparkles says:

    One overlooked loser in last night’s caucus, Iowa’s Governor, who in a rather extraordinary intervention in the Hawkeye Cauci, came out quite publicly against Cruz.

    Branstad bested by Ted.

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