Coming back over the bridge

This is what Democracy looks like (in C.B.)
This is what Democracy looks like (in C.B.)

Yes, I correctly predicted the Cruz win last night.

And, I had that strange tingly feeling on the back of my neck that Hillary Clinton’s coin-flip calling skills would be gold last night. Gold!

But I must call out reader and commenter Scotty McHenry who not only called it for Cruz (before the caucuses began), but pretty much nailed the whole evening:

Cruz slips by Trump with a better ground game but the real story is how close Rubio is to beating them both.

On the dem side Hillary barely defeats Sanders. Again, due to a better ground game. But the story tomorrow will be how Hillary was nearly defeated.

In other news, Scotty just advised a guy that he would kill his father and marry his mother…

So along with the Clinton campaign’s astounding “luck” at winning coin tosses, rock-paper-scissors and “the number that’s in my head”, there were other theatrics as well.

Someone from the Carson camp mentioned that the Dr. would be going to Florida before going to New Hampshire, and that turned into “Carson is quitting the race!”.  This was reportedly stated to caucus-goers in Johnson County, and was now infamously Tweeted by Rep. Steve King as well. (Sort of curious that all of this was done by the Cruz supporters…)

My guess is there is some sort of deniability by those who shouted this stuff — claiming they were only respouting what they heard. And the Carson folks didn’t help much with the “getting a change of clothes in Florida” thing either. (It wouldn’t have been that hard to say he was spending a half day in Florida before jetting up to New Hampshire.)

But it should at least put the Trump and Rubio folks on notice that the Cruzers will be going for the throat again and again and again.

So what next in New Hampshire?
Scotty’s prediction:

(Iowa) is Ted’s high point. Won’t get any better for him after this. Marco vs Trump.

One precinct's results
One precinct’s results

My speculation is a Trump win — maybe even a Rubio second — and then a brawl in South Carolina. And reportedly, Cruz is already concentrating on the Super Tuesday states in anticipation of a flat performance in the Granite and Palmetto states.

(And by the way, in the next dystopian movie, they should re-name all the states that way: “Palmetto”, “Granite”, “Hawkeye”, “Lone Star”, “Cornhusker”.

“Where are ya’ll headed to?”
“Big Sky, by way of Great Potatoes.”)

 

Have a Koch and a smile

Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse was heralded by many Twitterers for his work against Trump in the final weeks of the Iowa campaign.

No word whether Sasse would be off to New Hampshire to dive into the campaigning ’round Dixville Notch.

In the mean time, he was at the Koch Brothers retreat in Southern California, where the discussion is how much to spend in an anti-Trump campaign.

 

FEC what’s shaking

A little news in the FEC Report areas.

Don Bacon and Brad Ashford announced their numbers. Ashford was strong-enough with around $300K for the quarter.

Bacon? Meh…$40K.

Well, we probably can put that in the “it’s early” category, but not for THAT much longer. Coupled with the not-great recent poll, the Bacon camp will have to step things up to show that they can take on Ashford — let alone out-name-ID Chip Maxwell, who they better not look past.

Getting your butt kicked a little isn’t a bad thing for a campaign. It can tighten it up and set a little bit of a fire under it. But then people want to see some momentum as well.

And WHOMever makes it to the General will likely see a weird landscape in the autumn with the Presidential campaigns and the ballot initiatives.

In the mean time it’s doubtful anyone will be laurel sitting.

 

YOUR Bellevue Thuuuuuundersnow!

Enjoy the ThunderSnow!
(Again, my preferred name for a minor-league hockey team.)

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21 comments

  1. Macdaddy says:

    So, Trump is not inevitable. Thank you, Iowa. Rubio was probably most helped by Iowa and he’s set himself up well in South Carolina, which Trump will not win.

    Hillary has to be sweating Sanders, though. All it would take is for Sanders to go kiss Obama’s ring and Loretta Lynch will convene a grand jury. Sanders can keep to the high road and Hillary ends up wearing an orange jumpsuit, courtesy of Barack “You’re Likeable Enough, Hillary” Obama. The only thing is will it be enough to be a fellow traveler or will a billion dollar check from the Clinton Global Initiative and Crime Syndicate be enough to keep him on Team Nixon?

    • Sparkles says:

      Current Real Clear Politics average for South Carolina republican presidential primary:
      Trump 36
      Cruz 19.7
      Rubio 12.7
      CBS/YouGov has Trump at 40 in SC

      Iowa and NH are the ideal markets for Sanders’ message. Post-NH, Sanders has no path to victory. He’ll make Hillary work, but he’ll never win.

      HRC will never be indicted.

      Iowa is an anomaly.
      In an exit poll of of Iowa’s Republican caucus goers, 62% self identified as White, Evangelicals or Born Again Christians.

      For comparison, in May 12, 2015, Pew released a survey titled. ‘Changing U.S. Religious Landscapes’, that asked this very same question, of a representative sample of -all- Americans:
      “Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian, or not?”
      In response, about one-third of all American adults (35%) self-identified as evangelicals or born-again in 2014.

      (The 62% also explains Michelle Bachmann’s 2011 straw poll victory and IA’s two previous caucus winners, Huckabee and Santorum)

      • Macdaddy says:

        Hillary will be indicted just as soon as Obama wants her to be. Revenge is a dish best served cold and Obama hates the Clintons. But not so much that a very large check couldn’t change his mind. There’s a reason why the Clintons have spent years collecting over $2billion from corrupt governments in return for the State Department signing off on trade and weapons agreements.

  2. Go Away says:

    I see Chuck Hagel is coming back here to speak. Is he going to talk about his failure as Secretary of Defense in dealing with ISIS.

  3. Anonymous says:

    If you want an accurate opinion of your situation ask your group’s enemy. He has a better view of your group than you do from where you stand. He is not invested in any of your people in particular.

    Get Sparkles away from discussing Dems and we suddenly see dispassionate accurate figures and numbers about Republicans in SC, which outweigh MD saying Trump “will not” win SC. No rational assumption of possibility. Just an absolute “will not” which means feeling has replaced thinking.

    Sparkles was reasonable about SC poll numbers but then said Hillary will “never” be indicted.

    • Macdaddy says:

      You realize all the polls said Trump would win Iowa, right? Every last one and for months. Trump’s appeal depends mightily on him appearing invincible. He isn’t.

    • Sparkles says:

      Hillary will never be indicted – for the email ‘scandal’, or Benghazi-Benghazi, or White Water, or TravelGate. or Web Hubbell, or FileGate, or TrooperGate, or ChinaGate or trading in cattle futures, or any of the litany of B.S. ‘scandals’ the right wing media has invented over the decades. ‘Scandals’ for which right wing politicians have wasted countless millions in taxpayer dollars and countless thousands upon thousands of hours of legislative man hours investigating.

      All of this waste something for which a rational Republican should find great shame.

      Nevertheless, the adjective “never” was indeed improper.
      It’s possible Hillary could be indicted for a future action.
      For it’s certain that the maniacal Clinton-derangement-syndrome that grips the Republican base – like the Zika Virus, leading to the shrinking of the cranium and the dramatic impairment of normal brain functioning – will never abate.
      The colossal waste of taxpayer money and legislative time will never end.
      As long as someone by the name of Clinton remains in power, the imagined scandals and ensuing investigations will remain a cancer on the functioning of our government and will remain a detriment to implementation of common sense solutions addressing the challenges our country faces.

      Speaking of the challenges facing our nation –
      The newly knighted leader of the Republican House continues a reign of imbecilic waste and crass pandering to the very lowest of the GOP base:
      House Republicans, for the 62nd time, voted to Repeal ObamaCare – on f%^&ing Groundhog Day!

      And the GOP controlled Senate is just as maliciously malfeasant. After meeting with President Obama, Mitch McConnell went on the record yesterday, stating the Senate will do NOTHING this year.
      McConnell is determined to lead the Senate in taking up NO legislation of substance, ALL YEAR.

      For purely self-interest and political gain, the Congress YOU elect will choose dereliction over duty.
      Because, of course, there is not a single issue facing our nation that requires the attention of our elected leaders.
      And the right wing will APPLAUD this dereliction!!

      Because the world is at peace, the economy is soaring, we have no ailing veterans, our educational systems are optimally streamlined and cost-effective, our federal prisons are the epitome of thrift and order, our military is a shining beacon of function and frugality, threats of domestic terror have vanished, big banks and insurance companies have only your best interest at heart and our tax system and entitlement structures are perfectly in balance and on cruise control.

      So, I guess it makes perfect sense that the politicians YOU have elected and choose to pay $175,000 / year, plus the salaries of an avg staff of 34 per Senator, plus countless money in travel and an array of expenses, it makes perfects sense that these elected officials would simply choose to take the year off.
      And they can do so because they’re certain they can dupe YOU into standing and applauding their ‘principled’ stand.

      WTF!!

      • bynd says:

        Sparkles:

        So since McConnell is doing exactly what Harry Reid did, except Mitch is declaring it publically, you are pissed at McConnell because?

        Probably because McConnell, right, wrong or indifferent McConnell is transparent and Harry wasn’t?

        WTHs = wasn’t that Harry’s schitck?

  4. Anonymous says:

    Macdaddy at 9:25. How do you know the source of Trump’s appeal? On what it depends? Does he appeal to you? Are you a pollster? And have you forgotten that Reagan lost the Iowa primary twice?

    Yesterday, Feb 1, 2016 at 4:55 pm, YOU SAID ‘TRUMP WILL WIN”. But now, one day later, you are an expert on Trump.

    • Macdaddy says:

      I was relying on the polls. They were wrong. You continue to rely on them.

      Trump’s appeal is based on his attitude. I see the appeal of his ability to stand up for some principles I like. But it is obvious that his principles change like the weather and eventually sober heads will prevail. They did in Iowa.

  5. Peter Paul Bot says:

    NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  6. perspective says:

    Relax. The odds of your vote mattering are 1 in 130 million. You have better odds of giving birth to quadruplets, being a US billionaire, being killed by a lightning strike, or dying by drowning.

    The odds of you being struck by lightning while you are drowning are 1 in 183 million, just barely less likely than your vote actually mattering,

    Voting is our civic duty and we all have opinions, which like arseholes are unavoidable. But acting like an emotional arsehole over voting is avoidable. And us voicing our heated opinion in absolutes, is a form of public masturbation.

    We are just hiring temporary executive help. So quit acting like you are a cardinal voting for a new Pope.

  7. Anonymous says:

    Sasse’s unseemly interjection of himself into all things Presidential is very transparent. Apparently he only wishes he had become a U.S. Senator a cycle or two earlier so he could now be considered Veep material or better yet, running for President himself. Wonder how Deb Fischer is doing keeping him tamped down? From recent actions it appears he is only using a Nebraska Senate seat (and Nebraska voters) as a stepping stone to greater things.

  8. Peter Paul Bot says:

    I am sooo beside myself. Liberty died a little today. God help the Republic!!!! Dr Rand Paul was the Messiah…God help the Republic!

    There is only one solution. The DCRP needs to be destroyed.

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