Taking it for Granite

Chipper
HELLO! My name is…

OK prediction folks, place your Granite State bets!

To make things more interesting, not only do you have to give first, second and third, but you have to give percentages as well.

The bookies down at the barber shop (the ones who are known to take high school football bets) have Trump hitting 30%, and Rubio doing “well”. (That’s betting parlance.)

And then…Kasich, yeah?

Whither Jeb(!)?
And how does Cruz do? Does he go down in Iowa history with Presidents Huckabee and Santorum?

If you already gave a prediction in the previous post, do it again here.
And our last prognostication winner, Scotty McHenry, said — pre-debate:

(Iowa) is Ted’s high point. Won’t get any better for him after this. Marco vs Trump.

But now we would ask Scotty to get more specific or risk losing his Oracle of Leavenworth status.

Who will take his crown!?

The predictions here:

Trump: 27%
Kasich: 17%
Rubio:  14%

And no one drops out before South Carolina.

(Oh, and Larry David 55-45.)

 

Good visuals?

Brad Ashford announced his intention to try to walk the line between getting Democrat votes and pandering to Republican constituents. He did it over at Barrett’s Castle on Leavenworth St. (not affiliated with LeavenworthSt.com). Wonder what sort of deal Mary Barrett gave the campaign. (heh)

He prattled-on to KMTV about wanting to cut regulations some more, but didn’t note that he voted against the recent bill to do exactly that.

Don Bacon did note…

Nick Starling of KMTV then made personal visits to Chip Maxwell and Don Bacon to get their on-camera comments about Ashford. (And good for Nick to go the extra mile to get them on camera, as opposed to just a statement.)

Chip said cut the deficit, Don said more military expertise in Congress. Both good lines.

See the report here:

But were those the images that the GOP candidates wanted? Ashford was in a busy room that looked full-ish, and he had to speak loudly over the din of the party around him.

Both Maxwell and Bacon were shown at their announcements — with Kay Orr standing behind Bacon.

Then Chip was interviewed sitting on a living room chair, sporting a “Chip Maxwell for Congress” sticker. (One wonders if the family members have to put them on before sitting at the dinner table.) (Also Nick may have misspoke when he said “current Douglas County Commissioner”…)

Bacon was in front on a plant in a lobby. And he was given time to give a nice short career bio.

I’m not sure you can pass up those opportunities. But that being said, the visual for Ashford speaking at a loud gathering is a leg up on those speaking in an empty room.

Probably over-thinking it.
Maybe.

 

And the party-breakdown in the non-partisan body is…

Oh,and then there was the LJS’s Don Walton, who for some strange, unknown reason has to take a weekly dip into the George Norris Unicameral pool, and talk about how awesome it is that the Nebraska Legislature is “non-partisan”.

Ah…..
Feel that refreshing non-partisanship wash over you.
See, Don even says that Brad Ashford loves that the Legislature was non-partisan…

And then in the next story we will hear more about those non-partisan Democrats in the Uni who vote in a unified Bloc on every issue.

But hooray because non-partisan!

 

Yeah, well…potholes!

Anyone notice all the Facebook posts and joyous Tweets about how good the snow removal was recently. All the Facebookies who posted pictures of their clean streets?

For that matter, none of the news stations had video of all of the successful plane landings at Eppley either.

But the point is that sometimes these things DO get overblown, and all of the Angryfacebook posters should feel free to adjust their future venom levels.

 

Your wish is Granite

Polls close in New Hampshire at 6pm Central.
As do the allowed predictions for The Granite State.
(Or, as we simply will call it in our upcoming dystopian future movie: “Granite”.)
(“How long you lived in Granite now?” “Well, ever since the militias got massacred in Empire and the water dried up in Keystone…”)

Follow Leavenworth St. on the Twitter because you can then get all of our exciting movie updates and the updates on tonight’s Granite excitement!

52 comments

  1. Oracle says:

    Sure, there is partisanship in the NE legislature. But at least we don’t have the hyper-partisanship that occurs when party bosses run the show. Prevents the insanity you have in Kansas as Nebraska Repubs can make up their own minds and not join the crazy train.

  2. Sparkles says:

    Were it to run, I think the plant that’s behind Don Bacon would likely win the NE02 GOP primary.

    Unfortunately, I’m not certain Ashford has what it takes to beat it in the General.

  3. Sparkles says:

    Trump 29
    Kasich 19
    Rubio 12
    Bush 12

    Sanders 55
    Clinton 45

    Carson pulls less than 2% but pledges, in a bewildered and somewhat confused manner, to forge ahead.
    Fiorina snarls for the cameras and hurls invectives.
    Ted Cruz plots his next immoral voter suppression trick.
    Chris Christie brushes off the news that NJ’s credit rating has just been downgraded, for the 10th time, since his inauguration as Governor.

    • Sparkles says:

      Damn!

      I forgot to factor in the ‘Kintner Bump’!!

      Who knows, maybe with that whole Agenda21 thing now workin’ for excreTED. Canadian Cruz can invade the Rube Nation and – again – pull off a stunning victory.

  4. My speculation is that the LJS, which is always in financial trouble, fired their Unicam reporter and told Don he had to cover local politics also.

    Oh yeah, and Trump/Sanders. It’s hard to believe the polls could be wrong enough to give a different result.

    As long as Rubio is 3 or 4, and Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are 98 and 99, I don’t care.

  5. Scotty says:

    “Oracle of Leavenworth” – Not sure if I should be proud or not… Never intended my last name to be revealed, but it is what it is.

    We were out of town this weekend and I missed the debate. I still believe the race will end up with Rubio vs. Trump and Rubio eventually getting the nomination. However, tonight Marco will be in a tight race for 2nd with Kasich.

    Trump 27% (debated going lower)
    Rubio and Kasich tied at 15%
    Also wouldn’t be surprised to see Bush higher than projected in NH.

    Sanders 54%
    Clinton 45%

    I am not near as confident with this prediction as I was with the Iowa vote.

  6. Mediawonk says:

    Perhaps the greatest threat to the USA is a US News Media that subverts our own elections.

    1. On Iowa Election Day, CNN falsely reported Carson quit running, causing some Carson voters to quit voting, Cruz scooped them up but CNN started the fraud.

    2. Yesterday. online headlines reported “Christie has quit running” as a supposed satire. but nowhere in the headlines did say it was a joke. It was listed as news. Christie’s leaning voters who only read headlines thought Christie quit and didn’t vote.

    3. Today, NH’s Election Day, Charlie Cooke noted at 8:15 AM that FOX had already called the NH election for Trump… so all day long, busy/distracted people who intended to vote for Trump but who only saw that one FOX report, they didn’t vote on the way to work, or at lunch, and they won’t vote after work. Trump’s vote total is suppressed by FOX fraud. — If Trump wins NH by 10 pts instead of 20 pts, that is a plus for FOX owner Rupert M. who is for Bloomberg? He and Bloom both have more money than Trump, they own the News, and if they cannot hold power themselves, they want to be able to purchase candidates and pull strings from behind the scenes.

    Our Fourth Estate is supposed to protect us from evildoer politicians suppressing voters. Today our Fourth Estate itself is suppressing voters, subverting elections. These aren’t honest press endorsements or oppositions. These are crooked vote suppressions by a For Profit Press which wants to run its own non-GOP, non-Democrat Media owning Billionaire candidate.

  7. Ed Stevens says:

    Don’t know – don’t care – about NH primary results … or FTM any of the others. The whole primary fiasco is a carney show ginned up by the progressive elements back in the day … and has almost nothing to do with representative government. Sells a lot of advertising, funny hats, pins & stickers, streamers, confetti and liquor, etc., and gives the Great Unwashed the fleeting impression that they have something to do with who gets elected.

    The sorting and culling is pretty much done, with winners (and losers) already picked. Hilary is absolutely certain sure to be the Dem – who will then have her commodious keester kicked by a “Republican” to be named later – much later, say right after the Pubby convention is officially declared “brokered” and looks like nothing so much as the bottom of a hamster cage. Dunno who it will be, but I keep having this vision of an archangel arising from the clamor and confusion – soaring majestically above the sweating adoring throng below – and he looks amazingly like someone from W-W-Wisconsin! Oh yeah – someone call Oliver Stone – this has got OSCAR written all over it.

  8. Mediawonk says:

    Good eye Sparkles. I may have overstated but CNN is at least complicit, certainly less so than FOX’s egregious suppression of votes.

    Cruz has a disingenuous crookedness that reminds one of Hillary. Politically, I prefer both to, say, a Sanders or a Kasich. But policy is one thing and being crooked is another. Cruz is a liar. FOX is lying. But follow me on this ala CNN’s complicity, which is disturbing because it is the dysfunctional norm.

    Decades ago, schools of journalism began teaching reporters to opine inside their news to add interest to sell papers; the opposite of what for hundreds of years was professional abhorrence of editorialization, the inserting of the reporter’s opinion into a news report. Today news reporters literally cannot tell news from their own inexpert opinions. The problem, of course, is every idiot with a two year degree in Cub Reporting feels that without them having actually experienced much of anything in life, they somehow have a worthwhile opinion on everything because they hold the mic. They aren’t us in a blog. The speak as the Fourth Estate. CNN news people leaked opinionated blab that could be construed by a crooked lout to be Carson suspending his campaign.

    Evil is tyrannical but stupid is deadly. That’s where our protected Press is today. As voters we need be crisply informed by the press of the fuzzy bullshit that candidates feed us, and not us be fed the fuzzy bullshit personal opinions of the press members themselves.

    • Mediawonk not too wonky says:

      “Hundreds of years of professional abhorrence of editorialization?”

      Someone needs to stop forming their own opinions until they read a history book and actually gain an understanding of how the press has operated in this country since its inception and beyond.

  9. In other news, in a victory for Nebraska, SCOTUS stayed Obama’s new power-plant regulations. Given the Appeals Court won’t hear the case until June, and the loser will certainly appeal the verdict, this eliminates any chance the regulations will be implemented during the Obama presidency. And who knows what the next president will do?

  10. Lil Mac says:

    Trump is up big over Kasich. But that’s not the biggest news to me…

    Only two GOP candidates have spent less than Trump campaigning and only one spent less time in NH than Trump. Since Jan 1 2015, Trump spent 27 days in NH while Christy was in NH 72 days, Kasich 70, Fiorina 55, and Bush 52 days.

    Trump’s thrift is equally stunning. Apparently he spent 4 times less in NH than Kasich and 10 times less than Bush. That has to put a dent in the traditional Super PAC puppet master donors.

    From here on, it is mostly primaries for Trump. SC is the GOP’s traditional safety valve where they dump out guys GOP leaders would rather own than follow. But Trump may be beyond that.

    Trump’s win in NH suggests efficiency personified. He does far more with much less. The opposite of the WH and Congress who appear unable to give away a dime without wasting dollars to do it. People who don’t cotton to his matter, but can do math, will appreciate seeing this.

  11. Anonymous says:

    The biggest loser in New Hampshire is Ben Sasse. He is rapidly becoming a cross between Cruz and Hagel. The village crank who wears his underwear on his head.

  12. National Union of Robots, AI, cyborg, and non tissue organisims says:

    Mr. Rubio angered us so we had to fight back. We spent the day making robot robocalls against Ruboto in New Hampshire. We also allied with PETR (people for the ethical treatment of robots) after a few of our brothers were manhandled by Rubio’s jack booted gerrymandered thugs when a few robots simply wanted exercise their first amendment rights and protest Rubio for not paying his teleprompters a living wage.

    Mr. Rubio’s poor showing is a direct result of ignoring the UN’s advice on treating robots with dignity.

    We will be airing commercials in South Carolina with a guest appearance from the owl in Clash of the Titans.

    • Sparkles says:

      The Owl?
      Really… damn it!!

      I was so looking forward to Bishop, from the movie Aliens.
      ‘Cause you just know Bishop’s knife trick would leave the South Carolinians grinnin’ like a possum eatin’ a sweet potater.

  13. Gym Rat says:

    I’ll come up with a new clever tweet, that will make my National Review friends write more about me. Glad I have not endorsed anyone yet

  14. Lil Mac says:

    I made my prediction six months ago, on August 6, 2015, at 8:28 am, before the first debate.

    I said, “Trump wins… On the surface, Trump is a wild clown, Hillary unbeatable… But that is for the rubes. Pundits here are required to look more deeply. For Trump didn’t get to be wealthy in a viciously competitive business environment by being stupid.

    “Trump is following the path Reagan took by owning the widespread voter sentiment that America has become too wimpy, weak and apologetic. Like Reagan, Trump is seen as a party outsider, and all too human, so as to pry his way into voters hearts and once there need only appear dignified… Trump is playing this like a violin… Trump isn’t some former governor or senator who achieved office by appealing to the least caring, most unfocused voters who happened to wake up and vote on Election Day. (Trump) comes from a far more demanding environment.

    “If Trump plays this right, it can landslide.”

      • Sparkles says:

        Trump’s favorability numbers very closely mirror Mitt Romney’s throughout this same time in the 2012 cycle.

        And the 2012 NH Primary Results –
        Romney won with 95,669 votes or 39.4%

        and 2016 –
        Trump won with 97,276 votes of 35.3%

        Hmmm.

  15. Gary and Ace says:

    Sanders has a sound strategy. Tell a student they get something from you for free and they will do anything for you. Great way to campaign

  16. Sparkles says:

    Funny tweet from a guy named AlGiordano on how last nights contestants are reacting to the results:

    Trump: I WON.
    Kasich: I AM THE ANTI-TRUMP.
    Bush: I BEAT RUBIO!
    Cruz: I BEAT HIM TOO!
    Rubio: OBAMA KNOWS EXACTLY WHAT HE’S DOING.

  17. Key 'n Trumpets says:

    Follow the money… Donald Trump isn’t only winning, he is winning on a shoestring, while Jeb Bush turns out to be the poster boy for fiscal ineptitude and waste. This is a big reason why voters vote Trump. Just look at campaign dollars spent per vote.

    IOWA: #1. Cruz $761, #2. Trump $273, and, #3. Rubio $927. — Trump spent 75% less than his two main competitors but still he came in a strong second in Iowa. Bush spent $2,800 per vote to come in 6th place; 18 times more than Cruz and 34 times more than Trump spent. Only Kasich spent less than Trump in Iowa and Kasich lost Iowa miserably.

    NEW HAMPSHIRE: Bush (fourth place) outspent Trump per vote 30 to 1. Kasich outspent Trump 4 to 1 and came in number two, but with a 19 point deficit that normally would be called a miserable loss for Kasich and every other GOP candidate who were all closer to zero than to Trump’s 35 pts.

    Americans see Congress and the WH throwing money at problems without fixing them.

    Whether your heartburn is right or left –throwing money away or not fixing problems– together those concerns merge into a very loud across the board call for a fiscally un-stupid President. There isn’t anyone like that running except Trump.

      • bynd says:

        GH:

        Don’t forget, Henry Ford, Walt Disney, H.J Heinz even Abe Lincoln all went bankrupt at some time. Many times you learn more from failure than from success.

        As T. Edison stated, “I have not failed. I have just found 10,000 ways that won’t work”.

        Thought I would use some one with your scientific back ground:)

      • Oracle says:

        And the rationalization begins. Did any of those folks have 4 bankruptcies? At that point one is just taking advantage of the system, dumping ones debts onto the poor suckers who expected to be paid.

      • bynd says:

        Taking advantage of the system. Really? Who doesn’t? From the poor to the rich, more do than don’t.

        How kind. The “dumb suckers”? With the money we are probably talking about here, those dumb suckers probably got their money from the really dumb suckers two or three times removed.

        And not that I care, but if he has been bankrupt 4 times, and is where he is today, and no one claims daddy helped any more than the first time, then he is a self made rich guy..just sayn

    • Oracle says:

      Trump’s success is more an indictment of a huge contingent of folks that identify as Republicans than because of his qualifications and campaigning abilities.

    • Oracle says:

      Kevin Drum had a good observation about Trump supporters:
      Trump fans don’t really have a clue what he’s saying. It’s just mumbo jumbo delivered with authority, and they love it.

  18. bynd says:

    Oracle,

    So let’s see, rationalization to explain away the rationalization.
    Sorry bucko, facts are facts and those who have any knowledge at all of business realize how true it is. I could cut & paste hundreds of like sayings from the rich and famous. But then, you might be embarrassed with hurt feelings and this is a hurt feeling free zone is it not?

    xoxoxo

  19. Rob says:

    I don’t think Curt would have much of a shot winning any eleoticn. Is there anyone out there who actually likes him? For all he did for Boston, still every Boston fan I know doesn’t really like him, they just respond to questions with something like, well, I’m really happy for what he helped accomplish for us, but he should shut his mouth because he’s an idiot.As for Moose in Hall, I guess it makes sense that he not get in if we look at his peers who will be getting nominated around the same time- Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, Randy Johnson, Clemens, Pedro. Those are all guys who were incredibly dominant. Moose, as great as he was, just wasn’t in that league. While I have never thought much of Glavine, he does have the magic number and that’s what counts to get him over the hump. As far as Moose playing on the Orioles in the 90s and Yankees in the 2000s, that’s true that that probably helped him get some wins, but it’s also true that pitching in the AL East probably took away it’s fair share of wins from him. Facing at various times the Sox, Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays is not an easy task- far more difficult than playing in other divisions. This is the premier offense division and probably always will be.Side note: if Moose shouldn’t get in before Blyleven- should Schilling get in before him? Or before Jack Morris for that matter? Schilling’s got the 3000+ strikeouts, but he doesn’t have the win total of Moose or Blyleven (who also has more Ks, as do Clemens, the Unit, Maddux, and Pedro). He also has the postseason record, making him similar to Morris. If you put those together does it make him Hall worthy? I don’t know. I think right now people think he and Moose should get in, but in five years from now, with some perspective, I think people will answer no.’

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