Who’s Next (to drop out)?

Screen Shot 2016-02-10 at 11.40.07 AMOnly one more pre-season Primary before we get the regular conference Primaries, right?

The hard numbers from last night:

Trump 35%
Kasich 16%
Cruz 12%
Bush 11%
Rubio 11%

And the predictions from last night…
I was relatively close, saying

Trump 27%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 14%

But neither I, nor anyone else in the Leavenworth St. comment section had Trump over 30% (“Media Chump” had him at 30% — but then had Kasich at 7%).

And, arguably more importantly, no one else had Cruz beating Rubio, which, beyond Trump winning, was probably the biggest surprise of the night.

Many are now counting Rubio out. But if he does well in South Carolina, he will be right back in the hunt with Trump and Cruz for Super Tuesday.

But it was interesting that Rubio got pegged down so far, arguably all because of his debate performance — which I’d be willing to bet that most people didn’t even see last Saturday night. Many said that Rubio had a very good debate second half — but the only media story was about Chris Christie’s takedown.

So here is an interesting tidbit passed on by a reader…

Christie may be able to put in his diary that he twice helped get a Democrat elected.

In 2012, Romney had just a nose out in front of Obama in the RCP’s poll of polls, but then came Super Storm Sandy and Christie saying “it’s time to put politics aside” and giving Obama plenty of photo ops with grieving families.

Now he’s done a lot to cripple the most electable of the GOP contenders, which is Rubio.

Hmm. Though I’m not sure you can completely blame Christie for going after Rubio when he smelled blood. He certainly thought he had a chance in NH at that point. Question is, will Christie now step up and endorse Rubio? Or at least say he was just kidding about the robot stuff, or whatever.

Here is my early prediction for South Carolina:
It will effectively get rid of all except Trump, Cruz and Rubio.
And Rubio will do well enough to have a strong Super Tuesday campaign.

And the pressure will be on for Jeb, Kasich, Carson, and Fiorina to quit.
Especially Jeb, from those who want Rubio.

Your thoughts?

 

“So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time…”

In the mean time, former Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel talked at the Omaha Chamber of Commerce yesterday. And he told them how awful he thinks the Presidential candidates are.

So to contrast, Hagel brought up the GOP candidates from…1980.

“Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John Connally, Jack Kemp and Howard Baker.
They were decent, civil men. You just don’t see that today.”

OK, first of all…WTF?
If you want to call out Trump, fine. And it’s not hard to find people who don’t LIKE Ted Cruz. But I’ve never heard him called “indecent” or “uncivil”.

And Rubio, Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Carson and Paul? Hagel is saying that they’re not up to snuff on his decency and civility scale? Really?

Hagel has probably ALWAYS been an angry old man, but this sort of caps it.
Because he wants you to look at the election from THIRTY-SIX YEARS AGO.

How about this. How about if back in 1980, you said…

“You know when we REALLY had good candidates? 1944! THOSE were some candidates! Now we just have a washed-up Hollywood actor who wants to get us into WWIII, the privileged son of a Connecticut Senator and a mop-topped old NFL quarterback who has only been elected to the House!

“Now get off my lawn!”

(Mic drop.)

***

Oh, Lincoln Journal Star
I get that you need to make money. I get it.

But the new online layout for the paper?

This is what I got when I clicked on JournalStar.com:

LJS03

And then once the screaming ads moved a bit, I still got this:

LJS04

 

This is the “paper” that gets stuck at the bottom of my shopping cart that I never look at.

Screen Shot 2016-02-10 at 11.33.59 AMAnd why is it that the online version doesn’t even seem much like the print version. The stories don’t line up.

In the mean time, the hot news in the Lincoln Metro section is that Mayor Beutler has retired his campaign debt! Wow!
Now THERE’s some headline news.

 

A LOT of Budweiser

By the way, funniest post-New Hampshire Tweet:

(dannymoe regularly kills it…)

If you were following @LeavenworthSt on the Twitter, you would have already seen that.
Oh, and if you Like L.St. on The Facebook and/or subscribe, you will be updated whenever there is a new post as well.

Thanks all!

29 comments

      • Christie’s endorsement isn’t worth a hill of beans. Bush has already spent huge amounts of money and gotten very little; like Trump, he has the big problem that a lot of Republicans simply won’t vote for him. Cruz is falling. Kasich is nowhere in SC; and a GOP candidate can’t be nominated without the South. it’s time for a big Rubio push.

        Still a few days to go, but the pool is narrowing.

    • Well, TO, that’s an interesting extension. And yes, it works when installed. Thing is, I don’t mind the ads, if they’re reasonably placed — like on MY site for instance. Or the OWH’s (usually). But the LJS’s goes overboard, and I shouldn’t HAVE to use an ad blocker if I don’t want to.

  1. NE Voter says:

    Though badly battered, Bush will continue to climb after South Carolina. Cruz sinks like a stone after NC, and Rubio with him. Once they and Carson/Fiorina/Gilmore (lol) are out, Bush and Kasich will join forces and finally stop Trump.

    I see a Bush-Kasich ticket. And, yes, I do worry about the Florida-Ohio angle; though Clinton will win the general.

    • Sparkles says:

      I’m of the same opinion expressed here months ago, the GOP primary is a two man race – Trump and Cruz.

      Trump will float along on, suspended by his vacuous, incomprehensible bullsh^& for a few more weeks before Cruz begins to systematically take him apart.

      It’s going to be ugly and protracted.
      From it will emerge the most toxic GOP candidate since Barry Goldwater in 1964.

      Good times.

      • We made such a great choice in 1964, electing a candidate who escalated the Vietnam War into a bloodbath, and started the War on Poverty, which we also lost, expensively.

        We should have been so lucky as to have Barry Goldwater.

      • Sparkles says:

        I know I’m not supposed to quote stuff, but even Sweeper would have to appreciate this brief clip from Wikipedia, re the ’64 election:
        “The Republican candidate, Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona, suffered from a lack of support from his own party and his deeply unpopular conservative political positions. Johnson’s campaign advocated a series of anti-poverty programs collectively known as the Great Society, and successfully portrayed Goldwater as being a dangerous extremist. Johnson easily won the Presidency, carrying 44 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.”

        What’s that saying, again.. oh yes;
        History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes.

      • Of course Johnson won in a landslide. He then shipped a million young American men into the jungle, and simultaneously wasted $22tn in 2014 dollars on Great Society programs that didn’t change the poverty rate.

        You’re saying America will make the same mistake twice? Well, I admit, that’s the way to bet.

      • Sparkles says:

        Gerard,
        Re LBJ, “then shipped a million young American men into the jungle”

        And the the probability is high, many say irrefutable, that the Republican President that followed LBJ committed an act of treason for personal political gain.

        Nixon ran on a platform that opposed the Vietnam war, so in order to win the election, he needed the war to continue.
        It is widely believed that an aide, Anna Chennault, working for then-Presidential candidate Richard Nixon convinced the South Vietnamese to walk away from the Paris Peace talks.
        On November 2, 1968 Chennault informed the South Vietnamese ambassador: “I have just heard from my boss in Albuquerque who says his boss [Nixon] is going to win. And you tell your boss [S. Vietnam President, Thieu] to hold on a while longer.”

        Nobody disputes Chennault’s overt efforts to sabotage the peace talks. A dwindling handful dispute that her efforts were a primary factor in the failure of the talks.

        But the intent is resoundingly clear, leading one the ponder the obvious question –
        How many young American soldiers died between the dissolution of the Paris Peace talks in November of 1968, and April 29, 1975 when two young Marines, Charles McMahon (May 10, 1953 – April 29, 1975) and Darwin Lee Judge (February 16, 1956 – April 29, 1975) were the last two United States servicemen killed in Vietnam during the Vietnam War?

        Maybe we should now discuss the REAL history behind the inauguration of Ronald Reagan and the simultaneous release of hostages from Iran?

      • “I’m sorry, my crackpot theory that the President after LBJ made a deal with the Norks means LBJ didn’t ship a million men to SE Asia”

        Recess is over, Sparkles. Time to get back to class.

      • Sparkles says:

        As always, the hypocrisy is stunning.

        It is candidates of -your- party that as campaign strategy embrace and revel in war mongering in order to whip the angry base into a voting lather.
        It is the candidates of -your- party that the last two -Republican- Sec Defs have publicly denounced for their “embarrassing” proclamations and “childlike” understanding of national security issues.

        And the height of hypocrisy… beyond Trump promising to “bomb the shit of ’em” and Cruz promising a campaign of carpet bombing that will “make the sand glow”, there is no GOP candidate who more fervently embraces war as a central campaign issue than NoShow Marco.
        Young Marco has deliberately staked out a perch as the hawkiest hawk to ever hawk hawkishness.

  2. Sparkles says:

    To imagine Christie’s stroll with Obama doomed the presidential hopes of Mittens, is simply ignoring reality.

    Obama beat Romney, decisively, in 2012.
    The Electoral College tally was 332 to 206. It was an Electoral College drubbing with a 5 Million vote cushion.

    If you recall, Bush beat Kerry in 2004 by an EC margin of 286 to 251, and he and Turd Blossom declared that to be a “mandate”.
    If a 35 EC vote victory is a mandate, what is god’s name is 126 EC vote thumping?
    (Bush’s EC victory in 2000 was even narrower, capturing only 1 vote beyond the required minimum, at 271 to 266)

    It’s only the bulls$^& narrative of some crackpot’s “skewed polls” that led Romney and the Fox ‘News’ audience to imagine, even late into election night, that Romney had a shot at winning.

    • Wild speculator says:

      Small swings in the popular vote in some states would have made big differences in the EC totals, though, simply as a matter of how the EC functions. The thumping, while sizable, was not as big as some portray it.

  3. Wild speculator says:

    Predictions: Fiorina drops out before SC. Kasich, lacking any national organization or $$, drops out after SC, as does Carson. Trump and Cruz continue getting upper 20s lower 30s throughout the next several primaries, alternating who is the winner. Rubio beats Jeb repeatedly, but Jeb and his PAC, in a continuing “if I can’t have it nobody in the establishment can!” tantrum spend $70 million-plus against Rubio and refuse to drop out, preventing the establishment wing from consolidating in such a way as to be able to beat Trump/Cruz. Rubio nonetheless wins several states, but not as many as Trump or Cruz. The lack of a clear, consistent front runner and distribution of Trump/Cruz/Rubio victories both in proportional and winner-take-all-states, means that no one gets enough delegates to win the nomination outright.

    Convention is “brokered” – Paul Ryan is drafted, again, to save the GOP from the dysfunction of its warring wings, with Nikki Haley as his VP. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio each get cabinet positions. (Trump does not last long in his.)

    • Sparkles says:

      “Paul Ryan is drafted, again, to save the GOP from the dysfunction..”

      I’m assuming you haven’t noticed how that whole ‘Ryan as Savior’ thing is working out?

      Headline from 8 hours ago, NYT:
      “Paul Ryan’s Budget Strategy Collides With Conservatives”

      From Bloomberg:
      “Ryan Tested as Republican Faction Threatens to Upend 2017 Budget”

      • Wild speculator says:

        Sparkles – if we do get to a brokered convention, who do you think would be the eventual choice?

      • Sparkles says:

        Never thought about it.

        If I had to hazard a guess, and if by chance sanity somehow returned to Republican party, I’d go with Mitt Romney and Kelly Ayotte.

        Here’s my honest opinion –
        I don’t think a brokered convention is in the cards. I do find it a bit comical that the GOP billionaires have sat on the sidelines and allowed The Donald, one of their own, to pwn them.
        They’ll now get the one candidate on the planet they want less than Trump – excreTED Cruz.
        I find everything about Cruz repugnant. I think he’s a poses a danger to the stability of our economy, to global relations and to the welfare of more than one hundred million Americans.
        Americans who struggle against a rigged game in an effort to remain among the middle class.
        To the working poor who struggle simply to feed their families and to the elderly and the infirmed, who will be the target of yet more upward redistribution endeavors designed to take from those with the very least in order to reward those with much.

        Cruz is savvy and smart as hell.
        He’s saving his resources, keeping his powder dry, until a bit more of the primary clutter has fallen away. He’ll then take Trump apart like a surgeon.

    • Ed Stevens says:

      Wild Spec:

      Bingo … though not that sure of Nikki as Veeptress … could be Carly … or even (GASP!) Cherry County’s own Deb F. Oh … and Trump will get HUD and immediately declare bankruptcy, get fired, and spend his dotage running a string of Hair Club franchises.

  4. Lil Mac says:

    Fortenberry Endorsio d’Fiorina — b. OCT 8, 2015 – d. FEB 10 2016. REST IN PEACE

    I too liked Carly, for about three minutes. Then I googled and discovered she held one CEO job and got fired from it. That falls into the category of negative presidential quality. She iss now toast. And fatty Christie is also rendered. The stew thins as the plot thickens.

    This GOP primary is indeed a two man race – it is either Trump or The Donald. Or haven’t you been paying attention since last summer? Look at who spent what in Iowa and NH and how many days they were there. Trump is operating on a different level. And my guess is, he is a juggernaut now. But feel free to dab on the suntan lotion and lounge in his path.

  5. Sparkles says:

    Looks like Ricketts, the Kintner claque and the Nebraska Catholic Conference are going lose another high profile battle. This one with modernity.

    A new study by two UNL researchers finds that 74 percent of Nebraskans support laws that protect gay men and lesbian women from job discrimination.
    In urban areas the level of support exceeds 80%.

    Looks like young Adam Morfeld and the people of Nebraska as set to chalk up a win.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.