Where’s your hat…Donald!

Marlene Ricketts 02OK, Palmetto results from Saturday:

Trump: 32%
Rubio: 22%
Cruz: 22%

Leavenworth St. prediction:

Trump 32%
Rubio: 20%
Cruz: 19%

Not bad, eh?
(Similar guess was “midtown guy” in Comments section.)

 

Need a breakdown

But it is all, “guess” even more than “prediction”, right?

And I note that, because all of the predictions are actually guesses (in the broader, unknown sense) after Saturday’s vote.

Drudge says it’s Trump vs Hillary. Hugh Hewitt says…

I would assume that he has had his staff or saw someone else break down every state to come to that conclusion, but I haven’t seen it. What I have seen is that Trump is ahead in 10 of the next 14 states.

In Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s home state, Trump trails him by 6.7 percent, meaning he could still grab a chunk of the state’s 172 delegates.

Trump is currently ahead with a total of 61 delegates, 50 more than Cruz. The eventual nominee will need 1,236 out of 2,472.

What I haven’t really seen is a scenario where Trump DOESN’T get to 1,236 before the convention. Again, I’m always looking for this stuff, so if you see a full 50-state breakdown, please send it my way.

Otherwise, it’s all just a guess.

 

Revenge of the Red Hats

And you know who else is getting in on all things Trump?

The Rickettses.

This time, Mrs. Joe Ricketts surfaces:

(Marlene) Ricketts gave $3 million to Our Principles PAC — a group managed by Mitt Romney 2012 top aide Katie Packer, dedicated to destroying Trump’s candidacy — accounting for nearly all the funds the PAC raised in January. Our Principles sent anti-Trump mailers and ran Trump-bashing ads before the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina contests.

You’ll remember Marlene Ricketts from when she did an entire ad for her son Pete –jamming the red hat onto his head back in 2006:


Watch Pete Ricketts campaign video in News  |  View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

The Rickettses were big Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker supporters back when he was the early favorite. Since his drop out, there hasn’t been a big push from them for any other candidates.

There was some word that they were going to back Marco Rubio, and that could still very well be the case. But in the mean time, they are going hard anti-Trump, with Mrs. Ricketts’ name on the checks.

That should be some Twitter-war coming.

**UPDATE**

Moments after this post went up, this Tweet came up from…The Donald!

They have a lot to hide!“???!

Ruh-roh. This could get interesting…

 

Winner will Take All?

Don Walton makes a good point in his Monday column about the likely Winner Take All vote in the Legislature:

(Last year) a motion to invoke cloture to end a filibuster fell two votes short on a 31-18 vote.

All 13 senators who were Democrats plus Ernie Chambers, the one registered independent, voted no. They were joined by four senators who are Republicans: Ebke, John McCollister, Kathy Campbell and Paul Schumacher.

One of those 18 votes was cast by Jeremy Nordquist, a Democrat who no longer is a member of the Legislature. He has been replaced by Nicole Fox, a Republican.

So where will that leave WTA?

And how firm with current Republicans stand against the Democrats who originally wrote the law so that they could break off a 2nd District Elector in the traditionally Republican state?

 

Also “subscribes”

I will take your kudos for the above noted Palmetto predictions in the form of Likes and Follows on The Facebook and the Twitter, thankyouverymuch!

37 comments

  1. Sparkles says:

    Nice call SS and midtown.

    Emerson College Polling Society released last night the most current poll for the Massachusetts primary (March 1):
    Trump 50%, No-Show 16, Kasich 13, excreTED 10, eBENgelical 2.

    Someone needs to let Marlene know It’s too late.
    Their empty suit dujour will once again be rejected by the American people. The shopworn, repulsive, Atwater-style campaign skullduggery will no longer buy them victories. Only one time in the last 28 years have the GOP won the popular vote.
    Time for a little come-to-Jesus, no?
    Plus, how could one be unaware that such attacks only serve to animate and fortify the largely simple minds of Trump’s angered legions?
    Although, I must admit, I’m thrilled to see the Ricketts family continue to set more piles of their money on fire.
    Such a shining example, especially as they rally all the forces their money can buy in an all-out to deny affordable care to ten’s of thousands of Nebraska’s working poor, in the process, ensuring whole communities in Nebraska will face devastation as their nearby Critical Access Hospital shutters the doors and windows.

      • Sparkles says:

        Medicaid expansion would generate $174.8 million in state and local taxes, which would be more than enough to offset the $81 million cost to the state to expand Medicaid to 79,600 low-income, working Nebraskans.

        The state’s economy would conservatively avoid more than $1 billion in silent taxes, medical-related bankruptcies and unnecessary state spending in the next five years with expanded Medicaid.

        The state would receive nearly $2.1 billion over 5 years, drawing $992,000 daily in federal expansion funding and generating $5 billion in increased economic activity.

        Medicaid expansion would save, create and support 47,000 jobs between 2015 and 2020.

        Let’s compare that to Nebraska’s corporate welfare from program, originally known as LB775 (created for ConAgra), now call the Nebraska Advantage Act.
        An audit released in February 2013 by the Legislative Audit Office concluded that each job created with Nebraska Advantage Act economic development incentives in 2011 cost between $43,000 and $235,000.

        An article in the NYT in Dec 2012 said Nebraska spends at least $1.4 billion per year on all incentive programs, making it the third biggest spender in the nation per capita. That amounts to $763 per Nebraskan, per year.

        An An October 2012 special report by Nebraska Watchdog found the state’s own data shows most jobs subsidized by Nebraska Advantage Act incentives would have been created with or without the incentives.

        Under the Nebraska Advantage Act, TD Ameritrade received $6.8 Million dollars from Nebraska taxpayers between 2008 – 11.

      • Macdaddy says:

        Medicaid expansion is going to generate all that money? Well let’s just cover everyone in Nebraska through Medicaid. We’ll all be rich, rich, rich!

      • bynd says:

        Sparkles,
        I have to chuckle. I have spoken for years against LB 775. However, why do you disregard the Angel Investor’s act? Even Ricketts called it stupid but has done nothing to get rid of it. It is not as expensive as LB 775 but the purpose behind it is obscene.

        As to the rest. I don’t think there is anyone in the state who doesn’t want all Nebraskans to have affordable health care with reasonable deductibles. The last one is one of the weak points of the ACA. As much as I tried to research your figures, I can’t find them. Indeed, even the sponsors of this years bill only claim job increase of 10,000.

        Since the sponsors like to equate our bill with Arkansas, it only makes since to go and see what Arkansas says about their program. Ironically, it is their regular medicaid that threatens to damage other necessary programs, such as education, and is unsustainable in it’s current form. But expansion has it’s issues also.

        Do we have full risk managed care in Nebraska? It would seem that the answer is kind of, we have some. But, as we saw, the state, as usual, botched moving the mentally ill into community settings. Yet, that would be an integral part of making any medicaid program sustainable. Almost all relatives of state care residents fought the change.

        As usual, the Feds have put unreasonable restraint on expansion. No work requirements for one. In Arkansas, 40% of expansion folks have an income of 0. Our state seems to be adding an education requirement. Which means what? People need education to get higher paying jobs, but how do you afford that on $9.00 per hour. Haven’t seen any answers to that yet.

        But most of all, I have not been able to find anyone who uses actual data from expansion states to show your figures are even beginning to be true. And quite frankly, estimates like these, are rarely if ever accurate. Especially those produced by government.

        As such, the only data available, is the known budget and income of the state of Nebraska. And the income is a guess also. So, to be on the safe side, we would need to be able to fund expansion under our current conditions. Sorry, we already know what happens when you pass a law to find out what is in it.

        So the question remains, what part of the current budget are you willing to cut to fund expansion?

        I find it a simple question. Start with the State Dept. of Education. That would probably be all that is needed for now.

        And as for the Feds share going down below 90% and the program can be terminated. Does anyone, except a true moron, truly believe that would happen? A feel good talking point for supporters that has no basis in reality.

        I really do appreciate your effort. But the ACA, whose main purpose is not to provide health insurance to all, but to increase Fed control, is, like almost all entitlement programs, unsustainable. Especially when you add them all together. And even more egregious when there are less expensive but more effective ways to get insurance to all.

        11 million covered and 29 million still not covered. Oh, the first from the government and the second from Bernie. How much more will all that cost? We won’t know until we get them all insured.

        PS. Fact. My doctor’s office has 3000 patients. It is just a doctor and a PA, plus support staff. How many more patients can they take?

      • Reader says:

        The Dept. of Ed. is not as bloated as you believe, bynd. Well maybe it is bloated at your school district which gets additional federal funding for the military base there, and where you’re getting medicaid services within the school setting. But good place to ‘cut’ the state budget would be the LB775’s which you don’t like anyway. But those are contracts and the recipients might sue. At least the unicameral should not create any more of those contracts while the need for medicaid expansion is being debated. Too late. The unicameral has already passed more corporate welfare during the few years that medicaid expansion has been debated. And that’s the point Sparkles makes. We can always afford corporate welfare.

      • The Grundle King says:

        “And as for the Feds share going down below 90% and the program can be terminated. Does anyone, except a true moron, truly believe that would happen? A feel good talking point for supporters that has no basis in reality.”

        Truth. Can anybody imagine the caterwauling that would take place if Nebraska were to opt-out after the fed fails to meet their obligation? I shudder to think about how Sparkles would handle a) a documented failure of big daddy government, and b) kicking those enrolled through the expansion off of insurance.

      • Sparkles says:

        bynd,
        It’s of no surprise whatsoever you’re unable to find even and single bit of information that would challenge your ideology.
        Although all of this information has been presented in both the LJS and OWH, on multiple occasions, you somehow remain ignorant of it’s existence and are incapable of locating it’s detailed findings. Of course you were able to discover that Pete Ricketts and his stink tank Platte Institute brought Bryan King, a farmer and former nutball Republican state senator from Arkansas up to lie in front of the Unicameral about Arkansas’s expansion efforts. The same Bryan King who’s lone notable act in six years in the Arkansas senate was the introduction of a bill allowing concealed carry handguns in churches or other places of worship.

        Here, allow me to shed some light.

        April 1, 2015
        Economic Impact: Study of Medicaid Expansion in Nebraska
        Allan Jenkins PhD, UNK and Ron Konency PhD, UNK

        June 2015
        Nebraska’s Center for Rural Affairs
        The Bottom Line: Medicaid Expansion in Nebraska
        Jon Bailey, Director, Rural Public Policy Program

        August 3, 2012
        University of Nebraska Medical Center College of Public Health Center for Health Policy
        Policy Reports – Medicaid Expansion in Nebraska under the Affordable Care Act.
        Jim P. Stimpson, PhD, founding director of the UNMC Center for Health Policy

        Febr 2, 2016
        iVantage Health Analytics releases it’s annual Hospital Strength INDEX is the industry’s most comprehensive and objective assessment of rural hospital performance in the United States.
        It’s findings show that since 2010, more than 60 rural communities hospitals have closed. iVantage research has identified another 673 facilities that are now vulnerable or at risk for closure in 2016.
        One of the most important predictors of closure nationally was whether the hospital operated in a state that expanded Medicaid as part of the Affordable Care Act. Rural hospitals in states that did not expand Medicaid (including Maine) were twice as likely to close.

        Hundreds of rural hospitals, including most in Nebraska, are balancing on a knifes edge.

  2. Oracle says:

    Why are our “Village” mediaheads such idiots? Hewitt should know that because of the way the RNC structured the caucuses, Trump’s consistent 35% will get him well over the 50% of delegates needed to win outright. Again, the Republican leadership outsmarted themselves, expecting that one of “their guys” would be in the lead.

    • Sparkles says:

      Trump’s 32.5% in South Carolina garnered him 50 delegates.

      Rubio’s 22.5% = 0 delegates
      Cruz’s 22.3% = 0 delegates

      In no other state will Rubio have the advantages he had in South Carolina.
      Every prominent Republican lined up behind him and hit the campaign trail on his behalf.
      As reported by Bloomberg, more than $1.1 million was paid to South Carolina’s most knowledgeable operatives and political consultants, more than triple the amount of all his opponents combined.
      A state where he and his campaign and his SuperPACs invested months and months of time, announcing long ago SC would be their first major victory in their 3-2-1 strategy.
      Fox ‘News’ bellowing a 24/7 an all-Marco promo for weeks on end leading up to the primary.

      All this, only to lose by double digits to DumpsterFire.
      All this, to walk away without a single delegate.

  3. bynd says:

    Why is it when the libs attack conservative talk with much vitriol and nastiness, and the conservatives then denounce the libs with as much energy. The conservatives don’t hold Trump to the same standards they try to hold the libs too?

    • Macdaddy says:

      Did you miss the recent special edition of National Review entirely dedicated to the proposition that Trump must not get the nomination?

  4. Key 'n Trumpets says:

    The Ricketts are new money, naïve, moralistic and myopic. Joe thinks he can push his thick hams into political machines without getting pinched. He’s dumber than he thinks.

    Joe Ricketts backed Scott Walker, a big early loser. Now Ricketts isn’t backing anybody, just hammering Trump like Sasse hammers Trump. Yet Sasse is working toward a goal; i.e. to become the next Chuck Cruz or Ted Hagel. Ricketts however, by saying “anyone but Trump”, necessarily means anyone who takes Super PAC money and thus can be purchased by Mr. Super PAC Joe Ricketts.

    When Marlene Ricketts is trotted out against Trump, we think of poor Barbara Bush, wife and mother of presidents and governors paraded for her son Jeb who is right now as flat as Scott Walker. Marlene joins the Pope, RNC Chairman Priebus, and others in condemning Trump. But why? Not to promote her own son Pete but simply to hammer a self-funding Donald Trump so that daddy Joe Ricketts as a Super PAC billionaire can own some other GOP candidate/President like a puppet.

    Tactically, we have only to look at Ivanka and at Joe’s uber-lesbian activist liberal daughter, and at Pete’s moralistic gubernatorial image, to see how thin the Ricketts armor is.

    Worse, Joe is exactly the sort of fish Trump is looking to hook and skin.

    Strategically, Trump has many items on his kill agenda: political correctness, open borders, and Super PACs puppeteers like Ricketts. As far as Trump is concerned, destroying Ricketts to gain Trump more votes is fine with Trump. Trump is a counterpuncher. Joe is swinging first. And Joe is leading with his wife’s face, which is a dick move when you think about it.

    Ricketts isn’t trying to help any GOP candidate win. He is stabbing the GOP’s frontrunner. And he is risking his own son’s political career in the process.

  5. The Eye Ball says:

    On Trump, Newt Gingrich won South Carolina. Where did that go?

    Also, Trump has way too high of negatives. The longer his campaign goes on, the more enemies he acquires. If he gets the nomination, conservatives will bolt out of the party. If Trump does not get the nomination, he will try to run third party. Scary scenarios ahead, but I don’t see Trump locking this nomination up.

    • anon says:

      what the hell is a conservative in the republican party Romney, McCain, Rubio, congress, tea party, republicans in the legislature. Do they have a secret handshake and or ID cards. It appears the
      main real anti Trump faction is college graduates in the so-called conservative/republican party.
      Seems that it is to settle with running the establishment candidate seeking a win but maintaining the status quo either way, bolting would be win-win

  6. Just say No to Fascism says:

    Governor Pete Ricketts put his own mother up to sending out more millions to defeat GOP frontrunner Trump, than Trump is spending running for President.

    Ricketts family is the main Super PAC trying to kill Trump who is running in broad daylight. And the Ricketts are not happy being outed from the darkness. They wanted to be an invisible force subverting the will of GOP voters in secret, so they could privately own a President. They had a puppet in Scott Walker but he folded quick. So the Ricketts’ are basically wealthy and stupid. That’s good news for democracy. Exactly what Americans hate about politics. The hidden rats.

    Pete Ricketts is having his family stab GOP voters in the heart.

    Good news is, Trump seems to be overcoming this by sheer GOP voter over-support. So, if the Ricketts family loses all their money and have to eat out of dumpsters, that’s a plus for freedom and democracy.

    Pete Ricketts turned out to be a sneaky fascist. Who saw that coming.

    • Sparkles says:

      They’ve got a heart. It’s just really tiny, and only beats when in the presence of someone else’s checkbook.

      You’ve confused the GOP for the Tinman. It was he who was in search of a heart.
      The GOP is, quite clearly , the Scarecrow.

      And of course it’s the Ricketts family, all huddled behind the curtain, frantically yanking levers and spinning dials.

  7. Matte says:

    Glitter and Sparkle. Never assume inability or lack in your opponents lest you end up in a grave they got you to dig.

    GOP voters have hearts as big as those of Democrats. It is just that Republicans use their hearts to be patriotic while Democrats use theirs to be altruistic. Frankly, they are both full of shit.

    Feelings are hormonal squirts from your glands. And that doesn’t do any good when you are trying to rationally assess serious choices.

  8. Elkorn Voter says:

    I see Chuck Hagel is doing a fundraiser for Lou Ann Linehan at Indian Creek Golf Club in March. No conservative in our district supports Chuck Hagel. Both Hagel and Linehan supported the Obama administration.

  9. Bluejay says:

    We look like the worst Balkanizing fool to the rest of the country without WTA for the Electoral College.

    What if CA, IL or OH went that way?

    Message to Dems. The United States was not formed along the lines of Congressional districts. States formed the Union.

    Perfect example of how irrationally political the Dems are about everything.

    • Oracle says:

      I agree that nationally allocating by CD would be a mistake. Too easy to manipulate CD boundaries allowing a party to have more “votes” than deserved based on population and party registration. However in Nebraska it does help to generate at least some enthusiasm (and outside money) when a CD is in play. Expect very minimal campaigning and attention if we go back to WTA. The ultimate solution is National Popular Vote so politicians can’t simply work the swing states.

      • Oracle says:

        Nebraska completely irrelevant…

        Tell me, Bluejay, how is that different from now? There is ZERO incentive for a presidential candidate to campaign in ANY state that always votes predominantly one way. At least with NPV, my vote counts the same as a vote in Ohio, so there is > 0 incentive to come here.

  10. Anonymous says:

    Democrats aren’t very democratic.

    Dem super-delegates always mean 15% of every Dem national convention are party hacks who vote against the will of Dem voters. 85% of Democrat voters are always ignored. That’s why Bernie and Hillary, who have exactly the same number of delegates from three elections, end up today with Bernie having only 60 and Hillary having many hundreds of delegates. Its a big finger to Dem voters.

    GOP super-delegates are fewer and, more importantly, they all must vote as their state GOP voters voted. So at least the initial convention vote always reflects 100% of the will of GOP voters.

    Democrats say Republicans are overly structured but it certainly looks like Democrats try to impose tyranny inside their party, over their own voters, and over Americans.

    • Oracle says:

      11:59, why don’t you study a subject before ignorantly posting? The super delegates will eventually switch to the candidate that wins the voter’s delegates. Happened in 2008 when super delegates were initially for Clinton, not Obama.

  11. bynd says:

    Sparkles:

    You never disappoint. My info came from the Stephen Group study of medicaid in Arkansas, TSG. Sorry I don ‘t go to your tinfoil hat sites.

    You have no doubt some relevance to the figures you present. Problem is, no report made with in the boundaries of this state are unbiased.

    That is why I asked the simple question, what state that has expanded medicaid shows that these predictions may be true.

    You can get snarky and offended all you want. But since you didn’t answer the question about state examples, there must not be an answer.

    But I understand that you would be one to go and buy a new house and car on the promise of a raise. But the point you cemented is that government spends money on the what if principle. And, as we have seen, few if any of the promises of the ACA have been fulfilled, or even come close to reality.

    Any way, I hope expansion goes through in Nebraska, as TGK pointed out, since all this medicaid expansion will make us a rich state, the tax cuts must be coming. I think I’ll go buy a new house based on all that.

  12. Silver Bob says:

    Here in NV, my caucus is being held at The Moonlight Ranch. A large Mexican with a tire iron stands behind us while they pass out the scraps of toilet paper and we vote. We start the caucus with the pledge of allegiance and end by passing around hand sanitizer.

  13. bynd says:

    Sparkles,

    Sweeper please forgive the cut and paste. Sometimes it is the only way to answer Sparkles and not hear about his tinfoil hat web sites.

    From USA today: But critics say the ACA is also accelerating the demise of rural outposts that cater to many of society’s most vulnerable. These hospitals treat some of the sickest and poorest patients — those least aware of how to stay healthy. Hospital officials contend that the law’s penalties for having to re-admit patients soon after they’re released are impossible to avoid and create a crushing burden.

    “The stand-alone, community hospital is going the way of the dinosaur,” says Angela Mattie,

    Low Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements hurt these hospitals more than others because it’s how most of their patients are insured, if they are at all. Here in Stewart County, it’s a problem that expanding Medicaid to all of the poorest patients -– which the ACA intended but 23 states including Georgia have not done, according to the federal government — would help, but wouldn’t solve.

    Rural hospitals have been on the edge for a long time.

    Sparkles debunked once again. If sweeper let’s this pass. PLEASE!

    • Sparkles says:

      Thank you citing yet another article that states, unequivocally, Medicare expansion would in fact help rural hospitals.
      This is why every rural hospital administrator and every hospital organization in the nation is in favor of Medicaid expansion.

      Is it a panacea?
      No.

      Rural community hospitals are faced with a demographic curse that has been building for decades – rural communities are filled with a much higher percentage of older, poorer, sicker Americans, most of whom rely solely on Medicare or Medicaid as their insurance.

      Numerous pieces of legislation have been crafted by congress specifically to address the needs of rural hospitals. Thoughtful legislation crafted by some truly brilliant people that could stabilize our rural health centers. But of course, no matter the merit, this legislation goes nowhere. When the anti-government, tea-addled Republican party took control of Congress, it borought with it the nefarious distinction of, back to back, the two least effective sessions of Congress in American history.
      And in case you missed it, both McConnell and Ryan have actually gone on the record to promise not a F%^&ING thing will be accomplished this year!
      And the ill-informed Republican base APPLAUDS this obfuscation and dysfunction!!
      WooHOO say the rubes, WooHOOO!!! BURN IT DOWN!!

      The very same group of old, angry, rural folk who raise their pitchforks the highest and drag through their main streets floats with our President in an Out House, are the ones watching their children flee their dying communities and their neighbors assume room temperature due to lack of adequate care.

      You probably don’t know it, but you missed the mark on this one bynd.
      No matter, you keep googling away (hint – WorldNut Daily). I’m sure you eventually dig up some paid hack who will actually tell you medicaid expansion is bad for rural hospitals, clean water is over rated and our Kenyan born, gay bath house frequenting, muslim sympathizing, illegitimate, manchurian President is the worst in history.

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