Apologies & Polls

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 2.15.51 PMWell, dear readers, I’m sitting here in the store waiting for a phone to get fixed. It wouldn’t be the end of the world if they served coffee and scones in here. because the wait means that I could down an extra large Joe and 5 or 6 breakfast items.

Alas.

So, a few observations while I coast on the free Wifi (pronounced, “wee-fee”, like my dad does…)

 

Kintner

State Senator Bill Kintner told Coby Mach on KLIN the other day that he had sent out an “apology” letter to all of his constituents recently — as he continues to mull over his future in the legislature.

As now published, here was the pertinent part:

If you live long enough in this fallen world, you will eventually find yourself in a situation where you said something or did something that falls short of your own standards, let alone God’s perfect standard. Unfortunately, that is where I found myself over a year ago.

I misused my state-issued computer for personal use. The Nebraska Accountability and Disclosure Commission fined me $1000. I have paid the fine. I take full responsibility for my action.

(Emphasis added.)

Allllllriiiiighhht?

He goes on in the letter to talk about confessing and apologizing to his wife and the like.

But…”misused my state-issued computer for personal use,”?

Sort of sounds like he accidentally made his Fantasy Football draft on the MacBook Air instead of on the home Dell.

As opposed to…doing something that ended up with an extortion attempt.

Look, it would be surprising to see Kintner use more exacting language in this type of letter. But something just a little closer to the truth wouldn’t hurt.

…if he plans on staying in his gig.

If he is planning to quit, maybe it doesn’t make any difference anyway…

To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow, Creeps in this petty pace from day to day, To the last syllable of recorded time.

 

Poles

KMTV’s Nick Starling talked to the local Trump and Clinton campaigners to get their takes on the ground games in the 2nd District Presidential campaigns — getting takes from Preston Love, Jr. and Hal Daub.

The Hillaryites are opening a couple offices, and Trump seems to be worrying about other, more Electoral Vote-rich areas (though the Trump campaign isn’t exactly known for their current ground game either).

One note is that Starlings says,

According to Nate Silver’s fifty-thirty eight polling–Clinton leads Trump by eleven points Wednesday evening in the second district.

However Real Clear Politics has Trump with the slight edge.

I’ve noted this to Starling before on the Twitter, but the 538 numbers are based on almost nothing.

“There’s been no polling in the district yet, so its position on this list is based on the model’s guesses based on its demographics and voting history.”

And it is not clear what RCP poll he is referring to, as RCP itself does not poll.

FWIW, Larry Sabato recently switched NE02 from “Lean Republican” to “Lean Democrat”.

Two weeks ago, in his “Crystal Ball” he said,

“After looking carefully at Nebraska’s 2nd District…we’ve decided that NE-2 is leaning toward Clinton. It isn’t much of a lean, and it’s possible that if Trump can tighten up the contest, this one will wobble back to the Republicans.”

Unclear is “carefully” is based on actual polling numbers.

 

Shatel

And since football is just a few days away, a kudos to sportswriter Tom Shatel.

Shatel’s columns are almost always very good, and his recent one on T.O. is no exception. Worth your read.

(And it is interesting that he seems to disagree with Barfknecht’s suggestion that the Huskers have gone soft.)

 

Social!

The Twitter: @LeavenworthSt
The Facebook: Leavenworth St.

18 comments

  1. Sparkles says:

    It was two days ago that PBS’s NewsHour did a tally of the number of Trump and Clinton field offices (including joint offices for the campaign and the party).
    Clinton and the Democratic Party had 291. Trump and the Republican Party had 88.

    And since Trump’s campaign has publicly stated it would leave the field efforts to the Republican Party, one would likely be safe in assuming that of the 88 joint offices, an overwhelming majority are of the generic ‘Republican’ variety.
    Although, a bright note for Trumpsters-Florida, the campaign said they’re approaching the sunshine state in an all new way – instead of stodgy old campaign offices filled with phone banks, literature, yard signs and the bustle of motivated volunteers, Team Trump-Florida is relying on “mobile field offices” – aka – buses.

    Donald Trump isn’t campaigning for POTUS.
    This is simply a prolonged promotional tour for Brand Trump.
    Last nights 98 minutes of screaming by the Donald clearly demonstrates he, Bannon and Ailes have abandoned any and all efforts to expand the electorate enough to win in November.
    It’s all now simply performance art, designed to lock down and light up an audience for the roll out of Brand Trump and The Great Grift.

    Yes siree, The Donald is a real 21st Century Elmer Gantry.

    • anon says:

      good job sparkles,pretty much a CNN /broadcast news take, Clinton should have a big ground game for the money from she is spending.the Clintons have graduated from a bed and breakfast White House to selling passports. Do you have any figures on the retching factor of the sea hag’s personna.
      As Trumpy was yet to arrive yesterday her face as she was blowing her mouth looks like she was approaching critical mass. Good thing it’s a holiday weekend, she can get some extra rest

  2. bynd says:

    One can see how progressive Dems would stand by the old way for POTUS campaigning. It has worked for them the last two cycles. But, even Obama changed things in his first run.
    If Trump gets elected, he is a genius. If not, well, try something thing different next time. Mitt sure got stomped under the old system. But isn’t it funny, when something new comes along, the stodge old guard always vilifies it. Until it works and they look like the fool. And things will always change.

    What’s even more interesting is how someone from one side, who basically has no idea how the ground troops for the other side think, can foretell what impact some one they totally detest, is having on those on the opposite side. Which of course doesn’t cloud their judgement at all. Even when predicting what the independents, who they absolutely have no idea about, will do.

    I wonder if anyone has ever done a study on all the free publicity a candidate gets when their opponent mentions them in any manner?

    Polls this far out are for fools and those who have no other life than politics. A pathetic life indeed.

      • bynd says:

        The type of poll is not relevant. It is always the timing. How far away from the election is the poll taken.

        With debates and other campaigning to be done, no one knows what may be or if there will be a game changer before the election. And history shows that the most accurate polling happens right before the day votes are cast. All the rest up to that point is the pollster fine tuning his poll. (That looks a little strange in print:)

        And the media looking for something, anything, to print to bring in readers.

        And I will credit the Huntington post for some of this. they have some excellent articles on polls. But even our own Gallup will tell their most accurate polls are right before the election day. As in the day before.

  3. Beyond Stupid says:

    Someone was polling last week. Took about 6 minutes. She was calling from Virginia and it relied heavily on the verbiage “Independent”. Clearly a push Poll to piggy back on those bazillion commercials where Brad calls himself a Leader; a Non Partisan; and Independent. Mind you I said Brad calls himself those things, no one else does…

    BTW, could someone let Channel 3 know that Brad hasn’t been a Republican since he changed Parties to run for Mayor; or since he changed Parties again to run for Congress.

  4. The Eye Ball says:

    Streeet Sweeper, the Kintner mailing had to be professional. To go in to details would have been too tawdry.
    By the way, Sens. Bob Krist and Chambers are digging a hole to no where. Us political junkies may be intrigued but the public does not care about cybersex and won’t tolerate the Unicameral wasting time on such matters. Those that do care are going to focus on the IT director.

  5. Bluejay says:

    Tom Osborne is the greatest person in the history of Nebraska. Not even a close question. And I’m not even much of a Husker football fan.

    • Anonymous says:

      Osborne is only the sainted perpetuator of the rank idiocy that is collegiate football. Land grant universities were not founded to perpetuate some sports-entertainment-money complex, with higher education as some auxiliary activity. Dynamite”Memorial Stadium” and raise it to the ground. The only team I follow is our Armed Forces.

      • bynd says:

        Why is it you believe that education is only possible in the classroom from books and few practicums? Look at last nights Nebraska football game. First time Nebraska had to punt. What an outstanding lessons for a couple of hundred athletes. 90,000 Nebraskans and who knows how many watching on TV to learn. Go to the young man who got the penalty for his celebration after cold cocking a guy. I’ll guarantee you that he will have a lot good lessons drilled into his head by many on the team.

        When I went to AF basic in 1971, the custom was for the TIs to select a dorm chief from the newbies within a few days of a new class arriving. Dorm chiefs were in charge when the TIs weren’t there. Within my flight were 3 former ROTC guys. The person to be picked dorm chief however, was an individual who spent a lifetime of playing sports. How is it he got picked over the ROTC guys?

        Don’t all military academies have sports team? Are they not all used for learning experiences? Aren’t sports encouraged even in war zones during down time?

        You seem to be out of touch with college sports and even sports in the military. Learning is not just for the classroom. And one of the best classrooms is the sports field.

  6. bynd says:

    If Kintner came up with the greatest answer to one of the most vexing problems in the state, and his fellow senators wouldn’t work with him, says a lot more about the fellow senators than Kintner.

    When you start ignoring a source because of extraneous reasons, you become the problem.

    • Anonymous says:

      Kintner isn’t capable of coming up with any answer to any problem. He has demonstrated his inability to do anything than be a stooge over and over again. Name one original thought he has had ever. How would anyone ever trust his judgement? He jacked off on a public computer to a russian prostitute he was stupid enough to think was into him and tries to pass it off as purely extortion and think his fake redemption story will convince any rational person to ignore his clear lack of any common sense and judgement. Had she had a bit more restraint, who knows how many public jerk sessions she would have baited him into. Who knows how many other similar episodes just aren’t known about.

      No senators would work with him before his public masturbation habits came to light. He was tolerated only because of his wife, who at this point has proven her total lack of judgement and common sense as well. Once caught, they have decided their version of personal liberty is “look what they did so why can’t I expose my penis and achieve orgasm on a public network”. Their blatant hypocrisy is as much an issue as his actions. Throw mud, so he seems somehow clean.

      You should commend anyone who has the judgement to distance themselves from a man who talks about his wife’s “great tits” at official functions, calls those who use social services “parasites” during public hearings, and preaches transparency while shielding secret University searches. It says they have some degree of judgement and aren’t willing to prostitute basic standards of decency in exchange for a vote.

      Talk in hypotheticals all you want. Bill Kintner’s portfolio of boorish behavior and poor judgement is very real, capped off with a crowning achievement of public masturbation on camera.

      • bynd says:

        Thanks for proving my point.

        I would say your list of accomplishments in the Nebraska legislature is very impressive. If I could find one.

        I would also point out, this site is one big “if”.

      • Sparkles says:

        Thank you Anonymous, for the crisp, biting wave of sanity.
        An ever more rare manifestation on this site.

      • bynd says:

        Sparkles, you should have a better opinion of yourself. Maybe find a Dem in this state you can point to as one you want to emulate.

  7. Lil Mac says:

    “Ground game”? That sounds is like Staskiewicz standing on the corner of 72nd and Dodge with women wearing judge robes waving gavels. Ground game is old stuff.

    Did we not learn from the Primary that ground game works in caucus? Democrats all caucus and the GOP caucuses were few and early in the Primary. Caucuses don’t impact the general. But go ahead and ground-game it toward Hillary. Good luck getting her to go door to door handing out flyers when she won’t allow reporters on her flights from one fundraiser to another lest she start barking and chasing her tail.

    As for polling, you cannot poll asymmetrical candidates or threatened supporters. And polls, even when they do work, don’t predict as well in races like this. Polling in Second District is iffy at best. But, frankly, if we have a man running and a woman hiding, that has more impact than anything else. Then too, Hill ain’t Bill. Neither is she Barack.

    2D voters picked Obama once not twice. Hillary amounts to a third time for policy. But she hasn’t Barack’s or Bill’s appeal. And any machismo Bill exudes for cuckolding his wife, isn’t seen as noble womanhood on her part for sticking with him. Nebraskans understand that politicians are shits. But they despise a shit lying to him or herself, as Kintner tries to do, and as Hillary tolerating Monica does. Frankly, being Dicksmith Bill isn’t the same as being the Dicksmith’s wife.

    Ultimately, Trump is being an active candidate and Hillary is being kept in a cage. That is hard not to notice. Even the main press is grumbling about her being a hermit.

    THERE ONCE WAS A HERMIT NAMED HILLARY
    WHOSE HUSBAND HAD SEX IN A DISTILLERY
    SHE STUCK WITH THE LOUT
    FOR SHE ENVIED HIS CLOUT
    THINKING SHE’D GET ELECTED WILLIE-NILLARY

    We shall see, won’t we?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.