New poll: Trump leads Hillary in #NE02

img_9186A poll done by Emerson College has Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District:

Trump: 49%
Clinton: 40%

The poll of 700 Likely Voters Statewide was taken September 25-27 — the day of and two days after the first Presidential debate. The MOE was 3.6%.

The Statewide numbers, as well as Nebraska’s other two Congressional Districts looked like this:

Nebraska Statewide:
Trump: 56%
Clinton: 29%
Johnson: 7%
Stein: 1%

Trump: 53%
Clinton: 29%

Trump: 65%
Clinton: 20%

As you know, Nebraska splits its Electoral Votes, and Hillary Clinton is pushing hard to win the single vote in Nebraska’s 2nd District.

A few other notes from the poll:

  • Among primary voters in Nebraska, Clinton is getting 57% of Bernie Sander primary voters while Trump is taking 15%.
  • Trump is winning 88% of those who voted for Senator Ted Cruz but only 28% of John Kasich primary voters; 22% of Kasich voters favor Clinton.
  • Trump is also winning Nebraska Independents, 43% to 24%, and 17% of Democrats, compared with Clinton, who has 9% of the Republican vote.
  • Both genders are breaking for Trump by large margins. He leads Clinton 59% to 27% with men and 53% to 32% with women. Trump also leads with all age groups.

Emerson is doing polls throughout the country.


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  1. Ian Swanson's Buddy says:

    Ian, remember that time we were playing Grand Theft Auto 5 and your mom came down and asked what the hell we were listening to? Are you gonna get your own place if you get elected?

    • Hypocrite much? says:

      People on this very blog made fun of Amanda McGill for years for working part time at Target, in addition to running a non-profit and also a successful career in journalism before taking up public service.

      Now a kid (and I mean kid) who works at a coffe shop and lives with his parents can’t be made fun of on this blog?

  2. Stan says:

    If you factor in the margin of error Trump is only leading CD2 by 1.8%. Or does that only apply if the poll shows a democrat leading?

  3. Sparkles says:

    I saw a clip of Trump’s CB appearance. I listened to his all-out attack on HRC that incited a fervent, screamed chant from the audience of ‘lock her up, lock her up’.
    It was an appearance the lead the Des Moines Register to pen this headline – “Contempt for Clinton tops passion for Trump in Council Bluffs”

    The palpable hatred that Trump masterfully stirred in his adoring legion reminded me of a NYT’s book review, published just two days ago. A review that will grab your brain and shake it hard.
    It’s titled: “In ‘Hitler,’ an Ascent From ‘Dunderhead’ to Demagogue”

    The opening paragraph (please forgive the quote) –
    How did Adolf Hitler — described by one eminent magazine editor in 1930 as a “half-insane rascal,” a “pathetic dunderhead,” a “nowhere fool,” a “big mouth” — rise to power in the land of Goethe and Beethoven? What persuaded millions of ordinary Germans to embrace him and his doctrine of hatred? How did this “most unlikely pretender to high state office” achieve absolute power in a once democratic country and set it on a course of monstrous horror?

  4. Lil Mac says:

    For reference, from RCP, Nebr 2008, McCain +14.9… Nebr 2012, Romney +21.8… Nebr 2016, Sept 25/26, Trump +27.

    Okay, it’s only a snapshot. And before the first debate no less. So let’s look just at the impact on Nebraska politics. Specifically, Sen. Sasse as a national leader of #NeverTrump. (Romney and Beck don’t face reelection, Sasse does.)

    Is Sasse now the champion of royal dynastic political establishment?

    The top #NeverTrump money spigot, Joe Ricketts, recently went Full Trump. Since Joe’s son governs and the other Senator is with Trump, Sasse seems aground locally. And yet what hasn’t fully sunk in perhaps is what it means for Bush 41 to endorse Hillary the Democrat.

    It is as if all the warnings made by the various Cromwells (Fiorina, Carson, Trump and Sanders) against political dynastic establishment, rose up in King George I’s head and popped. George I is angry that Prince Jeb didn’t ascend to become George III. Ironically, it was Queen Mother Barbara who said “We have had enough Bushes.” She said that using the “imperial we”. The result is an endorsement of the coronation of a rival sept’s claimant to become Clinton II (Mad Queen Hillary.) Where does that leave Nebr’s Senator Ben Sasse?

    When you stop to think about it, the fact that we have to differentiate presidents as “41” and “43” is rather obvious proof of dynasty politics. But the blinding nature of political correctness isn’t partisan. It blinds right, left and all parties. This absorbs slowly. Yet, if Sasse thinks he’s not abetting this while voters are in a mood to see royal heads lopped, you have to wonder what Sasse is seeking to achieve. In any case, we may well expect a GOP primary challenger to style Ben Sasse as the Royal Holder of the King’s piss bucket. Hey, times are tough. A job is a job.

  5. Sparkles says:

    This morning’s Lincoln Journal Star was unequivocal in calling Hal Daub a liar
    The whole retraction thing (by LJS) Daub is pushing is B.S. From today’s article –
    “Regent Hal Daub of Omaha on Tuesday said in an interview with the Journal Star that the three players who knelt during Saturday’s game should be removed from the team.

    Daub was interviewed late yesterday on KLIN by Coby Mach.
    It was comical.
    Daub, Mach, Ricketts, the KFAB wingers, are all running directly in the bright blue flames of a massive blowtorch that is the reasoned response by the University leadership, a unanimous UNL student government and most of their peers All of whom are effusive in their support of MRI.
    “I want every student, faculty and staff member to know that I am unwavering in my support of your right to participate in these dialogues in the manner you choose under the First Amendment and University of Nebraska policy,” Bounds wrote.

    Reality is a harsh mistress.

    • bynd says:

      Daub, Mach, Ricketts and KFAB wingers. They represent you also Sparkles in the media you fear the most, the national media. (I am embarrassed to be a Nebraskan.)

      To the rest of the world, you are but another right wing rube from Nebraska. The irony is great.

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